Flash Flood Warning 46, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WGUS72 KGSP 291747 CCA
FFSGSP
SCC045-291900-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
129 PM EDT THU JUL 29 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 300 PM EDT FOR GREENVILLE 
COUNTY...

AT 135 PM ...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED THUNDERSTORMS 
PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED IN THE 
TIGERVILLE AND TAYLORS AREAS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WITH EXCESSIVE RAIN 
WERE MOVING NORTHEAST. 

WATER LEVELS ON BRUSHY CREEK ARE RISING RAPIDLY. BRUSHY CREEK IS 
EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE BANKFULL AND WILL LIKELY FLOOD SOME HOMES IN 
THE DEL NORTE SUBDIVISION AND ALONG BOILING SPRINGS ROAD.  

WHILE MOST OF THE RAIN IN THE BEREA AREA AND WESTERN PART OF 
GREENVILLE HAS MOVE OUR OF THE AREA ...FLOODING FROM RUNOFF IS STILL 
OCCURRING. AREAS THAT ARE STILL FLOODING ARE IN THE CHERRYDALE AND 
POINSETT HIGHWAY AREA.  

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

LAT...LON 3481 8239 3480 8226 3491 8224 3518 8223
      3508 8244 3503 8246 3484 8244

$$

PT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
253 AM EDT THU JUL 29 2004

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
WEATHER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WL BE DOMINATED BY THE BERMUDA HIGH AS IT
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE E. A COUPLE TROPICAL SYSTEMS MAY
ALSO AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

A STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG OR JUST E OF THE MTS.
BOTH THE GFS AND ETA WASH OUT THE FRONT AS MOIST S TO SELY FLOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION TDA. THIS WL PUSH BEST LLVL
CONVERGENCE WELL W OF THE REGION...THOUGH THERE WL BE A HEALTHY
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND. ALOFT...WE WL BE ALMOST DIRECTLY
UNDER THE H5 RIDGE AXIS RIGHT THROUGH SAT.

THIS MAKES FOR A DIFFICULT POP FORECAST AS THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE IS
IN DOUBT. THE ETA MOS IS GENERALLY IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE WHILE THE
GFS AND NGM MOS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW LIKELY RANGE. DAY SHIFT
WENT WITH A BLANKET 50 POP FOR TDA AND THE 1ST HALF OF TNGT AND WL
LET THAT STAND. THE ETA HOLDS ON TO THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR LONGER
THAN THE GFS WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR IT/S LOWER POPS. THE GFS HAS A HUGE
AREA OF .25 TO .50 INCH QPF ALONG AND E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS
AFTN AND EVENING...WHICH SEEMS A LITTLE OVERDONE. WENT WITH A MAV/MET
BLEND FOR HIGHS TDA.

ON FRI...IF ANYTHING THERE IS LESS FORCING. WHILE WE WL BE EVEN MORE
FIRMLY IN THE TROPICAL AIR...THE HIGH LAYER RH VALUES SHIFT A LITTLE
TO THE W OF THE CWA...PARTICULARLY ON THE GFS. SO THE 50 POP W...40 E
POP WE HAVE FOR TMRW LOOKS FINE.

ON FRI THE ETA BEGINS TO BRING LOW PRESSURE TOWARD THE SC COAST WITH
THE SFC LOW MAKING LANDFALL ON SAT. THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION...BUT IT DOES HAVE AN INVERTED SFC TROF MOVING
ONTO THE SC COAST AT THE SAME TIME. OBVIOUSLY THIS WILL BARE CLOSE
SCRUTINY. MODELS HINT THAT THIS FEATURE MAY RESULT IN QUITE A BIT OF
RAIN FOR THE LOW COUNTRY AND MIDLANDS...BUT THE FEATURE MAY (PER THE
MODELS MIND YOU) DAMPEN OUT UNDER BEFORE IT GETS HERE.

LITTLE CHANGE SAT OR SUN. BY SUN A TROF OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
BEGINS TO MOVE A LITTLE MORE EASTWARD. THE TROF WL ALSO BE FILLING
AS IT MOVES E AS HGHTS OVER THE WRN US RISE DRAMATICALLY. LOOKS LIKE
THERE MAY BE A PROTRACTED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN SAT-SUN OVER
TN/KY...BUT IN THE WRN CAROLINAS AND NE GA...WE LOOK TO BE TOO FAR
UNDER THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH TO SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION.
&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
GFS DEVELOPS WHAT LOOKS SUSPICIOUSLY LIKE A TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE
GULF THIS WEEKEND AND BRINGS IT ASHORE LATE SUN ALONG THE MS COAST.
WITH STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WRN US AND ALONG THE E COAST...THIS
FEATURE...IF IT DEVELOPS...WOULD PROBABLY MOVE NNE. AT ANY RATE...
THERE WL BE A SOGGY AIRMASS WITH BETTER LLVL CONVERGENCE OVER THE
REGION MON-WED WHICH MEANS MORE WET AND COOL WX.
&&

.AVIATION...
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW BRINGING MORE MOISTURE BACK INTO AREA FROM E...
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO FILL IN OVERNIGHT...WITH FOG DEVELOPING.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED CONVECTION...AND MENTIONED
VCTS AND CB ALL LOCATIONS. BY TONIGHT EXPECT EVEN MORE EXTENSIVE
LOW CLOUD COVER AS SE FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING YET MOISTURE TO AREA.
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...BPM
AVIATION...07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
539 AM EDT THU JUL 29 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-300938-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
539 AM EDT THU JUL 29 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING.
AS THERE IS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...AND ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING COULD DEVELOP. A FEW OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
COULD ALSO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA PROVIDING A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

14

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1126 AM EDT THU JUL 29 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 AM     FLOOD            GREENVILLE              34.84N 82.37W
07/29/2004                   GREENVILLE         SC   NWS EMPLOYEE

            CARS PLOWING THROUGH WATER IN DOWNTOWN GREENVILLE AT
            ACADEMY STREET AND RIVER ROAD...WASHINGTON STREET
            FLOODED...BUNCOMBE AND MCBEE STREETS HAD STANDING WATER
            ABOUT A FOOT DEEP.

0955 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 N GREENVILLE          34.88N 82.37W
07/29/2004                   GREENVILLE         SC   PUBLIC

            WATER UP TO VEHICLE DOORS ON NORTH PLEASANTBURG ST AT
            CHERRYDALE POINT. EVEN EMERGENCY VEHICLES NOT PASSING
            THROUGH.

&&

RBN