Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
530 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2004

.SHORT TERM...
UPDATING FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL MOST OF THE CWFA E
OF THE MTNS SAVE FOR THE FAR SRN TIER AND THE FAR NRN TIER THIS
EVENING. A COUPLE EAST TO WEST ORIENTED BANDS OF SHRA/TSRA HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE UPSTATE AND ARE SLOWLY PUSHING N INTO THE SRN NC
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. ALSO...IT IS STILL QUITE UNSTABLE ACROSS THE
SRN PART OF THE UPSTATE...WITH MORE PCPN UPSTREAM IN CENTRAL GA. WL
ALSO INCLUDE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN ALL ZONES UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. BUT FLOW AROUND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE AND
JUST AHEAD OF LOWER MS VALLEY TROUGH ARE PROVIDING AN AVENUE FOR
DEEP MOISTURE TO CONTINUE FEEDING NORTHWARD FROM GULF COAST REGION
INTO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE SOUTHEAST
PROVIDING A MOISTURE FEED FROM THE ATLANTIC. PERSISTENT RIDGE WILL
NOT ALLOW SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF MIDWEST TROUGH AND SURFACE DURING
EARLY AND MID WEEK... SO WEAK UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES AND
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE MAIN TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION. BEST SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY TO OUR SOUTHWEST NEAR GULF COAST
SYSTEM.

SMALL LINES AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED
PAST HOUR OR TWO.  A STEADY DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTH IS PREVENTING
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS... SO FAR. PLAN TO CONTINUE CATEGORICAL
AND LIKELY POPS WESTERN ZONES AND CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST INTO THE
EVENING.  POPS LATER TONIGHT WILL DECREASE TO CHANCE EVERYWHERE.
POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE TO LIKELY IN THE WEST AND
CHANCE IN THE EAST.  AS RIDGE AXIS BECOMES ELONGATED IN MORE
EAST/WEST DIRECTION DURING WEDNESDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY AND TRANSPORT OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM GULF WILL BECOME LESS
IMPRESSIVE.  CHANCE POPS WILL BE INCLUDED FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH ZONAL FLOW DURING THE END OF THE
WEEK. TYPICAL SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
SUNDAY A WELL DEFINED IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE COLD FRONT ACROSS AREA
ENHANCING CONVECTION.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON POSITION...GFS
MORE AGRESSIVE THAN OTHER LONG TERM MODELS...KEEPING WEEKEND TSTMS
IN CHANCE CATEGORY UNTIL WE SEE CONSISTENT RUNS.  FOLLOWING FROPA
SUNDAY TEMPS DROP SOME BUT AGAIN WILL WAIT FOR CONSISTENT RUNS
BEFORE DROPPING TEMPS TO GFS FCTS.
&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION ALREADY STARTING WITH INCREASE IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY. GOOD TROPICAL MOISTURE AND WINDS NORMAL TO
TERRAIN SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AND
MOUNTAINS.  WITH MORE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FOG AND LOW STRATUS IN FCST FOR TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GSP  68  82  68  87 /  60  60  50  40
AND  68  81  68  88 /  60  60  40  40
CLT  68  81  69  87 /  50  50  50  40
HKY  67  81  67  87 /  50  60  50  40
AVL  64  78  64  84 /  60  70  50  40
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

LGL/VAD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
600 AM EDT MON JUN 14 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-151000-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
600 AM EDT MON JUN 14 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD POSSIBLY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING
CONCERNS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. A FLOOD
WATCH MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE THE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPSGSP) ISSUED AT 447 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...MAINLY
FOR REPORTING RAINFALL.

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
340 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-150200-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
340 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2004

...THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS EVENING...

THE WIND FLOW AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL FEED VERY
MOIST AIR INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION AND PIEDMONT OF THE
CAROLINAS AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE EVENING.

AFTERNOON HEATING PROMOTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL LINES AND
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN COULD PRODUCE HIGH WATER LEVELS IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MOST OF
THE SHOWERS WERE MOVING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE MEDIA FOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION.

LGL