Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1055 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 2004

.UPDATE...
OBVIOUSLY THE FOCUS IS ON THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEE LATEST SPC SWODY1 OUTLOOK WHICH HAS SW MI
IN A MODERATE RISK. THE SHORTWAVE WHICH PRODUCED WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY WILL
CONTINUE LIFTING NE AND SWING THROUGH SW MI BETWEEN 20Z AND 03Z.
ALSO A 100+ KT JET CORE AT 250 MB LIFTING NE FROM WISCONSIN WILL
GIVE THE REGION RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION DIVERGENCE. THE MAIN THING TO
WATCH IS DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WHICH DEVELOPS. MODELS ARE
FORECASTING 3000 K/JG WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY MAKE THINGS VOLATILE
GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. WIND SPEEDS AT 500 MB ARE PROGGED TO
STRENGTHEN TO 50-55 KTS BY 21Z...WHILE 850 MB FLOW INCREASES TO
30-35 KNOTS. SOME DRY AIR IS ALSO NOTED IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE
FCST SOUNDINGS.

&&

.GRR...NONE.

&&

MEADE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED TYPOS IN OUTLOOK PERIOD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
925 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 2004

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-140947-
ALLEGAN-BARRY-CALHOUN-CLARE-CLINTON-EATON-GRATIOT-INGHAM-IONIA-
ISABELLA-JACKSON-KALAMAZOO-KENT-LAKE-MASON-MECOSTA-MONTCALM-MUSKEGON-
NEWAYGO-OCEANA-OSCEOLA-OTTAWA-VAN BUREN-
925 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS UPGRADED SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN TO A
MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...AS WELL AS
TORNADOES. THE BEST TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM 2 PM
THROUGH 10 PM...AND THE PRIMARY STORM MOTION WILL BE EAST AT 30 MPH.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS
THAT DO FORM.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECASTED TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PREDICTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...TRIGGERING THE
STORMS.

IF STORMS REPEAT OVER THE SAME AREA...FLOODING COULD BECOME A
PROBLEM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 96
AND ALSO FOR TUESDAY ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.
THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING WINDS ALOFT...COUPLED WITH A VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG A FRONT SITUATED OVER THE REGION...
WILL TRIGGER THE STORMS. WE WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS THE AREA IS RELATIVELY WET FROM RECENT RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY AND ALSO TUESDAY.

MJS MEADE

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-140000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
107 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2004

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF LOWER MICHIGAN EFFECTIVE UNTIL 800 PM EDT
SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES

IN WEST CENTRAL MICHIGAN
     MASON...LAKE...OCEANA...NEWAYGO AND MUSKEGON

IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN
     OSCEOLA...CLARE...ISABELLA...MECOSTA...MONTCALM AND GRATIOT

IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
     KENT...ALLEGAN...BARRY...KALAMAZOO...VAN BUREN AND OTTAWA

IN SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN
     IONIA...CLINTON...INGHAM...EATON...JACKSON AND CALHOUN

THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE ADJOINING COASTAL WATERS OF AFFECTED
LAKESHORE COUNTIES.

A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. IF YOU
LIVE IN OR NEAR THE WATCH AREA YOU SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE
LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

93