Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1026 PM EDT SAT MAY 22 2004

.UPDATE...
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL IOWA EAST TO NORTHERN
INDIANA. LATEST RUC SHOWS THIS FRONT MOVING NORTH OVERNIGHT.
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
AND IS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE. WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS
AS IS ALONG WITH THE CURRENT HEADLINES. HEAVY RAIN IS AGAIN POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AS MULTIPLE MCS/S TO THE WEST MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. SEVERE
WX WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA AS HELICITY INCREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND LIS REMAIN BELOW ZERO. WILL TWEAK TEMPS TO REFELCT
CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.GRR...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTH HALF
TONIGHT (ROUGHLY NORTH OF I96). FLOOD WARNING FOR THE COUNTIES OF
MUSKEGON...OTTAWA...KENT...IONIA...CLINTON...ALLEGAN...BARRY...EATON.
..INGHAM...VAN BUREN...KALAMAZOO...CALHOUN...AND JACKSON UNTIL 8 AM
SUNDAY.

&&

93

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
619 AM EDT SAT MAY 22 2004

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-231000-
ALLEGAN-BARRY-CALHOUN-CLARE-CLINTON-EATON-GRATIOT-INGHAM-IONIA-
ISABELLA-JACKSON-KALAMAZOO-KENT-LAKE-MASON-MECOSTA-MONTCALM-MUSKEGON-
NEWAYGO-OCEANA-OSCEOLA-OTTAWA-VAN BUREN-
619 AM EDT SAT MAY 22 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
GREATEST FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO MID EVENING. HAIL TO 1 INCH
AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 65 MPH ARE THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD. AS
ALWAYS...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
ARE ALSO EXPECTED. STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AROUND 35 MPH.

BESIDES THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...FLOODING IS ALSO AN ISSUE.
AFTER NEARLY A WEEK OF OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL...THE GROUND IS
SATURATED. MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN ARE NEAR
BANKFULL. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL ONLY ADD TO THE
FLOODING PROBLEM.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO TRACK EAST ALONG THE FRONT FROM
IOWA INTO MICHIGAN. THIS WILL BRING MORE HEAVY RAIN TO AREAS THAT
HAVE HAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FOR OVER A WEEK. EXPECT PROBLEMS
TRAVELING DUE TO ROAD FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

WITH THE FRONT AROUND LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH SUNDAY...EXPECT PERIODS
OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. COOL UNSTABLE AIR WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS HEAVY
AS WHAT IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
...THEN AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WDM MJK