Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
400 PM EDT MON MAY 10 2004

.SHORT TERM...
VERY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK...AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT DROPS INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TOMORROW EVENING AND NIGHT. THE FRONT THEN
PRESSES BACK INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. SUFFICE IT TO SAY...CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGE. THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AND
FLOODING WILL BE CONCERNS THIS EVENING. ETA AND GFS SIMILAR THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM.

TONIGHT...GOING LIKELY POPS STILL SEEM TO MAKE SENSE GIVEN A THE
UPSTREAM CONVECTION AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. INSTABILITY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN IS STILL FAIRLY DECENT...WITH
LI/S RANGING FROM -1 ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER...TO -6 ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH TOWARD INDIANA. THREAT FOR SEVERE WILL MAINLY COME IN THE FORM
OF MARGINAL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. ELEVATED CORES WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED THIS EVENING...FOR POTENTIAL HAIL AND HIGH WINDS IN THE FORM
OF WET MICROBURSTS. CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTH.

TUESDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE...AS THE
FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL
MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE. LOWER MICHIGAN IS NOT IN A
SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME AND PRETTY MUCH AGREE. IN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION THOUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW MORE STRONG STORMS. HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WOULD
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREATS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAINLY IN THE EVENING. WILL THEREFORE LEAVE THE CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE ZONAL UPPER FLOW IN PLACE AT PRESENT BECOMES A
RIDGE. WITH RIDGING IN PLACE AND BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE WARM
SECTOR NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION. PER COORDINATION
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL GO DRY. A WARM DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE BOUNDARY CLOSES BACK IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE KEPT IN THE
FORECAST IN THIS TIME FRAME.

FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES AS LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-96 HAVE RECEIVED
ANYWHERE FROM 2-6 INCHES OF RAIN. WILL BE MONITORING RAINFALL THIS
EVENING FOR POTENTIAL WARNINGS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. PWAT/S WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH TO AN
INCH AND A HALF THIS EVENING...SO PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE.

GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE BALLPARK.

.LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.  THE GFS
SHOWS ANOTHER LOW TRACKING NE ALONG THE FRONT INTO SATURDAY.  THIS
COULD PROLONG THE SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE GEM DOES NOT
SHOW THIS LOW.  WILL CARRY THE CHC POPS FOR SATURDAY BUT THE
THINKING NOW IS THESE SHOULD END EARLY IN THE DAY.  HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR.  THE GFS THEN SHOWS A WEAK SHORT WAVE CRUISING INTO THE WESTERN
LAKES AND DIMINISHING.  WILL INCLUDE THE CHC OF SHOWERS OR STORMS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THIS WAVE MOVES IN.

TEMPS ON FRIDAY SHOULD REACH THE 70S...THEN DROP BACK TO THE 60S FOR
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT.

&&

.GRR...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

DUKE JK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1230 PM EDT MON MAY 10 2004

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-111000-
ALLEGAN-BARRY-CALHOUN-CLARE-CLINTON-EATON-GRATIOT-INGHAM-IONIA-
ISABELLA-JACKSON-KALAMAZOO-KENT-LAKE-MASON-MECOSTA-MONTCALM-MUSKEGON-
NEWAYGO-OCEANA-OSCEOLA-OTTAWA-VAN BUREN-
1230 PM EDT MON MAY 10 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT IN THE 300 PM TO MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME. THE MAIN STORM
THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL TO AROUND AN INCH IN DIAMETER AND
HEAVY RAIN. DAMAGING WINDS TO NEAR 60 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE EAST AT 30
MPH.

ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE... AND SINCE MANY AREAS HAVE
ALREADY SEEN OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE FRIDAY... MORE FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE. LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 96 HAVE BEEN HIT HARDEST BY
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH AS MUCH AS 5 INCHES BEING
REPORTED IN SPOTS. FREMONT IN NEWAYGO COUNTY HAS HAD NEARLY 6 INCHES
OF RAIN SINCE FRIDAY. RIVERS...CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE
SLOWLY RISING. ADDITIONAL RIVER...STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT WHERE STRONGER STORMS PERSIST.

THE STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE TRIGGERED BY A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL MOVE EAST FROM WISCONSIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

MEADE DUKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
312 PM EDT MON MAY 10 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W LAKEVIEW            43.45N 85.32W
05/09/2004                   MONTCALM           MI   PUBLIC

            20 TO 30 TREES DAMAGED OR DOWN

0520 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 W WHITE CLOUD         43.55N 85.87W
05/09/2004                   NEWAYGO            MI   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PAW PAW                 42.22N 85.89W
05/09/2004                   VAN BUREN          MI   PUBLIC

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN

0150 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 WNW CHARLOTTE         42.59N 84.92W
05/09/2004                   EATON              MI   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN

&&

IOD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
517 PM EDT MON MAY 10 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     HAIL             KALAMAZOO               42.27N 85.59W
05/10/2004  0.75 INCH        KALAMAZOO          MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MOSTLY 1/2 INCH A FEW WERE 3/4 INCH IN SIZE.

&&

WDM