Flash Flood Warning 58, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WGUS72 KGSP 080212
FFSGSP
SCC001-007-045-047-059-083-080300-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1012 PM EDT TUE SEP 7 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 1100 PM EDT FOR
GREENVILLE...GREENWOOD...ABBEVILLE...LAURENS...ANDERSON AND
SPARTANBURG COUNTIES...

AT 953 PM EDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED MODERATE TO VERY 
HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. RADAR ESTIMATES AND 
RAIN GAUGE REPORTS INDICATE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS 
THE AREA TODAY. LOCAL OFFICIALS INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE FLOODING 
THIS EVENING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE WESTERN UPSTATE...PARTICULARLY IN 
ANDERSON COUNTY WHERE SEVERAL CREEKS HAVE FLOODED ROADWAYS IN AREAS 
BETWEEN ANDERSON AND BELTON... INCLUDING BROADWAY CREEK. HOWEVER... 
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED TO THE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG 
AREA...WHERE RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE 
LATE THIS EVENING. 

THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLOODING ALONG 
ADDITIONAL CREEKS AND STREAMS...INCLUDING INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED 
TO THE REEDY RIVER AND BRUSHY CREEK IN GREENVILLE COUNTIES...AND 
TRIBUTARIES OF THE TYGER AND PACOLET RIVERS IN SPARTANBURG COUNTY. 
URBAN FLOODING WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN GREENVILLE AND SPARTANBURG 
COUNTIES

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE 
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE 
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS 
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY.
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3459 8287 3483 8246 3506 8256 3511 8267
      3518 8188 3485 8176 3460 8185 3453 8165
      3445 8170 3430 8189 3420 8195 3414 8191
      3396 8203 3401 8223 3397 8230 3406 8233
      3408 8249 3402 8260 3444 8285 3448 8297

$$

LANE/RWH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
648 PM EDT TUE SEP 7 2004

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
WILL UPDATE ZONE FORECAST TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 811.
THIS WATCH IS FOR THE SAME AREA AND EXTENDS THE VALID TIME UNTIL 1
AM EDT.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT TUE SEP 7 2004

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

RAIN AND WIND IS THE ORDER OF THE DAY. SO FAR IFLOWS IS SHOWING
WIDESPREAD 2 TO 5 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CWFA. WE RECENTLY
HAD A SPOTTER REPORT OF OVER 5 INCHES IN WALHALLA IN OCONEE COUNTY.
HOWEVER...THE AMOUNTS ARE RATHER VARIABLE...AND THERE ARE A FEW
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE MISSED THE STRONGER RAIN BANDS AND HAVE SEEN
ONLY AROUND AN INCH...THOUGH THEY ARE THE EXCEPTION. REPORTS OF
WIDESPREAD FLOODING ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE. THE SCARY THING
ABOUT THIS IS THAT THE TRUE WARM CORE CONVECTION...TO THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF FRANCES WHERE CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEGUN TO COOL...
IS STILL SEVERAL HOURS AWAY. CURRENT PRESSURE TRENDS REVEAL THAT
THE CENTER IS MOVING NNE WHICH WILL TAKE IT SLOWLY ACROSS THE
MTNS THROUGH WED. THE FFC SOUNDING THIS MORNING HAD A PWAT OF 2.42
INCHES...THE HIGHEST VALUE THAT I EVER RECALL SEEING AND I THINK IT
WAS A GOOD SOUNDING. ALSO...WINDS IN OUR VAD ARE ACTUALLY INCREASING
ATTM. WINDS ARE NOW 50 KTS ON THE VAD FROM 3 THROUGH 7KFT MSL...A
GOOD 10 KNOT INCREASE IN THE LLVL VALUES FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY.
LIFTING 2 INCH+ PW MOISTURE UP THE EAST SLOPES WITH 50KTS OF WIND IS
SIMPLY A PHENOMINAL RAINFALL MECHANISM. THIS APPEARS TO BE UNFOLDING
AS PERHAPS THE WORST FLOOD EVENT IN PARTS OF THE CWFA SINCE JERRY...
THOUGH THIS EVENT WILL BE AFFECTING A LARGER AREA. PLAN TO REALLY HIT
UP THE NEXT FFA WITH VERY STRONG WORDING. IT STILL APPEARS THAT
FLOODING WILL BE THE MOST SEVERE IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...BUT
THINGS COULD STILL BE QUITE BAD EVEN INTO THE PIEDMONT. PLAN TO UP
RAINFALL TOTALS TO 5 TO 10 INCHES TOTAL IN THE NC MTNS AND PERHAPS
4 TO 8 INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS.

ITS A GOOD THING THAT WE HAVE HAD LITTLE HEATING TDA. IF WE WERE
JUST A FEW DEG WARMER...I IMAGINE THAT THE WOULD HAVE HAD SEVERAL
MORE TORNADOES THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...NOW THAT LLVL WNDS ARE
INCREASING...BELIEVE THAT THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING.

WL KEEP THE HIGH WIND WARNING UP FOR THE NC AND GA MTNS ALL NIGHT.
CONSIDERING HOW STRONG THE WINDS ARE JUST OFF THE DECK EVEN EAST OF
THE MTNS I/M GETTING A LITTLE WORRIED. EVEN IN THE MTNS...DON/T
THINK WE WL SEE WINDS THAT WOULD MERIT A HIGH WIND WARNING ON THEIR
OWN. HOWEVER...CALLS TO THE COUNTY ARE REVEALING AN INCREASING
NUMBER OF DOWNED TREES...AND THIS WILL CERTAINLY BECOME WORSE THIS
EVENING WITH A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE PUBLIC.

FRANCES WILL FINALLY EXIT TO THE NE WEDNESDAY EVENING. COLD FRONT
WL STALL OVER THE REGION ON THU...AND WITH RESIDUAL TROPICAL
MOISTURE...DRYING ALOFT AND SFC CONVERGENCE...MAY SEE SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE FORM OF PULSE SEVERE AND HAIL.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ALONG EAST COAST TO KEEP SOUTHEAST FAIRLY
DRY IN WESTERN PART OF THE CAROLINAS WITH MOST PRECIP DVLPG
ALONG COAST.  THE TRACK ON IVAN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN BY THE
WEEKEND.  GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A GENERAL RIGHT BIAS SO ANY TRACK
IS SUSPECT.  LATEST NHC TRACK KEEPS TRACK TO THE LEFT OF MODELS.
SO UNTIL IVAN GETS CLOSER IM GOING KEEP IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

AVIATION...
ALL TERMINALS CURRENTLY AFFECTED BY THE REMAINS OF FRANCES SPREADING
THROUGH AND SEE NO REASON FOR THIS TO NOT CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. GFS GUIDANCE AGREES WITH PERSISTENCE AND HOLDING
CIGS AND VSBY IN THE LOW MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES.

WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST 14Z-18Z ON WEDNESDAY AS THE CIRCULATION CENTER PASSES.
WIND SHOULD LESSEN AFTER THE CENTER PASSES ACROSS WITH CIGS AND VSBY
GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO IMPROVE MIDDAY.
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029 THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY.
  ...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ZONES GAZ010-017 THROUGH TONIGHT.
  ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES GAZ018-026-028-029 THROUGH TONIGHT.
NC...FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES NCZ033>035-037-038-048>059-062>072-
     082 THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
  ...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ZONES NCZ033-048>053-058-059-
     062>065 THROUGH TONIGHT.
  ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES NCZ034-054-055-066-067 THROUGH
     TONIGHT.
SC...FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES SCZ001>014-019 THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
  ...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ZONES SCZ001>003 THROUGH TONIGHT.
  ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES SCZ001>008-010>014-019 THROUGH
     TONIGHT.
&&

SHORT TERM (UPDATE)...RB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
600 AM EDT TUE SEP 7 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-081000-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
600 AM EDT TUE SEP 7 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

THE REMNANTS OF FRANCES WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
TODAY...AND WILL PUSH A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH FLOODING A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY ACROSS A LARGE AREA LATER TODAY. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...SEE THE FLOOD WATCH ISSUED AT 441 AM. WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS MORNING AS WELL...WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...SEE THE URGENT WEATHER MESSAGE ISSUED AT 437 AM. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH WIND DAMAGE
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THE PRIMARY THREAT...MAINLY ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...SEE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED AT 542 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN WILL EXTEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
EVENTUALLY...FLOODING COULD OCCUR ON MAIN STEM RIVERS. RIVER FLOOD
WARNINGS MIGHT NEED TO BE ISSUED IF RAINFALL AMOUNTS DEVELOP AS
EXPECTED. THE REMNANTS OF FRANCES WILL MOVE AWAY THURSDAY...AFTER
WHICH NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT.

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
130 PM EDT TUE SEP 07 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 PM     FLOOD            8 S CLAYTON             34.76N 83.40W
09/07/2004                   RABUN              GA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            COUNTY REPORTS JOEY BRIDGE ROAD FLOODED OFF OF HIGHWAY
            441.

&&

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
208 PM EDT TUE SEP 07 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 AM     TORNADO          13 SW CHARLOTTE         35.06N 81.00W
09/07/2004                   MECKLENBURG        NC   NWS EMPLOYEE

            NUMEROUS LARGE TREES BLOWN DOWN ALONG THOMAS ROAD.

&&

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
313 PM EDT TUE SEP 07 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG SYLVA                   35.37N 83.22W
09/07/2004                   JACKSON            NC   AIRPLANE PILOT

            COUNTY REPORTS NUMEROUS TREES DOWN AROUND THE COUNTY.

0200 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG FRANKLIN                35.18N 83.38W
09/07/2004                   MACON              NC   AIRPLANE PILOT

            COUNTY REPORTS TREES DOWN THROUGHOUT THE COUNTY SINCE
            THIS MORNING.

0200 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG BAKERSVILLE             36.01N 82.16W
09/07/2004                   MITCHELL           NC   AIRPLANE PILOT

            COUNTY REPORTS SEVERAL TREES DOWN AROUND THE
            COUNTY...MAINLY IN LITTLE SWITZERLAND AND BULADEEN.

0200 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG HENDERSONVILLE          35.32N 82.46W
09/07/2004                   HENDERSON          NC   AIRPLANE PILOT

            COUNTY REPORTS TREES DOWN AROUND THE COUNTY ALL DAY.

0250 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG SALUDA                  35.24N 82.35W
09/07/2004                   POLK               NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            COUNTY REPORTS SEVERAL SMALL TREES BLOWN DOWN.

0255 PM     FLOOD            5 N BREVARD             35.31N 82.73W
09/07/2004                   TRANSYLVANIA       NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            COUNTY REPORTS SEVERAL STREAMS FLOODING...ESPECIALLY NEAR
            CASCADE LAKE ROAD...AND DAVIDSON RIVER ROAD IN PISGAH
            FOREST.

&&

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
511 PM EDT TUE SEP 07 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0407 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG TOCCOA                  34.58N 83.32W
09/07/2004                   STEPHENS           GA   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED SEVERAL TREES DOWN AND POWER LINES DOWN
            AROUND THE TOWN OF TOCCOA. 6 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN.

&&

SBK