Flash Flood Warning 23, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WGUS72 KGSP 272232
FFSGSP
GAC105-280015-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
630 PM EDT SUN JUN 27 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 815 PM EDT FOR ELBERT
COUNTY...

AT 630 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A SERIES OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH ACROSS 
ELBERT COUNTY. RADAR ESTIMATES THAT TWO TO TWO AND A HALF INCHES OF 
RAIN HAVE FALLEN IN THE PAST TWO HOURS...AND AN ADDITIONAL INCH IS 
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE RAIN TAPERS OFF FROM THE WEST.

THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE ELBERTON 
AREA...AS WELL AS RUCKERSVILLE TO FORTSONIA TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA 
BORDER. COUNTY OFFICIALS REPORT DEEP STANDING WATER ON COUNTY 
ROADWAYS.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL 
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS. DO NOT ATTEMPT 
TO CROSS SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT 
OR BY AUTOMOBILE.

LAT...LON 3420 8309 3422 8308 3424 8301 3421 8298
      3422 8294 3425 8290 3429 8278 3418 8275
      3412 8268 3400 8263 3401 8294 3415 8306
      3417 8310

$$
HG

000 
WGUS72 KGSP 272330
FFSGSP
GAC105-280015-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
725 PM EDT SUN JUN 27 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 815 PM EDT FOR ELBERT
COUNTY...

AT 725 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A 
SECOND LARGE AREA OF MODERATE RAINFALL BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO ELBERT 
COUNTY FROM THE WEST. RADAR INDICATES THAT 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN 
HAVE AFFECTED MUCH OF ELBERT COUNTY OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS...AND THIS 
SECOND AREA COULD PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL INCH BY 815 PM.

LOCATIONS IN THIS WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO 
ELBERTON...RUCKERSVILLE...FORTSONIA AND BOWMAN.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS. A FLASH FLOOD 
WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. DO NOT ATTEMPT 
TO DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. TURN AROUND AND FIND ANOTHER 
ROUTE.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG.

LAT...LON 3420 8309 3422 8308 3424 8301 3421 8298
      3422 8294 3425 8290 3429 8278 3418 8275
      3412 8268 3400 8263 3401 8294 3415 8306
      3417 8310

$$
HG

000 
WGUS72 KGSP 280013
FFSGSP
GAC105-280020-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
812 PM EDT SUN JUN 27 2004

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR ELBERT COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 815 PM
EDT...

AT 812 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED PATCHY LIGHT 
RAINFALL ACROSS ELBERT COUNTY. COUNTY OFFICIALS REPORT SOME MINOR 
URBAN FLOODING IN LOW SPOTS AROUND THE CITY OF ELBERTON. WITH ONLY 
LIGHT RAINFALL RATES EXPECTED UNTIL THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF 
AROUND 9 PM...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3420 8309 3422 8308 3424 8301 3421 8298
      3422 8294 3425 8290 3429 8278 3418 8275
      3412 8268 3400 8263 3401 8294 3415 8306
      3417 8310

$$
HG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
328 PM EDT SUN JUN 27 2004

.SHORT TERM...
CURRENT SFC CHART SHOWS FNT ALONG THE SRN BORDER OF THE CWFA. THIS
VERIFIED BY LAPS DATA WHICH SHOW INSTABILITY ALONG THE SRN TIER AND
RADAR WHICH SHOWS STRONG CONVECTION THERE. NRN SAVANNAH RIVER VLY
GETTING UNSTABLE AS WELL AS WARM MOIST AIR BEING PULLED UP INTO THAT
AREA AHEAD MESOSCALE SFC WAVE SHOWN BY LAPS. SAT PIX SHOW SHORT WAVE
MOVING TOWARD THE AREA. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MOVING THIS WAY. THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER INTO THE EVENING SO WILL GO CAT POP EARLY
EVENING WRN SECTIONS DECREASING TO LIKELY AND HIGH CHC NORTH AND
EAST. GIVEN THE LAPS DATA AND LOOK OF TSTMS NEAR ATL...CANNOT RULE
OUT THE THREAT OF SVR THRU EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...CHC IS LOW AND
CONFINED TO SRN SECTION OF CWFA. DO EXPECT AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
THOUGH. FLASH FLOODING A THREAT GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF SHORT
BURSTS OF HIGH QPF. HOWEVER CANNOT PIN DOWN A BEST LOCATION OR TIME
FOR ANY WATCH AREAS. WILL REISSUE SPS FOR THIS AND LET EVENING SHIFT
ISSUE A SHORT TERM/SMALL SCALE FLOOD WATCH IF NEEDED...WHICH IS
USUALLY MORE APPROPRIATE IN THESE SITUATIONS. HAVE GONE LIKELY ALL
AREAS LATE EVENING FOR ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION FROM THIS WAVE.

MDLS GENERALLY AGREE WITH SFC FNT REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE AREA MONDAY WITH A SERIES OF WAVES MOVING ALONG IT. HOWEVER MDLS
SUFFERING FROM USUAL TIMING/QPF DIFFERENCES. GFS ALSO HAVING
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS. THEREFORE HAVE TRIED TO DAMPEN THESE
DIFFERENCES BY GOING WITH CHC POP AFTER MIDNIGHT...LIKELY MTNS/CHC
ELSEWHERE MON MORNING...THEN LIKELY ALL AREAS MONDAY AFT. KEPT CHC
POP MON EVENING...THEN SLIGHT CHC AFT MIDNIGHT.

ETA/GFS BOTH TRY TO WORK A DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE AREA TUE. BOTH
KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA THOUGH
WITH BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS REFLECTED
IN THE MOS POP FIELDS AND I FOLLOWED WITH CHC POP SOUTH/SILENT 20
NORTH IN A DIURNAL PATTERN.

GFS TRIES TO BRING SOME DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA WED WHILE
THE ETA ONLY HAS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL KEEP A DIURNAL SILENT 20
ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.

GUIDANCE TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE XCPT HIGHS SRN TIER MONDAY AND LOWS
NRN TIER TUE NITE. FOLLOWED CLOSELY XCPT WENT TOWARD WARMER TEMPS IN
THE PROBLEM AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THU-SUN...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST THU AND INTO EARLY FRI...WITH WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED TO OUR SOUTH. THESE FACTORS SHOULD RESULT IN AT
BEST ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. HOWEVER...AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST...AND THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES
TO WASH OUT TO OUR SOUTH...MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
CHANCE POPS FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO HANG UP
WEST OF THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THESE SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE WITH CONTINUED HEATING.
HOWEVER...AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST GA/NORTHERN AL WILL
LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS
ACTIVITY...AND HAVE HANDLED THIS WITH TEMPO GROUPS. ISOLATED IFR
CONDITIONS AND THUNDER ARE ALSO EXPECTED...BUT DO NOT EXPECT IT TO
BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. POSITION OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE CRITICAL FOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...
AS INCREASING UPGLIDE SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY. THE BOUNDARY MAY LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH TONIGHT...BUT
STILL EXPECT THE AND-GSP-CLT CORRIDOR TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT
TONIGHT...AND HAVE INCLUDED IFR CEILINGS AT ALL LOCATIONS LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GSP  67  83  67  86 /  60  60  50  30
AND  68  84  68  86 /  60  60  50  30
CLT  67  83  66  85 /  60  60  50  30
HKY  65  80  65  84 /  60  60  40  20
AVL  64  75  63  81 /  60  60  40  20
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

RWH/JDL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
507 AM EDT SUN JUN 27 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-280906-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
507 AM EDT SUN JUN 27 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

SCATTERED TO LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING IF CELLS TRAIN
REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SOME MAY BECOME
SEVERE. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF EACH DAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
350 PM EDT SUN JUN 27 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-280300-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
350 PM EDT SUN JUN 27 2004

...THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN THIS
EVENING...

A STATIONARY FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF GEORGIA AND
EXTENDED ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE...AND AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...WILL MOVE ACROSS PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONT FROM
THE PIEDMONT AREAS AROUND ELBERTON...ABBEVILLE...AND GREENWOOD...AND
WERE LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEAST.  A LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS.

THE ATMOSPHERE WAS MOIST AND UNSTABLE...AND THERE IS A THREAT OF
LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
ALSO...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...MAY
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN PIEDMONT SECTIONS...ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF
INTERSTATE 85.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR SOME AREAS DURING THE
EVENING...IF THE THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING ORGANIZED OR BEGIN TO SLOW
DOWN OR REPEAT ACROSS THE SAME AREAS.  PEOPLE IN RECREATION
AREAS...URBAN AREAS...AND OTHER LOW AREAS SUBJECT TO FLASH FLOODING
SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY ALERT TONIGHT.

JONES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
512 PM EDT SUN JUN 27 2004

GAZ026-028-029-SCZ010>012-019-272304-
ABBEVILLE SC-ANDERSON SC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GREENWOOD SC-HART GA-
LAURENS SC-
512 PM EDT SUN JUN 27 2004

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING MOVING INTO NORTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE LOWER PIEDMONT OF SOUTH CAROLINA...

AT 510 PM...A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING INTO FRANKLIN...HART AND ELBERT COUNTIES OF
NORTHEAST GEORGIA. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE
AND GREENWOOD COUNTIES BY 545 PM. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING
DETECTION SYSTEMS INDICATE THAT THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING VERY HIGH
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING RATES. THE STORMS ARE PRODUCING MORE THAN
100 STRIKES PER FIVE MINUTE PERIOD. THIS AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING MAKES
THESE STORMS EVEN MORE DANGEROUS TO HUMAN LIFE.

IN ADDITION...THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND
POSSIBLY WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. DEEP PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND LOW
SPOTS IS LIKELY. STAY INDOORS UNTIL THUNDER CAN NO
LONGER BE HEARD. BEFORE THE STORM HITS...UNPLUG SENSITIVE ELECTRICAL
APPLIANCES TO MINIMIZE POTENTIAL DAMAGE.

LAMB