Flash Flood Warning 67, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WGUS72 KGSP 280617
FFSGSP
NCC119-179-280730-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
215 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 330 AM EDT FOR UNION AND
MECKLENBURG COUNTIES...

AT 155 AM EDT...COUNTY OFFICIALS REPORTED THAT NUMEROUS ROADS AND 
BRIDGES WERE COVERED WITH WATER IN UNION COUNTY. IN MECKLENBURG 
COUNTY NO ROADS WERE REPORTED TO BE CLOSED. RADAR ESTIMATED THAT A 
LARGE PART OF CENTRAL UNION COUNTY HAD SEEN 3 TO 4 INCHES OF 
RAIN...WHILE FARTHER TO THE WEST...RAINFALL TOTALS IN MECKLENBURG 
COUNTY WERE ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. 

AS OF 205 AM EDT...RAIN HAD ENDED FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THESE 
AREAS. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WAS DEVELOPING TO 
THE SOUTH OF THE WARNING AREA...AND PRECIPITATION RATES WILL BEGIN 
TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER UNION AND MECKLENBURG COUNTIES WITHIN THE 
HOUR.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
WINGATE...WAXHAW...STALLINGS...MONROE...MATTHEWS...MARSHVILLE...
HUNTERSVILLE...DAVIDSON AND CORNELIUS.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE 
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE 
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS 
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG.

LAT...LON 3484 8037 3483 8079 3494 8078 3504 8086
      3538 8094 3551 8095 3550 8078 3540 8076
      3534 8069 3528 8067 3516 8046 3516 8040
      3513 8037 3511 8035

$$

MCAVOY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
932 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2004

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
CENTER OF JEANNE LOCATED BETWEEN MCN AND AGS. BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS
MOVING N ACROSS UPSTATE SC ...WITH CELLS TRAIING E TO W ALONG BAND.
AS THIS BAND REACHES BLUE RIDGE ESCARMENT...EXPECT RAINFALL RATE TO
INCREASE. REPOPULATED QPF GRIDS WITH NEW HPC DATA...THOUGH MAY BE
TOO LIGHT ON ESCARPMENT. FLOOD WATCH TO REMAIN UP THROUGH TUE. WINDS
HAVE BEEN GUSINT TO 35 MPH AND THAT WAS BEFORE CONVECTIVE BAND
ARRIVED. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK OF JEANNE/S CENTER AND TOO WEAK WITH
WIND. CURRENT WINDS GRIDS CLOSE TO GFS...WHICH HAS HAD BEST HISTORY
WITH SYSTEM. SINCE OLD GRIDS HAVE BETTER VELOCITIES THAN MODELS...
WILL STICK WITH THEM. WIND PRODUCTS TO REMAIN UP THROUGH TUE. LITTLE
CHANGE TO CATEGORICAL POPS AND CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS
RUNNING CLOSE TO 18Z MAV DATA...BUT FORECAST MIN TEMPS ONLY A
DEGREE OR SO BELOW MANY CURRENT TEMPS...SO REDUCED MIN T BY ANOTHER
DEGREE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2004

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE REMNANT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH JEANNE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
NEAR MACON GEORGIA...AND CONTINUES A NORTH-NORTHEAST DRIFT. THE
CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE ON MORE OF A TRUE NORTHEAST MOVEMENT
OVERNIGHT...AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST STATES.
FOR MOST OF THE DAY...THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED W/
JEANNE HAS BEEN W/IN THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE FROM NORTH TO
WEST OF THE CYCLONE. CATEGORICAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS NOW AFFECTING
MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF I-26...WITH MORE SHOWERY TYPE ACTIVITY EAST
OF THERE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...WILL CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS IN
ALL LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...AS THE CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUES TO
PUSH NORTHEAST. SUSPECT THERE WILL BE A NOCTURNAL FLARE UP OF
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST QUAD OF THE LOW OVERNIGHT...MUCH AS WE
OBSERVED WITH FRANCES AND IVAN. THEREFORE...THE MAJOR FLOODING
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE PATH OF THE CYCLONE...AND
IN AREAS ALONG THE EASTERN ESCARPMENT THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE
GFS DEPICTS THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN NC
MNTNS THIS EVENING...SO EVEN LOCATIONS ALONG THE TENN BORDER ARE NOT
OUT OF THE WOODS REGARDING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL
BE MAINTAINED AS IS.

CONCERNING THE TORNADO THREAT...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A MID/UPPER DRY SLOT IS MOVING PERILOUSLY CLOSE TO
OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES. MARGINAL INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED IN THIS AREA
PER THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS...BUT THE AIRMASS HAS BECOME QUITE
UNSTABLE UNDERNEATH THE HEART OF THE DRY SLOT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS
AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. AS SURFACE FLOW VEERS TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION LATER THIS EVENING...THE MID 70S DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS MAY ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES...ENHANCING
THE TORNADO THREAT. THE SEVERE OUTLOOK HAS BEEN CONTINUED.

AS FAR AS WIND...PLAN NO CHANGES TO CURRENT NPW PRODUCTS. EXPECT
ACTUAL SPEEDS AND GUSTS TO VERIFY CONSIDERABLY BELOW WARNING/
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD CONSPIRE TO PRODUCE LOTS OF
DOWNED TREES AND LINES...ESPECIALLY IN THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND
THE MOUNTAINS.

POPS WILL LINGER INTO THE DAY TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES...BUT PRECIP SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
IN THE WAKE OF JEANNE REMNANTS...GFS SHOWS POOR CONTINUITY FROM RUN
TO RUN WITH RESPECT TO SHORT WAVE DROPPING THRU GREAT LAKES AND INTO
OH VALLEY. PREVIOUS RUN HAD CLOSED LOW OVER OH VALLEY AT 12Z
WED...WHILE 12Z RUN HAS SHEARING VORT LOBE. AT ANY RATE...APPEARS
THAT SOME ENERGY SHOULD PASS BY TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
THAT SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDINESS...AT LEAST OVER NORTHERN
ZONES. SKY FORECAST WILL BE ADJUSTED UPWARD ACCORDINGLY. WITH THIS
ENERGY REMAINING NORTH...THIS SUGGESTS RAISING TEMP FORECASTS A FEW
DEGREES IN THE WED NITE/THU PERIOD AS WELL. PLAN TO KEEP THE FRI
THRU SUN PERIOD DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY TO THE NORTH. THINK
ANY RETURN FLOW ON SUNDAY SEEN ON 00Z RUN WITH LIGHT PRECIP
DEVELOPING LATE DAY 7 IS PREMATURE.

AVIATION...
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MODERATE TO OCNL HEAVY
RAIN ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. PREDOMINATE IFR CEILINGS WITH MVFR...
LOWERING TO IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP AS WELL WITH KAVL WINDS SLOWER TO INCREASE
DUE TO N-S BASIN/RUNWAY ORIENTATION AND STRONG E FLOW ACROSS THE
FRENCH BROAD VALLEY. THUNDERSTORM THREAT GREATEST SE OF LINE FROM
KAND-KCLT AND HAVE INCLUDED CB CLDS MOST OF NIGHT FOR ALL SITES
ALONG AND SE OF I-85 CORRIDOR.
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029 THROUGH
TUESDAY.   ...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ZONES GAZ010-017 THROUGH TUESDAY.
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES GAZ018-026-028-029 THROUGH TUESDAY.
NC...FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES NCZ033>035-037-038-048>059-062>072-
     082 THROUGH TUESDAY.
  ...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ZONES NCZ033-048>053-058-059-
     062>065 THROUGH TUESDAY.
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES NCZ034-035-037-038-054>057-
     066>072-082 THROUGH TUESDAY.
SC...FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES SCZ001>014-019 THROUGH TUESDAY.
  ...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ZONES SCZ001>003 THROUGH TUESDAY.
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES SCZ004>014-019 THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM (UPDATE)...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
626 AM EDT MON SEP 27 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-281024-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
626 AM EDT MON SEP 27 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WILL AFFECT ALL OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES A POSSIBILITY FOR
MUCH OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND LOCATIONS IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND
SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85 AS THE REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE MOVE NORTHWARD. THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. A HIGH WIND
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A WIND ADVISORY POSTED FOR NON-MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD. SEE THE LATEST PRODUCTS FROM OUR
OFFICE FOR DETAILS SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA. THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED UNDER THE PRODUCT INVENTORY LIST HEADER CAEFFAGSP...WITH THE
HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY UNDER THE PRODUCT INVENTORY LIST
HEADER CAENPWGSP. DETAILS ON THE SEVERE WEATHER ASPECTS AS JEANNE IS
CONTAINED IN THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM OUR
OFFICE...UNDER PRODUCT INVENTORY LIST HEADER CAESPSGSP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...WHICH ARE THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE WEATHER TIMES FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1053 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0842 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG ASHEVILLE               35.57N 82.55W
09/27/2004                   BUNCOMBE           NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREES DOWN ON EAST SIDE OF ASHEVILLE.

0855 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG RUTHERFORDTON           35.36N 81.96W
09/27/2004                   RUTHERFORD         NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN ACROSS COUNTY.

&&

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1100 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     FLASH FLOOD      REIDVILLE               34.86N 82.11W
09/27/2004                   SPARTANBURG        SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BRIDGE OUT ON APPLE VALLEY ROAD IN BERRY SHOALS AREA.

1050 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SPARTANBURG             34.94N 81.93W
09/27/2004                   SPARTANBURG        SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOODING ALONG HIGHWAY 101 AND KIST ROAD. FLOODING ALSO
            ON S. BLACKSTOCK RD. AND REIDVILLE RD.

&&

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1101 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2004

...CORRECTED TIME OF FIRST REPORT...

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 PM     FLASH FLOOD      REIDVILLE               34.86N 82.11W
09/27/2004                   SPARTANBURG        SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BRIDGE OUT ON APPLE VALLEY ROAD IN BERRY SHOALS AREA.

1050 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SPARTANBURG             34.94N 81.93W
09/27/2004                   SPARTANBURG        SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOODING ALONG HIGHWAY 101 AND KIST ROAD. FLOODING ALSO
            ON S. BLACKSTOCK RD. AND REIDVILLE RD.

&&

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1105 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1053 PM     FLASH FLOOD      GREENVILLE              34.84N 82.37W
09/27/2004                   GREENVILLE         SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            MANY ROADS FLOODED.

1050 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SE FOUNTAIN INN       34.67N 82.18W
09/27/2004                   LAURENS            SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOODING ALONG DOGWOOD HILL RD REQUIRING EVACUATIONS.

&&

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1107 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG FRANKLIN                35.18N 83.38W
09/27/2004                   MACON              NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            FEW TREES DOWN ACROSS ROADS IN VARIOUS SPOTS ACROSS
            COUNTY.

&&

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1131 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0718 PM     FLASH FLOOD      GREENWOOD               34.19N 82.15W
09/27/2004                   GREENWOOD          SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            SEVERAL REPORTS OF ROADS FLOODED...INCLUDING THE
            BYPASS...AND OTHER ROADS AROUND THE CITY.

0715 PM     FLASH FLOOD      HONEA PATH              34.45N 82.39W
09/27/2004                   ANDERSON           SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            APARTMENTS FLOODED DUE TO STOPPED UP STORM DRAIN. SEVERAL
            ROADS FLOODED.

0715 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ANDERSON                34.52N 82.65W
09/27/2004                   ANDERSON           SC   AIRPLANE PILOT

            SEVERAL LOCATIONS ALONG HIGHWAY 81 SOUTH
            FLOODED...INCLUDING AREA NEAR CRESCENT HIGH SCHOOL. OTHER
            FLOODING REPORTED ALONG TRUE TEMPER ROAD...AND CALHOUN
            STREET AT CLEMSON BOULEVARD.

0730 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ABBEVILLE               34.18N 82.38W
09/27/2004                   ABBEVILLE          SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            FLOODING REPORTED ALONG HIGHWAY 72 EAST TOWARD CALHOUN
            FALLS.

&&

MOORE