Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
951 PM EDT TUE JUN 15 2004

.SHORT TERM...
WL EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM WED MORNING. CURRENTLY THERE
ARE SEVERAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OVER THE CWA. FOR THE MOST PART
CONVECTION HAS BEEN MOVING THIS EVENING...AND WE HAVE RECEIVED NO
REPORTS OF FLOODING SAVE FOR A FEW POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. GROUND TRUTH
SHOWS THAT THE TROPICAL Z/R CURVE IS WORKING RATHER WELL THIS
EVENING...AND CONSIDERING HOW MOIST THE AIRMASS IS...AND THAT WE
SHOULD HAVE SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF WIDESPREAD PCPN...THINK THE BEST
IDEA IS TO RUN THE WATCH THROUGH THE NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL OVER THE NE HALF OF THE
CWA. THIS AREAS HAS NOT BEEN AS WORKED OVER...AND AS A CONVECTIVELY
INDUCED VORT MOVES NORTH...EXPECT COVERAGE TO INCREASE IN THE NE
ZONES...AT LEAST THROUGH ABOUT 2 AM. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES.

MCAVOY
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY...VERY MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA THRU
TONIGHT. LAPS DATA SHOWING INSTABILITY HIGHER THAN FCST DUE TO
BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ALLOWING INSOLATION. WITH THIS AIR MASS AND
WEAK SHORT WAVES STILL TO MOVE THRU WILL KEEP HIGH POPS THRU THE
EVENING CWFA-WIDE. WILL ALSO CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
THINK ANY FLOODING WILL BE ISOLATED...MAINLY WHERE TRAINING CELLS
OCCUR. BUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP ALREADY ACCUMULATED ALONG WITH
NEARLY SATURATED GROUND...CANNOT DROP WATCH WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAIN EXPECTED.

ATMOS DRIES OUT A LITTLE WED AND HEIGHTS RISE AS UPR RIDGING BUILDS
IN. HOWEVER PW STILL ABOVE NORMAL AND MDLS INDICATING UNSTABLE ATMOS
EVEN WITH THESE CHANGES. GIVEN THE PROGGED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE HAVE KEPT LOW LIKELY POP FOR THE AFT/EARLY EVENING.

ATMOS DRIES OUT FURTHER THU WITH LITTLE CHANGE FRI. INSTABILITY AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS EACH AFTERNOON SO BACK TO A MORE
NORMAL LOW CHC DIURNAL PATTERN THESE TWO DAYS.

MAX TEMPS SHOW A STEADY CLIMB THRU THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS RISE...AND
LESS MOISTURE ALLOWS MORE SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS BRIEFLY DIP
THU MORN THEN RISE ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...
SAT-TUE...OPERATIONAL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ADVERTISE A SUPPRESSION OF
THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN
MODERATELY FAST ZONAL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION. DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE ALLOWS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO SAG SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE SATURDAY...BEFORE
RETREATING NORTHWARD LATE IN THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SW
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR OUR
REGION WILL SURROUND HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL SAG OVER THE
WEEKEND...THEN WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL RESURGE INTO THE CWFA EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST
STATES. CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL ADVERTISE
SCATTERED/DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH MONDAY...ALTHOUGH WITH
INCREASING SHEAR...AND SURFACE FRONT IN THE VICINITY...THERE WILL BE
SOME POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GSP  70  86  69  90 /  70  60  40  30
AND  71  87  69  91 /  70  60  40  30
CLT  70  86  69  90 /  80  60  40  30
HKY  69  85  69  89 /  80  60  40  30
AVL  67  82  66  86 /  70  60  40  30
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 6 AM WED FOR GAZ010-017-018.
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 6 AM WED FOR MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
SC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 6 AM WED FOR SCZ001>007.
&&

RWH/JDL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
600 AM EDT TUE JUN 15 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-161000-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
600 AM EDT TUE JUN 15 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AND
THIS EVENING...SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN. THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS
STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE HEAVY RAIN. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR TODAY FOR THE AREA ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
TOCCOA GEORGIA TO GREENVILLE AND SPARTANBURG SOUTH CAROLINA TO LENOIR
NORTH CAROLINA. FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE THE FFAGSP ISSUED AT 512
AM. OTHER LOCATIONS...ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...SHOULD ALSO SEE HEAVY
RAIN...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IS A BIT LESS CERTAIN.
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN ON MONDAY...SUCH AS THE AREA FROM
GASTONIA TO CHARLOTTE AND CONCORD...WILL BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE
TODAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 536 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...WILL DEVELOP AGAIN WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED...MAINLY FOR RAINFALL AND FLOODING
REPORTS TODAY.

MOORE