Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
100 PM EDT FRI MAY 21 2004

.UPDATE...
SEVERE WEATHER AND URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOOD EVENT ONGOING. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL ALL ZONES AND TWEAKED MAX TEMPS IN THE
AFTERNOON UPDATE. WILL PROBABLY NEED A FLOOD WATCH FOR ENTIRE CWA
WITH THE AFTERNOON ZONES.

ZONE UPDATE OUT AT 1216 PM.

&&

.GRR...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN
EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM FOR OTTAWA...ALLEGAN...VAN BUREN...KENT...
BARRY...KALAMAZOO...CALHOUN...MONTCALM...IONIA...EATON...JACKSON...
INGHAM...CLINTON...GRATIOT.

URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MUSKEGON...KENT...IONIA...ALLEGAN...BARRY...KALAMAZOO...CALHOUN...
VAN BUREN...OTTAWA...EATON...JACKSON.

&&

OSTUNO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
635 AM EDT FRI MAY 21 2004

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-221015-
ALLEGAN-BARRY-CALHOUN-CLARE-CLINTON-EATON-GRATIOT-INGHAM-IONIA-
ISABELLA-JACKSON-KALAMAZOO-KENT-LAKE-MASON-MECOSTA-MONTCALM-MUSKEGON-
NEWAYGO-OCEANA-OSCEOLA-OTTAWA-VAN BUREN-
635 AM EDT FRI MAY 21 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN.  THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL AROUND 100 AM.
HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER IS THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD ACROSS THE
AREA. WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH IF INTERSTATE 96.
NEAR AND SOUTH IF INTERSTATE 94 AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

ANY OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GIVEN THE 1 TO
3 INCH RAINFALL THAT FELL SOUTH AND EAST OF GRAND RAPIDS LAST
NIGHT...THOSE AREA BETWEEN BATTLE CREEK AND JACKSON...SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96...WOULD HAVE THE GREATEST RISK OF MINOR FLOODING DUE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

OVER THE WEEKEND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE BACK AND
FORTH ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. THAT WILL TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA FROM TIME TO TIME.  THE MOST LIKELY TIMES FOR THESE STORMS ARE
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EACH DAY.  SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING
ARE MORE THAN POSSIBLE NEAR THE HEAVIEST THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND.

THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY
THROUGH THURSDAY THOUGH AS THE FRONT WILL NOT GET FAR FROM MICHIGAN
THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

WDM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
714 AM EDT FRI MAY 21 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0711 AM     HEAVY RAIN       LACEY                   42.49N 85.19W
05/21/2004  2.20 INCH        BARRY              MI   PUBLIC

            SINCE MIDNIGHT

&&

RSUTTLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1208 PM EDT FRI MAY 21 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1206 PM     HAIL             WYOMING                 42.89N 85.70W
05/21/2004  1.00 INCH        KENT               MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

1206 PM     HAIL             WYOMING                 42.89N 85.70W
05/21/2004  0.75 INCH        KENT               MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DLB

MIZ051-052-056>059-064>067-071>074-212100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1210 PM EDT FRI MAY 21 2004

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF LOWER MICHIGAN EFFECTIVE
UNTIL 500 PM EDT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN
     MONTCALM AND GRATIOT

IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
     KENT...ALLEGAN...BARRY...KALAMAZOO...VAN BUREN AND OTTAWA

IN SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN
     IONIA...CLINTON...INGHAM...EATON...JACKSON AND CALHOUN

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA.
REMEMBER...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 58
MPH AND/OR HAIL THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR GREATER. IF
YOU LIVE IN OR NEAR THE WATCH AREA YOU SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE
LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OSTUNO