Severe Thunderstorm Warning 42, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1000 PM EDT MON MAY 17 2004

.UPDATE...
SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO AID IN THE SUPPRESSION OF CONVECTIVE WEATHER
ACROSS SW LWR MI THIS EVENING. A DRY WEDGE STRETCHING FROM
VALPARAISO TO GRAND RAPIDS SOUTHEAST TO ANN ARBOR...WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH 04Z. THEN SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE DRY WEDGE
DISSIPATES AND THE MCS PRESENTLY OVER IOWA PUSHES EAST WE WILL BEGIN
TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP AND BECOME WIDESPREAD.
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THEY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SVR
WX WITH SFC BASED STORMS THROUGH 03Z...THEN EVERYTHING SHOULD BECOME
ELEVATED ALONG THE COLD FRONT. WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING A FEW SFC BASED
STORMS PUSH EAST AND APPROACH LAKE MICHIGAN ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE
POND...AND HAVE SOME INTERACTION WITH THE LOW LVL MARINE LAYER. AS
THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND OUR STORMS PUSH EAST INTO LWR
MI...BECOMING MORE ELEVATED...WE CAN THEN TAKE THE MARINE LAYER
INTERACTION COMPLETELY OUT OF THE EQUATION. SO WILL HOLD BACK ON
SCAT. TSRA THIS EVENING AND WILL MENTION JUST CHC SCAT. TSRA. THINK
THESE WILL HOLD UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN BECOME WIDESPREAD.
HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREAT...AGAIN MAINLY SOUTH
OF I-96.

&&

.GRR...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON TUESDAY
FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA.

&&

BEACHLER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
637 PM EDT MON MAY 17 2004

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-181000-
ALLEGAN-BARRY-CALHOUN-CLARE-CLINTON-EATON-GRATIOT-INGHAM-IONIA-
ISABELLA-JACKSON-KALAMAZOO-KENT-LAKE-MASON-MECOSTA-MONTCALM-MUSKEGON-
NEWAYGO-OCEANA-OSCEOLA-OTTAWA-VAN BUREN-
637 PM EDT MON MAY 17 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN SOUTHWEST TO IOWA
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE STATE TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS
TONIGHT OVER ALL OF SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND HAIL TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS. TONIGHT THE STORM MOTION WILL BE EAST AT AROUND 40
MPH.

SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAIN AND SOME URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD
OCCUR SOUTH OF I96.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

ANY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END TUESDAY MORNING.  ON AND OFF
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.  STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...THEN AGAIN ON
FRIDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...FOR THE
LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. YOU
CAN ALSO OBTAIN THE LATEST FORECAST ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEB SITE HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRR/ (ALL LOWER CASE)

JK MEADE NJJ