Alert archive / North Carolina / Flash Flood Warnings in 2004

Flash Flood Warning 31, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

July 11, 2004Yancey County, North Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this flash flood warning at Jul 11, 2004, 5:47 PM EDT for Yancey County, North Carolina. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 11, 2004, 5:47 PM EDT (21:47 UTC)
Expired: Jul 11, 2004, 8:45 PM EDT
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Yancey County, NC

The radar

The Knoxville radar (KMRX), 108 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:48 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 9.8 hours before the alert went out and 213 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 45 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -187 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1209 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 17 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -18 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 42 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS52 KGSP 112149 CCA
FFWGSP
NCC199-120045-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING...CORRECTED SPELLING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
547 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  YANCEY COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 845 PM EDT

* AT 545 PM EDT...WEATHER RADAR ESTIMATED THAT CENTRAL YANCEY
  COUNTY HAD RECEIVED RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES JUST SOUTH
  OF BURNSVILLE SINCE MID AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE 
  MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH...BUT COULD PRODUCE ENOUGH ADDITIONAL   
  RAIN TO SEND SOME SHALLOW STREAMS AND CREEKS OUT OF THEIR BANKS IN 
  AND JUST OUTSIDE BURNSVILLE. SIGNIFICANT RISES CAN BE EXPECTED 
  ALONG THE CANE RIVER AND JACKS CREEK.

* THROUGH MID EVENING...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
  BUT COULD REDEVELOP OVER LOCATIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN HEAVY    
  RAIN.

TO REPORT FLOODING... HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY 
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN 
GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG.

LAT...LON 3585 8212 3599 8219 3602 8232 3598 8251
      3571 8225

$$

BURRUS

1 follow-up statement

000 
WGUS72 KGSP 112312
FFSGSP
NCC199-120045-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
713 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2004

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR YANCEY COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

RAINFALL HAS ENDED ACROSS THE COUNTY. NO FLOODING WAS REPORTED FROM 
OBSERVERS OR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT. SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A 
THUNDERSTORM COULD AFFECT THE COUNTY AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING.


LAT...LON 3585 8212 3599 8219 3602 8232 3598 8251
      3571 8225

$$

BURRUS

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 11, 2:50 PM EDT, 2 hours 57 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 11, 2:50 PM EDT, 2 hours 57 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
250 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE
SLOPES ATTM. COMBINATION OF 10 KT ELY UPSLOPE FLOW (AS SEEN ON THE
KGSP-88D VAD WIND PROFILER) AND VERY HIGH DWPT AIR (L70S) IS
RESULTING IN THE PCPN. WE REALLY ARE NOT ALL THAT FAVORABLE ALOFT
WITH WEAK ANITCYCLONIC FLOW...BUT LLVL FORCING IS OVERCOMING THAT.
SO FAR PCPN HAS NOT ANCHORED VERY LONG IN ONE PLACE. INSTEAD IT
SEEMS TO MOVE ONTO NEW...UNDISTURBED AIR RATHER THAN STANDING IN
ONE PLACE. THIS PROBABLY HAS SOMETHING TO DO WITH THE WEAK DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...BUT STILL WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FLOODING
PROBLEMS DEVELOP. WE HAVE AN SPS ADDRESSING THIS ISSUE. ALL THE
NUMERICAL MODELS PROG THE LLVL FLOW TO VEER RATHER MARKEDLY EARLY
THIS EVENING...SO I THINK WE WL SEE THE PCPN BEGIN TO MOVE A LITTLE
MORE TO THE EAST AND AFFECT SLOPES WITH A DIFFERENT ASPECT. THEREFORE
WL NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH ATTM.

LATER TNGT BOTH THE ETA AND GFS BRING A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE INTO THE
MTN ZONES. THE MID SHIFT CAUGHT ON TO THIS AND HAVE CONTINUED
CHANCE POPS ALL NGHT IN THE WRN MTNS.

MON AND TUE LOOK QUITE SIMILAR WITH WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE
REGION AS HGHTS BEGIN TO FALL OVER THE ERN CONUS. LAYER RH VALUES
ARE HIGHER ON MON...SO SUSPECT COVERAGE WL BE GREATER. SPC EVEN HAS
US IN A SEE TEXT AREA...SUSPECTING THAT SOME WET MICROBURSTS MIGHT
BE POSSIBLE LATER TMRW. LATE MON NGHT WE ONCE AGAIN SEE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY ENTER THE WRN ZONES..AND HAVE AGAIN KEPT ELEVATED POPS IN THE
WRN ZONES. WITH A DRIER COLUMN ON TUE...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO 30
PERCENT ACROSS THE CWA. SEVERE THREAT MAY BE LITTLE HIGHER WITH
EVEN DRIER AIR ALOFT...THOUGH IT WL BE LOCALIZED WITH LGT SHEAR.

ON WED AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LONG WAVE TROF RAPIDLY BEGINS TO DEEPEN
OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS WL SEND A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION WED NGHT. MODELS SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BROAD H5 PVA AND BETTER SHEAR THAN WE HAVE HAD FOR A WHILE.
THE BEST LLVL CONVERGENCE STAYS WELL E OF THE REGION...BUT CERTAINLY
CANNOT RULE OUT CHANCE POPS ATTM WED AFTN.
&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
WE WL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STRONG LONG WAVE TROF THU-SAT WHICH
WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS AND LOWER DWPTS. AFTER THE RECENT MUGGY
AND HOT WEATHER...IT WL FEEL VERY NICE. SOME TEMPERATURE AND DWPT
RECOVERY ON SUN AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL...BUT WL STILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY.
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BPM
LONG TERM...JAT

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 11, 5:48 AM EDT, 11 hours 59 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
548 AM EDT SUN JUL 11 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-120947-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
548 AM EDT SUN JUL 11 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY ALONG THE
REMNANTS OF A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA. COVERAGE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GREATEST
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS. ALSO...ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY. TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH DAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA. THE USUAL
HAZARDS OF LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

HG

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 11, 1:44 PM EDT, 4 hours 3 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
144 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2004

GAZ010-017-018-NCZ033-034-048>055-058-059-062>067-SCZ001>007-120100-
AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-CALDWELL NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-HABERSHAM GA-HAYWOOD NC-HENDERSON NC-
MACON NC-MADISON NC-MCDOWELL NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-YANCEY NC-
144 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2004

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...

EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL LIFT VERY MOIST AIR ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND INTO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN. A FEW AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN...WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING DEVELOPING. IF
IT APPEARS THAT THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...AND WITH
IT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT....THEN A FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS AS THEY BRING DOWN DRIER AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THERE MAY BE SOME LARGE HAIL...BUT THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH.

AREAS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM WALHALLA TO
GREENVILLE...RUTHERFORDTON...MORGANTON AND LENOIR.

SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO ACTIVATE QUICKLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. DISPATCHERS SHOULD ENSURE COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE AWARE OF THIS INFORMATION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE MEDIA FOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION OR SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

MCAVOY

Local storm report, Jul 11, 3:38 PM EDT, 2 hours 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
338 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE GREER              34.91N 82.19W
07/11/2004                   SPARTANBURG        SC   AMATEUR RADIO

            HAM RADIO OPERATOR REPORTED TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN
            THE ABNER CREEK...LIBERTY HILL ROAD AREA...BETWEEN
            HIGHWAY 14 AND HIGHWAY 101. OPERATOR SAID STRAIGHT LINE
            WIND DAMAGE.

&&

DEO

Local storm report, Jul 11, 3:49 PM EDT, 1 hour 58 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
349 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             3 SW GREENVILLE         34.81N 82.41W
07/11/2004  0.75 INCH        GREENVILLE         SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED PENNY SIZED HAIL ON WHITEHORSE
            ROAD ABOUT 3 MILES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 85.

&&

DEO

Local storm report, Jul 11, 4:10 PM EDT, 1 hour 37 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
410 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NE GREER              34.98N 82.18W
07/11/2004                   SPARTANBURG        SC   NWS EMPLOYEE

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ALONG HAMPTON ROAD BETWEEN GREER AND
            INMAN.

&&

DEO

The office that day

Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 10, 8:17 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	GSP	Davie	3 hr
Jul 10, 8:20 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Alexander	70 min
Jul 10, 10:38 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	GSP	Haywood	3 hr
Jul 11, 6:58 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Mecklenburg	62 min
Jul 11, 7:32 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	GSP	Union	3 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in North Carolina, 2004 Every flash flood warning in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.