Alert archive / North Carolina / Flash Flood Warnings in 2004

Flash Flood Warning 50, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

August 17, 2004Buncombe County, North Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this flash flood warning at Aug 17, 2004, 10:36 PM EDT for Buncombe County, North Carolina. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 17, 2004, 10:36 PM EDT (02:36 UTC)
Expired
Aug 18, 2004, 1:30 AM EDT
In force
3 hr
Issued by
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Buncombe County, NC

The radar

The Greer radar (KGSP), 80 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 00:00Z, 2.6 hours before the alert went out and 228 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 00:00Z on 2004-08-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 862 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 00:00Z on 2004-08-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 94 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
862 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-16 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
910 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
39 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
94 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
127 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.4
Supercell composite
3.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS52 KGSP 180240
FFWGSP
NCC021-180530-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1036 PM EDT TUE AUG 17 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  CENTRAL AND EASTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 130 AM EDT

* AT 1030 PM EDT...WEATHER RADAR SHOWED SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
  THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTY...BETWEEN SWANNANOA
  AND BLACK MOUNTAIN. RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL OF OVER 2 INCHES 
  HAD FALLEN SINCE MID EVENING...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
  SIGNIFICANT RISES ON STREAMS...CREEKS AND RIVERS. THE 
  STORMS HAD BEEN SHOWING TRENDS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN
  EDGE OF THE CLUSTER OF STORMS. SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD 
  AFFECT ASHEVILLE AGAIN...AFTER HEAVY RAIN CAUSED SOME 
  URBAN FLOODING EARLIER TUESDAY EVENING. HEAVY RAIN AND SOME
  FLOODING COULD ALSO AFFECT MONTREAT.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE 
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS 
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY. 
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND. EVEN MODERN SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES CANNOT BE 
SAFELY DRIVEN THROUGH FLOOD WATERS.

TO REPORT FLOODING... HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG.

LAT...LON 3559 8252 3555 8252 3550 8233 3547 8224
      3554 8221 3557 8228 3559 8229 3561 8227
      3562 8228 3570 8230 3573 8233 3562 8251

$$
BURRUS
2 follow-up statements
000 
WGUS72 KGSP 180344
FFSGSP
NCC021-180530-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1144 PM EDT TUE AUG 17 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 130 AM EDT FOR CENTRAL  
AND EASTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTY...

AT 1140 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTY AROUND BLACK 
MOUNTAIN AND SWANNANOA. RADAR AND SURFACE GAGES INDICATE THAT 
BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE EASTERN PART
OF BUNCOMBE COUNTY THIS EVENING. RADAR TRENDS HAVE INDICATED A 
WEAKENING TREND OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND A GENERAL EASTWARD 
SHIFT INTO MCDOWELL COUNTY IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
HOURS.

NO FLOODING HAS YET BEEN REPORTED FROM LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS OR 
TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME 
STREAMS OR CREEKS MAY COME OUT OF THEIR BANKS...ESPECIALLY THE 
BEETREE AND GLADE CREEKS. AN AUTOMATED RIVER GAGE ON THE SWANNANOA
RIVER NEAR BILTMORE INDICATED THE RIVER STAGE HAD RISEN TO NEARLY 
TWO AND A HALF FEET...WELL BELOW THE ESTABLISHED FLOOD STAGE.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS ONGOING 
EVENT. TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY 
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN 
GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG.

LAT...LON 3559 8252 3555 8252 3550 8233 3547 8224
      3554 8221 3557 8228 3559 8229 3561 8227
      3562 8228 3570 8230 3573 8233 3562 8251

$$

BURRUS
000 
WGUS72 KGSP 180530
FFSGSP
NCC021-180600-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
130 AM EDT WED AUG 18 2004

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTY 
EXPIRED AT 130 AM EDT...

HEAVY RAINFALL HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AND REDEVELOPMENT...AT 
LEAST IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...IS NOT ANTICIPATED. 

NO FLOODING REPORTS WERE RECEIVED FROM THE VICINITY OF BLACK 
MOUNTAIN OR SWANNANOA...ALTHOUGH RAINFALL WAS CERTAINLY HEAVY ENOUGH 
EARLIER TUESDAY EVENING TO SEND SOME STREAMS AND CREEKS OUT OF THEIR 
BANKS. 


LAT...LON 3559 8252 3555 8252 3550 8233 3547 8224
      3554 8221 3557 8228 3559 8229 3561 8227
      3562 8228 3570 8230 3573 8233 3562 8251

$$

BURRUS

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Aug 17, 10:33 PM EDT, 3 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 17, 10:33 PM EDT, 3 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1033 PM EDT TUE AUG 17 2004

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND AREA SOUNDINGS SUPPORT CONTINUING CONVECTIVE
CHANCES INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS...WITH FALLING HEIGHTS...WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN FASTER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND VERY MOIST
CONDITIONS IN THE SURFACE TO 750H LAYER. WE WILL EXTEND CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 3 AM...AND BUMP THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT...CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...NORTHERN FOOTHILLS AND EXTREME
NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA CHANCES TO 40%...WITH
30S ELSEWHERE.

CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE ABUNDANT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN THE PREDAWN...BUT WE WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG LATE.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 248 PM EDT TUE AUG 17 2004

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE WEAK FEATURES RIPPLING THROUGH BROAD LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION...BUT SHORT RANGE
MODELS IN DECENT ENUF AGREEMENT IN DIMINISHING BETTER OVERALL
FORCING AS THE EVENING WEARS ON...LEAVING JUST SOME SW WAA FLOW
AND TERRAIN AS SOURCES FOR LIFT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MEAN PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE A WHOLE LOT WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH MODEL
TIMEHEIGHTS DO SHOW SOME MEAN DRYING...A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LESS FAVORABLE UPPER JET POSITIONING
..SO WENT AHEAD AND BACKED OFF FROM THE GOING CHC DIURNAL POPS.

STILL ON TRACK FOR RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STARTING
WED NITE AND HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THURSDAY. SHORT
RANGE MDLS ALSO CONTINUING TO HINT AT WEAK ELONGATED VORT MOVING
UP BACK SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE WITH NOW EVEN SOME INCREASE IN BETTER
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE TO ACCOMPANY. IT IS INCONCLUSIVE WHETHER
OR NOT THESE PARAMETERS WILL BE ENUF TO REINTRODUCE OF CHC
POPS...BUT I DOUBT IT...ESPECIALLY WITH MOS POPS ACRS THE BOARD
IN THE TEENS AT ALL SITES. DEEPER AND MORE MOIST SW FLOW ON FRIDAY
WARRANTS A CONTINUATION OF GOING CHC POPS.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO VACILLATE ON THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. GFS IS NOW RUSHING THE
FRONT THROUGH BY 06Z SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY HEIGHT RISES AND DRYING.
AM NOT GOING TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT TIMING CHANGES FOR POPS AND WX
SINCE CONFIDENCE IS SO LOW. WILL RETAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. REGARDLESS OF THE
EXACT FRONTAL TIMING...CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN THICK THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH TEMPS BEING HELD DOWN. POST-FRONTAL RIDGING
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES MID-WEEK. SWLY FLOW
WILL RETURN BY MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT...SO HAVE ADDED CHANCE
POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...
TSRA ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE NEAR THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS CONVECTION TRIGGERS NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS AND THEN IS STEERED EASTWARD INTO THE PIEDMONT. BKN VFR
CIG SHOULD TRANSITION TO MVFR DURING PRECIP THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH MVFR VSBY LIKELY THROUGHOUT BY THE EARLY OVERNIGHT.
SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE IFR CIG AND VSBY AS MID LEVELS DRY SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT...BUT WIDESPREAD IFR IS NOT ANTICIPATED. WINDS WILL COME
UP GRADUALLY OUT OF THE SW WED WITH ANY SLIGHT CONVECTIVE CHANCES
HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTERNOON.
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM (UPDATE)...SAB
Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 17, 5:56 AM EDT, 16 hours 40 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
556 AM EDT TUE AUG 17 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-181000-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
556 AM EDT TUE AUG 17 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY...
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD
PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...
THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MOST DAYS THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

LANE

In the hours before

Local storm report, Aug 17, 9:04 PM EDT, 1 hour 32 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
904 PM EDT TUE AUG 17 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0853 PM     HAIL             ANDERSON                34.52N 82.65W
08/17/2004  0.75 INCH        ANDERSON           SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            MARBLE TO PENNY SIZED HAIL REPORTED BY ANDERSON COUNTY
            PUBLIC SAFETY.

&&

MOORE

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in North Carolina, 2004Every flash flood warning in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.