Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1125 AM EDT WED JUN 9 2004

.UPDATE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE SAGINAW BAY...WSW TO
NEAR MUSKEGON AND MILWAUKEE...AND IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH. A GOOD
DEAL OF SFC HEATING HAS BEEN OCCURRING THIS MORNING SOUTH OF THE
FRONT... AND EXTREME INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED WITH CAPES OF
3500-4000 J/KG. CELLS COMING EAST FROM SRN LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE
TAPPING INTO THIS INSTABILITY...SO THESE COULD REALLY TAKE OFF
QUICK. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING NE
FROM SE IOWA/WRN IL... SO SRN LWR MI WILL BE IN AREA OF DECENT PVA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND FIELDS ALOFT ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE (ONLY 30 KTS AT 500 MB) AND FREEZING LEVELS ARE QUITE
HIGH (13,500 FT)... BUT STILL CANT RULE OUT A FEW SVR CELLS GIVEN
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY THAT IS IN PLACE. OBVIOUSLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ALSO REMAINS A CONCERN WITH PWATS OVER 1.5 INCHES.

HAVE CONTINUED THE FLOOD WARNING FOR MASON COUNTY DESPITE FACT THAT
HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED. CALLS TO THE COUNTY INDICATE THAT FLOODING IS
STILL OCCURRING WITH MANY ROADS UNDER WATER (SEE LATEST FLWGRR).
FORTUNATELY IT LOOKS LIKE ANY HEAVY RAIN THAT DEVELOPS THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SRN CWFA CLOSER TO THE SFC FNT.

&&

.GRR...NONE

&&

MEADE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1158 AM EDT WED JUN 9 2004

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-101000-
ALLEGAN-BARRY-CALHOUN-CLARE-CLINTON-EATON-GRATIOT-INGHAM-IONIA-
ISABELLA-JACKSON-KALAMAZOO-KENT-LAKE-MASON-MECOSTA-MONTCALM-MUSKEGON-
NEWAYGO-OCEANA-OSCEOLA-OTTAWA-VAN BUREN-
1158 AM EDT WED JUN 9 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS
MOST OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. HAIL OF UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER
AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT MOVING
SLOWLY SOUTH FROM CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WILL INTERACT WITH AN
EXTREMELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE EAST
AT 25 TO 30 MPH.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
FLOODING CONTINUES IN MASON COUNTY WHERE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN FELL
LAST NIGHT. SIMILAR LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 96 CLOSE TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST RIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE...WITH FLOODING A CONTINUE
THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

MEADE

MIZ045-046-051-052-058-059-065>067-073-074-092200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1239 PM EDT WED JUN 9 2004

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF LOWER MICHIGAN EFFECTIVE
UNTIL 600 PM EDT WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN
     ISABELLA...MECOSTA...MONTCALM AND GRATIOT

IN SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN
     IONIA...CLINTON...INGHAM...EATON...JACKSON AND CALHOUN

IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
     BARRY

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA.
REMEMBER...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 58
MPH AND/OR HAIL THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR GREATER. IF
YOU LIVE IN OR NEAR THE WATCH AREA YOU SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE
LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

MEADE