Alert archive / Michigan / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2004

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 137, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

July 13, 2004Calhoun County, Michigan

NWS Grand Rapids, MI issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 13, 2004, 9:11 PM EDT for Calhoun County, Michigan. It was in force for 49 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 13, 2004, 9:11 PM EDT (01:11 UTC)
Expired: Jul 13, 2004, 10:00 PM EDT
In force: 49 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Rapids, MI
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Calhoun County, MI

The radar

The Grand Rapids radar (KGRR), 79 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 00:00Z, 1.2 hours before the alert went out and 142 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1903 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -12 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1149 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 25 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 15 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 43 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KGRR 140111
SVRGRR
MIC025-140200-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
911 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS
HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CALHOUN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN

* UNTIL 1000 PM EDT

* AT 908 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER BATTLE CREEK...
  AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MARSHALL AROUND 930 PM EDT
  ALBION AROUND 945 PM EDT

LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4237 8526 4217 8526 4214 8474 4238 8476

$$

93 MEADE

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Rapids, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 13, 2:40 PM EDT, 6 hours 31 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 13, 2:40 PM EDT, 6 hours 31 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
240 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2004

.SHORT TERM...
WHATEVER CAP WE HAD IS GONE AND THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES NOW DOWN TO -8 DEG C NEAR THE
LAKESHORE.  SO AN INCREASE IN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  IT SEEMS THAT THE BIGGEST TRIGGER TO
RELEASE THE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  THE SHORT WAVE PULL THROUGH
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AROUND 00Z.  DYNAMICS ARE STRONG...COUPLED
WITH THE INSTABILITY PRESENT...SHOULD RESULT IN A SQUALL LINE.
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT.  STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ALSO SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL.

THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY...SO I HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE
PRECIPITATION FOR WED.  IT STILL LOOKS LIKE COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.  LATEST TRENDS SUPPORT AN
EARLIER ARRIVAL TO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY.  I HAVE
ADDED SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...
WEATHER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL INFLUENCED BY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THAT WILL ALLOW A COUPLE OF
SHORT WAVES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ACROSS THE CWA. THE FIRST
WAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. GFS SHOWS A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE CWA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENING WITH TIME. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF TSRA IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE WE TAP A SOUTH WIND MONDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. GFS SHOWS A PRETTY DYNAMIC SYSTEM AGAIN
WITH STRONG FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AFTER DRY WX ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, WELL KEEP THE MENTION OF TSRA IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

MJS 93

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 13, 5:59 PM EDT, 3 hours 12 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
559 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2004

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-141015-
ALLEGAN-BARRY-CALHOUN-CLARE-CLINTON-EATON-GRATIOT-INGHAM-IONIA-
ISABELLA-JACKSON-KALAMAZOO-KENT-LAKE-MASON-MECOSTA-MONTCALM-MUSKEGON-
NEWAYGO-OCEANA-OSCEOLA-OTTAWA-VAN BUREN-
559 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST INTO A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE.
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FROM EASTERN
WISCONSIN...ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS COULD LEAD TO URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY...SO THIS SHOULD LIMIT HOW MUCH RAIN
FALLS.  FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGEST STORMS.

THE LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AT ABOUT 30 TO 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

MJS

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 13, 4:12 PM EDT, 4 hours 59 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
412 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2004

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-140400-
ALLEGAN-BARRY-CALHOUN-CLARE-CLINTON-EATON-GRATIOT-INGHAM-IONIA-
ISABELLA-JACKSON-KALAMAZOO-KENT-LAKE-MASON-MECOSTA-MONTCALM-MUSKEGON-
NEWAYGO-OCEANA-OSCEOLA-OTTAWA-VAN BUREN-
412 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2004

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF LOWER MICHIGAN EFFECTIVE
UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES

IN WEST CENTRAL MICHIGAN
     MASON...LAKE...OCEANA...NEWAYGO AND MUSKEGON

IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN
     OSCEOLA...CLARE...ISABELLA...MECOSTA...MONTCALM AND GRATIOT

IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
     KENT...ALLEGAN...BARRY...KALAMAZOO...VAN BUREN AND OTTAWA

IN SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN
     IONIA...CLINTON...INGHAM...EATON...JACKSON AND CALHOUN

THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE ADJOINING COASTAL WATERS OF AFFECTED
LAKESHORE COUNTIES.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA.
REMEMBER...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 58
MPH AND/OR HAIL THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR GREATER. IF
YOU LIVE IN OR NEAR THE WATCH AREA YOU SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE
LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

MJS

Local storm report, Jul 13, 4:21 PM EDT, 4 hours 50 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
421 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HAIL             DIGHTON                 44.09N 85.35W
07/13/2004  1.00 INCH        OSCEOLA            MI   BROADCAST MEDIA

            ESTIMATED SIZE LARGER THAN A PENNY BUT SMALLER THAN A
            GOLF BALL

&&

MWH

Local storm report, Jul 13, 8:01 PM EDT, 1 hour 10 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
801 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SW IRONS                44.14N 85.92W
07/13/2004                   LAKE               MI   AMATEUR RADIO

            SEVERAL REPORTS OF TREES AND WIRES DOWN AROUND IRONS AND
            BIG BASS LAKE AREA

0730 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE STAMBAUGH CORNER   43.97N 85.40W
07/13/2004                   OSCEOLA            MI   AMATEUR RADIO

            3 TREES KNOCKED DOWN, THEIR DIAMETERS WERE 6 INCH, 8 INCH
            AND 10 INCH

0740 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SW FREMONT            43.41N 86.02W
07/13/2004                   NEWAYGO            MI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ONE TREE DOWN

&&

MJS

Local storm report, Jul 13, 8:54 PM EDT, 17 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
854 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0838 PM     HAIL             HASTINGS                42.65N 85.29W
07/13/2004  0.75 INCH        BARRY              MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0728 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE LAKEWOOD CLUB      43.36N 86.23W
07/13/2004                   MUSKEGON           MI   AMATEUR RADIO

            8 TREES KNOCKED DOWN

0840 PM     HAIL             1 E LOWELL              42.93N 85.33W
07/13/2004  0.75 INCH        KENT               MI   PUBLIC

&&

MJS

Local storm report, Jul 13, 8:59 PM EDT, 12 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
859 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CEDAR SPRINGS           43.22N 85.55W
07/13/2004                   KENT               MI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES KNOCKED DOWN...ONE ON A HOME

0839 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NE CEDAR SPRINGS      43.23N 85.54W
07/13/2004                   KENT               MI   PUBLIC

            ONE TREE DOWN BLOCKING NORTHLAND DRIVE

&&

MJS

Local storm report, Jul 13, 9:01 PM EDT, 10 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
901 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     HAIL             GREENVILLE              43.18N 85.25W
07/13/2004  0.75 INCH        MONTCALM           MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MJS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Rapids, MI issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 13, 8:03 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Mecosta	42 min
Jul 13, 8:20 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Gratiot, Montcalm	40 min
Jul 13, 8:23 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Kent	37 min
Jul 13, 8:27 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Ottawa	33 min
Jul 13, 8:29 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Barry	46 min
Jul 13, 8:32 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Ottawa	28 min
Jul 13, 8:36 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	GRR		39 min
Jul 13, 8:40 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Isabella	50 min
Jul 13, 8:52 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Isabella	38 min
Jul 13, 8:53 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Ionia	37 min
Jul 13, 8:59 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Montcalm	31 min
Jul 13, 9:08 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Clinton	52 min
Jul 13, 9:29 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Ionia	31 min
Jul 13, 10:01 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Clinton, Eaton	44 min
Jul 13, 10:12 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Ingham	78 min
Jul 13, 10:15 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Ingham	75 min
Jul 13, 10:46 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Eaton	29 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Michigan, 2004 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.