Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WGUS72 KGSP 221840
FFSGSP
NCC099-221900-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
241 PM EDT SAT MAY 22 2004

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WHICH WAS IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN 
JACKSON COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELED...

THE STORM WHICH CAUSED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THE GORGES STATE PARK 
AREA HAS DISSIPATED.  HOWEVER...PEOPLE SHOULD BE ALERT FOR THE 
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF 
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

$$
JONES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
110 PM EDT SAT MAY 22 2004

.SHORT TERM...
RELATIVELY STRONG RIDGE SET UP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WITH
ZONAL FLOW TO THE NORTH OF CWA.  DURING THE NEXT WEEK WE ARE LOOKING
AT A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING OVER THE RIDGE...PROVIDING A
LITTLE EXTRA FORCING TO THE SUMMERTIME PATTERN.  BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...
THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN A LITTLE AND GET PUSHED TO THE SOUTH.
LOOKING AT SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK
FRONT...BUT MODELS ARE TOO INCONSISTENT TO ADVERTISE AN INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  MAV IS DRY...ETA MOS IS DRIER.  SO WILL KEEP
ISOLATED WORDING APPROPRIATE FORECASTS.

GFS ADVERTISES STRONG SHORT WAVE FOR NEXT SATURDAY THAT MAY DEPRESS
RIDGE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS BY NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS TROUGH LOOKS WAY TO STRONG AND THE TIMING IN SUSPECT...SO
AGAIN WILL STICK WITH ISOLATED WORDING.

TEMPS REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME AS RIDGE DOMINATES WEATHER. GRIDS
CONTAIN ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE FEATURES LIKE CLT URBAN HEAT ISLAND AND
LOCAL MORNING COOLS SPOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GSP  66  89  66  90 /  20  30  20  20
AND  66  89  65  91 /  20  30  20  20
CLT  68  89  66  90 /  20  30  20  20
HKY  66  88  65  88 /  20  30  20  20
AVL  59  84  61  85 /  20  30  20  20
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

DICARLO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
459 AM EDT SAT MAY 22 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-230900-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
502 AM EDT SAT MAY 22 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SCATTERED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

RB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1211 PM EDT SAT MAY 22 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-222000-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
1211 PM EDT SAT MAY 22 2004

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON.

VERY WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING
QUITE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...WHILE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MAGNITUDE OF FORECAST INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREATS. SINCE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO
BE GREATEST IN THE MOUNTAINS...THIS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION
FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...A SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
ANYWHERE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY TODAY...AND THIS WILL
CREATE THE ADDITIONAL THREAT OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR
THE LATEST UPDATES CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
SITUATION.

LANE