Flash Flood Warning 36, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WGUS72 KGSP 180349
FFSGSP
NCC119-180600-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1149 PM EDT SAT JUL 17 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 200 AM EDT FOR MECKLENBURG
COUNTY...

AT 1149 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING IN EASTERN 
MECKLENBURG COUNTY. THE THUNDERSTORMS WITH EXCESSIVE RAIN WERE 
MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS HAD MOVED OUT OF WESTERN MECKLENBURG 
COUNTY...RUNOFF FROM EARLIER RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE FOR SOME 
TIME...CAUSING STREAMS AND CREEKS TO CONTINUE RISING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY.
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3530 8095 3513 8086 3518 8058 3548 8081

$$

JAT

000 
WGUS72 KGSP 180450
FFSGSP
NCC119-180600-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1250 AM EDT SUN JUL 18 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 200 AM EDT FOR MECKLENBURG
COUNTY...

AT 1250 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED THAT RAINFALL HAD DIMINISHED OVER 
MECKLENBURG COUNTY. LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED THAT  
SEVERAL ROADS IN CHARLOTTE WERE UNDER WATER. SEVERAL STREAMS AND 
CREEKS WERE CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE AND STILL RISING...INCLUDING LITTLE 
SUGAR CREEK AT ARCHDALE DRIVE AND AT MEDICAL CENTER DRIVE...AS WELL 
AS STEWART CREEK AT WEST MOREHEAD STREET.

RUNOFF FROM EARLIER RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE...CAUSING FURTHER RISES 
IN STREAMS AND CREEKS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY.
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3530 8095 3513 8086 3518 8058 3548 8081

$$

JAT

000 
WGUS72 KGSP 180558
FFSGSP
NCC119-180600-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
158 AM EDT SUN JUL 18 2004

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR MECKLENBURG COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 200
AM EDT...

AT 158 AM EDT...FLOOD WATERS WERE BEGINNING TO RECEDE...AND THERE 
WERE NO ADDITIONAL REPORTS OF FLOODED ROADS...THEREFORE THE FLASH 
FLOOD WARNING FOR MECKLENBURG COUNTY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON 
SCHEDULE AT 200 AM EDT.

LAT...LON 3530 8095 3513 8086 3518 8058 3548 8081

$$

JAT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
942 PM EDT SAT JUL 17 2004

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
WARM/MOIST GULF AIR MASS SPREADING N ACROSS AREA AT THIS TIME.
IMPULSES ROUNDING EASTERN UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING SEVERAL RAOUNDS OF
CONVECTION. WILL UPDATE FOR RECENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS...RAISING
POPS LEE OF MOUNTAINS TO LIKELY AND LOWERING THEM TO CHANCE IN
MOUNTAINS. BAND OF WELL DEVELOPED CONVECTION APPROACHING I-77
CORRIDOR...WITH STRONGEST CELLS ABOUT TO EXIT UNION AND LAURENS COS.
ANOTHER WEAKER LINE APPROACHING GSP FROM W...BUT ENCOUNTERING AIR
THAT WAS WORKED OVER EARLIER. YET MORE CONVECTION IN SW NC MOVING SE.
UPDATED WINDS...TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
HAVE NOT ADJUSTED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AS DEW POINTS SUGGEST FORECAST
MIMIMUMS ON TRACK. CLOUD COVER APPEARS IN ORDER.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 712 PM EDT SAT JUL 17 2004

SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
UPDATING TO RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL MOUNTAINS AND LIKELY LEE PER
RADAR TRENDS. MAIN PROBLEM APPEARS TO SHIFTING FROM SEVERE TO
FLOOD POTENTIAL GIVEN TRAINING OF ECHOES UPSTATE SC AND FAR W NC.

THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT SAT JUL 17 2004

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
UPPER TROF OVER E US CONTINUES TO DIG SW...WITH MAIN AXIS W OF CWA.
COLD ADVECTION INTO TROF WILL KEEP IT MAINLY W OF AREA FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS...AFTER WHICH IT WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE E BUT STILL REMAIN
NEAR THE COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. SFC BOUNDARY LIES JUST TO THE S AND
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY N...EVENTUALLY AFFECTING THE S TO SE PART
OF THE CWA...GENERALLY S OF I-85. ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE
INTO THIS EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE BOUNDARY
IS FCST TO REMAIN ALONG THE SE PERIPHERY OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS
EVENING THEN PUSH SLOWLY SE. DEPENDING ON WHERE IT MIGRATES TO
WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL OCCUR SUN AFTN-
EVE. CURRENT MODELS HAVE FRONT SE OF AREA AND PUSH IT OUT TOWARD THE
COAST SUN NIGHT. MON A LITTLE DRYER AS DEEPER MOISTURE STAYS FURTHER
S AND E SO HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER N MTNS...SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...TUE GETS A SLIGHT CHANCE AFTN-
EARLY EVE ACROSS CWA.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
WILL USE THE 6Z GFS FOR DETAILS IN THE EXTENDED. LIFTING TROF AND
WEAK SFC HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE CWA FOR WED AND THU. LIS REMAIN
MAINLY POSITIVE AND WILL LIMIT POPS TO DIURNAL MTN SH/TS. FRI AND
SAT...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST...I DO EXPECT
THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WEST THROUGH SAT. HOWEVER...FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BRING UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE LOWER APPALACHIAN REGION.
VERY LITTLE FORCING WILL BE NEEDED FOR A LEAST SCT SH/TS AND WILL
USE CHC POPS WITH HIGHER CHCS OVER THE MTNS. WILL CLOSELY FOLLOW HPC
AND MEX ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS AND DWPTS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

AVIATION...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE FA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WILL
FORECAST SH WITH A MENTION OF CB AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER THE EARLY
PERIOD OF THE TAF. ISENTROPIC LIFT...UPSLOPE...AND WEAK INSTABILITY
SHOULD FUEL SH UNTIL 7Z. IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND FOG WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE SUN MORNING DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...WITH THIS PACKAGE WILL REMAIN CONSERVATIVE AND WILL ADOPT
MVFR VIS CONDITIONS BETWEEN 9-12Z...EXCEPT KAND AND KAVL WILL TAKE
VIS DOWN TO IFR. WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD SCATTER OUT CEILINGS
AND SFC FOG/HAZE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM (UPDATE)...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
559 AM EDT SAT JUL 17 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-181000-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
559 AM EDT SAT JUL 17 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL BE
A LIMITING FACTOR TO THE SEVERITY OF THE STORMS...ALTHOUGH SHEAR WILL
BE RELATIVELY STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IF THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
MORE UNSTABLE THAN EXPECTED...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. A SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK MAY BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING
IF NEW DATA SUGGESTS THAT MORE INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

MOORE