Alert archive / North Carolina / Flash Flood Warnings in 2004

Flash Flood Warning 51, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

August 31, 2004McDowell County, North Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this flash flood warning at Aug 31, 2004, 8:27 PM EDT for McDowell County, North Carolina. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 31, 2004, 8:27 PM EDT (00:27 UTC)
Expired
Aug 31, 2004, 11:15 PM EDT
In force
3 hr
Issued by
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County McDowell County, NC

The radar

The Greer radar (KGSP), 103 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:29 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 00:00Z, 0.5 hours before the alert went out and 197 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 00:00Z on 2004-09-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 492 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 00:00Z on 2004-09-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 23 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
492 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-6 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1198 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
14 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
23 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
31 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS52 KGSP 010026
FFWGSP
NCC111-010315-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
827 PM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  NORTHERN MCDOWELL COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 1115 PM EDT

* AT 814 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  FLASH FLOODING FROM A THUNDERSTORM NEAR WOODLAWN...OR ABOUT 8 MILES
  NORTHWEST OF MARION. THE STORM PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING WAS        
  NEARLY STATIONARY.

* THE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE 
  AREA FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO.  RADAR AND SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATE   
  AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN SINCE AROUND 5 PM.    
  THE ARMSTRONG CREEK AND ITS SMALL FEEDER CREEKS WILL HAVE THE MAIN 
  FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS
AND STREAMS...ROADS AND ROADSIDE CULVERTS. THE HEAVY RAINS COULD ALSO
TRIGGER ROCK AND MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODS AND FLASH FLOODS. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT
QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY
IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

LAT...LON 3590 8199 3581 8213 3571 8222 3565 8215
      3582 8189

$$

JONES
2 follow-up statements
000 
WGUS72 KGSP 010127
FFSGSP
NCC111-010315-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
927 PM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 1115 PM EDT FOR NORTHERN 
MCDOWELL COUNTY...

AT 914 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR SHOWED THAT RAINFALL 
HAD DIMINISHED QUICKLY ACROSS NORTHERN MCDOWELL COUNTY.  JUST A 
SMALL AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WAS LEFT.

HOWEVER...3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN FELL BETWEEN ABOUT 5 PM AND 8 
PM...AND FLASH FLOODING LIKELY HAS OCCURRED ON SOME OF THE SMALL 
STREAMS WHICH ARE TRIBUTARIES OF ARMSTRONG CREEK.  SOME FLOODING 
LIKELY WAS STILL IN PROGRESS.  THE MCDOWELL EMERGENCY OPERATIONS 
CENTER HAD NOT RECEIVED ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING AS OF 850 PM.  IF 
THE HEAVY RAIN DOES NOT REDEVELOP...AND NO REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING 
ARE RECEIVED...THE WARNING MAY BE CANCELED EARLY.

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE 
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS 
FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT ONLY TAKES A FEW INCHES OF 
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

LAT...LON 3590 8199 3581 8213 3571 8222 3565 8215
      3582 8189

$$

JONES
000 
WGUS72 KGSP 010222
FFSGSP
NCC111-010315-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1023 PM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL MCDOWELL COUNTY IS
CANCELED...

THE HEAVY RAIN DIMINISHED AROUND 930 PM...AND THERE HAVE NO REPORTS 
OF FLASH FLOODING.  HOWEVER...IT IS LIKELY SOME OF THE SMALL STREAMS 
IN THE ARMSTRONG CREEK BASIN FLOODED...SO PEOPLE DRIVING THROUGH 
THOSE AREAS TONIGHT SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS.  WATCH FOR DOWNED 
TREES...FLOODED LOW AREAS...AND WASHED OUT BRIDGES.

LAT...LON 3590 8199 3581 8213 3571 8222 3565 8215
      3582 8189

$$
JONES

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Aug 31, 3:26 PM EDT, 5 hours 1 minute earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 31, 3:26 PM EDT, 5 hours 1 minute before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
326 PM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
OLD COLD FRONT SAUNTERING ACROSS FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON.
DAYTIME HEATING AND STILL-ABUNDANT MOISTURE RESULTING IN SCATTERED
CONVECTION. GREATEST CONCENTRATION THUS FAR HAS BEEN ACROSS EASTERN
ZONES..AND THAT IS WHERE WE WILL ADVERTISE THE HIGHEST POPS THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH ATMOSPHERE NOW MUCH MORE STABLE THERE DUE TO RAIN
COOLING. STILL A WEAK VORT AXIS OVER THE REGION ALSO. WE WILL TRY FOR
A MIDNIGHT CUTOFF AGAIN TONITE...BUT AS WE SAW LAST NITE...IT IS
OFTEN NOT A GOOD IDEA TO END CONVECTION EARLY ACROSS OUR CWFA WHEN
SURFACE IS MOIST AND THERE IS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.

MODELS BACKING OFF EACH RUN NOW ON ADVECTION OF SUPER-DRY AIR INTO
THE REGION AND ARE ALSO TRENDING SLOWER ON BUILDING THE SURFACE
RIDGE INTO THE AREA. THEY DO EVENTUALLY SAG THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND BUILD AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH
INTO THE AREA FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT PERHAPS NOT ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA. APPEARS THE BEST DAY FOR NO CONVECTION IN OUR NORTH AND
NORTHWEST ZONES MAY BE THURSDAY...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK
UPGLIDE INTO THE MOUNTAINS EVEN THEN...BUT FOR NOW WE WILL ADVERTISE
A DRY THURSDAY UP NORTH BORDERING THE BLACKSBURG AND RALEIGH FORECAST
OFFICES.

SCATTERED CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET FRIDAY WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING FROM SOUTH AND EAST...WITH STRONGER UPGLIDE AND INFLOW
INTO THE REGION OF ATLANTIC ORIGIN.

TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDED PROGRESSIVELY LOWER EACH DAY PER GUIDANCE
AND WEDGE-TYPE SIGNATURE.

 &&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
FRI/SAT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER NEW ENGLAND...SUPPORTING
CHANCE POPS...GREATEST IN S NEAR BOUNDARY AND W WITH UPSLOPE...AND
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. TRACK OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL
HAVE IMPACT ON FORECAST FOR SUN/MON. FORECAST TRENDS TOWARD
CLIMATOLOGY...WITH DIURNAL POPS FAVORING MOUNTAINS...AND
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO NEAR NORMAL...THEN HAS POPS THAT CLIMB IN E
PORTION OF AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY RISING THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE UP
INTO THE LOW PART OF THE VFR CATEGORY BY 20-22Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITH MOISTURE POOLED
ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINING IN THE AREA. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WELL INTO THE
EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR MORE THAN VCTS. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...BUT STRATUS NOT AS LIKELY. EXPECT FOG TO BURN
OFF AROUND 14Z.
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SAB
LONG TERM/AVIATION...PM
Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 31, 5:24 AM EDT, 15 hours 3 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
524 AM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-010921-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
524 AM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN
THE PIEDMONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 FROM OLD FORT TO MOCKSVILLE. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. HURRICANE FRANCES WILL APPROACH THE EAST COAST BY THE
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

07

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in North Carolina, 2004Every flash flood warning in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.