Flash Flood Warning 40, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WGUS72 KGSP 252219
FFSGSP
NCC087-252330-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
618 PM EDT SUN JUL 25 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 730 PM EDT FOR HAYWOOD
COUNTY...

LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED SEVERAL AREAS HAVE BEEN 
AFFECTED BY MUD SLIDES AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY THE 
BALSAM GAP AREA. A MUDSLIDE DAMAGED THE SAUNOOK FIRE 
DEPARTMENT...WITH WATER REACHING THREE FEET DEEP. THE VALLEYBROOK 
TRAILER PARK EXPERIENCED SOME FLOODING DUE TO ALLENS CREEK LEAVING 
ITS BANKS. 

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL HAYWOOD COUNTY 
THROUGH 700 PM EDT. CONTINUED RUNOFF AND AN ADDITIONAL TENTH TO 
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN WILL KEEP LEVELS OF AREA STREAMS AND 
CREEKS ELEVATED. ADDITIONAL ROCK AND MUD SLIDES WILL ALSO REMAIN 
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD 
WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY.
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3565 8319 3551 8316 3532 8294 3541 8277
      3568 8297

$$

NED

000 
WGUS72 KGSP 252333
FFSGSP
NCC087-252330-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
729 PM EDT SUN JUL 25 2004

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR HAYWOOD COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 730 PM
EDT...

AT 725 PM EDT...THE HAYWOOD COUNTY DISPATCH REPORT NO ADDITIONAL 
FLOODING. THROUGH 830 PM...ONLY PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO 
AFFECT CENTRAL HAYWOOD COUNTY AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS UNLIKELY. 
HOWEVER...LOW LYING ROADS MAY STILL HAVE WATER AND DEBRIS ON THE 
THEM.

LAT...LON 3565 8319 3551 8316 3532 8294 3541 8277
      3568 8297

$$

NED

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
259 PM EDT SUN JUL 25 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE SURFACE PATTERN THIS AFTN IS DOMINATED BY TROUGHS ALONG THE COAST
AND JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...WHILE RIDGING CONT EAST OF THE
MTN CHAIN WITH A PERSISTENT NE FLOW. KGSP VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS
THREE GATES OF EASTERLY FLOW NEAR THE GROUND...BUT SHORT RANGE MODELS
INDICATE ONLY SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS...BEST COVERAGE THROUGH THE TONIGHT PERIOD
SHOULD COME TOGETHER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH CONVECTION STEERED
TOWARD THE MTN CHAIN FROM ERN TN...AND THEN WEAK UPSLOPE TRIGGERING
ALONG THE ERN ESCARPMENT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GREATEST
NEAR THE TN BORDER THIS EVENING WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITY WILL YIELD
GREATER PRECIP RATES.

FLOW VEERS SRLY TOMORROW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT TOWARD THE OH VALLEY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND
IMPROVING S TO SW UPSLOPE FLOW. THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER JET
STREAK MAY FINALLY START TO LEND SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE TO THE MIX BY
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT A STRONG WEST TO EAST GRADIENT OF POPS IS STILL
EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT CONFINED MAINLY TO THE
MTNS. WILL ADJUST THE ESF TO INCLUDE ONLY THE MTN COUNTIES AND ONE
TIER OF ADJACENT FOOTHILL COUNTIES THROUGH TUESDAY.

FROPA IS TENTATIVELY SLATED FOR TUE NIGHT. THE DEGREE OF DRYING
THROUGH WED IS QUESTIONABLE AS BOUNDARY COULD STALL IN...OR JUST
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
SFC BNDRY IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ACRS THE CAROLINAS ON DAY 4 AND
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR ATLANTIC RIDGING TO BEGIN BUILDING WESTWARD
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST U.S. AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
FOR NEXT WEEKEND...THIS RIDGE WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE
WITH THE CWFA ASSUMING A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME ORIENTATION...
COMING UNDER IT/S WESTWARD EXTENDING NOSE. MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW LOOKS
TO  EVOLVE INTO AN INCREASINGLY DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...WHICH USUALLY RESULTS IN ABOVE NORMAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. MAX TEMPS FOR DAY 4-7 ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
IF NOT JUST A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...
LACK OF OBVIOUS TRIGGERING MECHANISM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
RESULT IN A LIMITING OF ANY THUNDER CHANCES TO JUST KAVL. HAVE
DELAYED ONSET OF NOCTURNAL STRATCU CIGS FOR THE UPSTATE TAFS UNTIL
THE OVERNIGHT WITH ETA MODEL TIMEHEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS DELAYING
NOTABLE MOISTENING WITHIN 1000-850 MB LAYER UNTIL GENERALLY AFTER
06Z. CONSENSUS AMONG 12Z SHORT RANGE MODELS THAT THREAT OF IFR CIGS
BECOMING MORE PROBABLE...SO HAVE ADDED AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LOW CIGS
ADVECTING IN FROM NNE TO AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS KGSP THRU DAYBREAK.
NOMINAL CHANGES TO EARLIER VSBY RESTRICTIONS SINCE CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW FOR ADDITIONAL PCPN AT ANY TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM/AVIATION...CSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
515 AM EDT SUN JUL 25 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-260906-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
515 AM EDT SUN JUL 25 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING...AND SOME
LOCATIONS WILL SEE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN. THE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS MUCH OF THE
NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND WEAK WINDS
ALOFT...THE STORMS WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING. A FEW AREAS WILL LIKELY
SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN...AND SOME ISOLATED FLOODING AND FLASH
FLOODING MAY DEVELOP.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND IN THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO REPORT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND MONITOR STREAM LEVELS.

MCAVOY