Flash Flood Warning 39, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WGUS72 KGSP 250806
FFSGSP
SCC073-251015-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
406 AM EDT SUN JUL 25 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 615 AM EDT FOR OCONEE 
COUNTY...

AT 357 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED NEAR LONG CREEK...AND WAS MOVING VERY LITTLE.

OTHER THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIFNALL WERE LOCATED IN EASTERN AND 
SOUTHERN OCONEE COUNTY.

STREAMS AND CREEKS BETWEEN LONG CREEK AND WALHALLA ARE EXPECTED TO 
RISE OUT OF THEIR BANKS. THE CHAUGA RIVER...CEDAR CREEK AND CANE 
CREEK WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO FLOODING.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

LAT...LON 3475 8332 3478 8332 3482 8326 3482 8327
      3484 8324 3485 8325 3486 8314 3468 8312
      3466 8326 3468 8334 3472 8335

$$
07

000 
WGUS72 KGSP 250906
FFSGSP
SCC073-251015-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
506 AM EDT SUN JUL 25 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 615 AM EDT FOR WEST CENTRAL
OCONEE COUNTY...

AT 506 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN IN WESTERN OCONEE 
COUNTY. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LONG CREEK...OR ABOUT 11 MILES 
SOUTHEAST OF CLAYTON. THE THUNDERSTORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

OTHER THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OCONEE 
COUNTY...AND WERE PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN.

ALTHOUGH RAINFALL HAS DECREASED BETWEEN LONG CREEK AND WALHALLA 
...RUNOFF FROM EARLIER RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE...CAUSING THE CHAUGA 
RIVER...CEDAR CREEK AND CANE CREEK TO RISE ABOVE THEIR BANKS.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

LAT...LON 3475 8332 3478 8332 3482 8326 3482 8327
      3484 8324 3485 8325 3486 8314 3468 8312
      3466 8326 3468 8334 3472 8335

$$

07

000 
WGUS72 KGSP 251012
FFSGSP
SCC073-251015-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
612 AM EDT SUN JUL 25 2004

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR OCONEE COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 615 AM 
EDT...

RADAR INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION RATES HAVE DECREASED 
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE LAST TWO HOURS. RUNOFF FROM EARLIER RAINFALL 
WILL CONTINUE...CAUSING WATER LEVELS TO DROP ONLY SLOWLY IN STREAMS 
AND CREEKS.

LAT...LON 3475 8332 3478 8332 3482 8326 3482 8327
      3484 8324 3485 8325 3486 8314 3468 8312
      3466 8326 3468 8334 3472 8335

$$

07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
927 PM EDT SAT JUL 24 2004

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
AN AREA OF RAIN AND ISO TS ARE CURRENTLY OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND
NORTHERN UPSTATE WITH SCT SH OVER THE MTN PEAKS. SHORT RANGE MODELS
SHOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE SLIDING SW ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE APPALACHIANS TO NRN GA BY SUNRISE. WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT...UPSLOPE FLOW...AND WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD FUEL SCT SH AND TS
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FOOTHILLS. EXPECT CURRENT ACTIVITY
TO REMAIN SCT UNTIL 5Z...WITH A SECONDARY ROUND DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION BY SUNRISE. CURRENT MIN FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND WILL ADJUST
THE TRENDS TO OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WILL
CONSIST OF TWEAKS TO THE WIND AND SKY FIELDS.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT JUL 24 2004

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
REGIONAL DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THAT TSTMS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY
EXPANDING IN CVRG ACRS THE SW NC AND N GA MTNS SINCE ABOUT NOON
THANKS TO LLVL EASTERLY FLOW. EXPECTEDLY WEAK STEERING FLOW HAS
ALREADY RESULTED IN ISOLATED HEAVY PCPN AMOUNTS AND AS THE ETA PROGS
HIGHER PWATS POOLING INTO THE NW UPSTATE/NE GA...THIS THREAT OF
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN INTO THE EVENING. CAP LOOKS TO BE
HOLDING ATTM JUST SE OF CURRENT ACTIVITY...BUT AGAIN...ETA QPF
TRENDS DO BREAK THINGS LOOSE INTO THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH MID-EVENING. PREFER TO HANG ONTO CHC POPS ALL THRU THE NIGHT
GENERALLY CENTERED ON THE EASTERN ESCARPMENT WITH MOISTENING 100-70H
LAYER AND CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW.

THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM...SHORT RANGE MODELS IN
AGREEMENT FOR SUNDAY IN A TEMPORARY RESPITE IN LLVL MOISTURE...BUT
A RETURN TO MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW PROBABLE SUNDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
CHANGE IN OUR LOWER LVL MOIST PROFILE IS PROGGED INTO TUESDAY
WITH UPSLOPE GRADUALLY DEVELOPING INTO A STRONGER WAA PATTERN BEFORE
SOME DRIER AIR GETS WRAPPED EASTWARD TUES NIGHT. BEST MOISTURE AND
LIFT LOOKING TO LINE UP FROM LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY AND EVEN
THOUGH MODEL DISCREPANCIES ABOUND WITH RESPECT TO MAGNITUDE OF QPF...
NEW HPC TOTAL PCPN GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PAINT A WIDESPREAD AND
HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE OH VALLEY LOW PRES SYSTEM TO LIFT
NORTHEAST WED THROUGH THU SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS DEPICTION.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA BEFORE STALLING. THE WESTWARD BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
THEN ALLOW ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO INVADE THE REGION ON THE STRENGTH OF
WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. WILL FEATURE MAINLY DIURNAL LOW
CONVECTIVE CHANCES THU THROUGH SAT WITH ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED ALONG
ERN ESCARPMENT UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY
SLIGHTLY ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AVIATION...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH ESCARPMENT
SHOWERS LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. TSRA DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE MOST LIKELY NEAR THE TERRAIN CHANGE...WITH BEST VICINITY
CHANCES FROM AND TO AVL. OTHERWISE...SCT TO BKN VFR CU FIELD WILL
CONT IN THE GENERAL NE FLOW. INCREASING UPSLOPE COMPONENT OVERNIGHT
WILL ALLOW MORE OF A SOLID DECK TO DEVELOP WITH SOME MVFR CIG
HEIGHTS AND VSBY IN THE MTNS.
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM (UPDATE)...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
548 AM EDT SAT JUL 24 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-250947-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
548 AM EDT SAT JUL 24 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTRNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

07