Severe Thunderstorm Warning 122, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
240 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2004

.SHORT TERM...
WHATEVER CAP WE HAD IS GONE AND THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES NOW DOWN TO -8 DEG C NEAR THE
LAKESHORE.  SO AN INCREASE IN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  IT SEEMS THAT THE BIGGEST TRIGGER TO
RELEASE THE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  THE SHORT WAVE PULL THROUGH
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AROUND 00Z.  DYNAMICS ARE STRONG...COUPLED
WITH THE INSTABILITY PRESENT...SHOULD RESULT IN A SQUALL LINE.
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT.  STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ALSO SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL.

THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY...SO I HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE
PRECIPITATION FOR WED.  IT STILL LOOKS LIKE COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.  LATEST TRENDS SUPPORT AN
EARLIER ARRIVAL TO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY.  I HAVE
ADDED SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...
WEATHER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL INFLUENCED BY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THAT WILL ALLOW A COUPLE OF
SHORT WAVES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ACROSS THE CWA. THE FIRST
WAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. GFS SHOWS A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE CWA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENING WITH TIME. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF TSRA IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE WE TAP A SOUTH WIND MONDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. GFS SHOWS A PRETTY DYNAMIC SYSTEM AGAIN
WITH STRONG FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AFTER DRY WX ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, WELL KEEP THE MENTION OF TSRA IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

MJS 93

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
559 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2004

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-141015-
ALLEGAN-BARRY-CALHOUN-CLARE-CLINTON-EATON-GRATIOT-INGHAM-IONIA-
ISABELLA-JACKSON-KALAMAZOO-KENT-LAKE-MASON-MECOSTA-MONTCALM-MUSKEGON-
NEWAYGO-OCEANA-OSCEOLA-OTTAWA-VAN BUREN-
559 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST INTO A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE.
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FROM EASTERN
WISCONSIN...ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS COULD LEAD TO URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY...SO THIS SHOULD LIMIT HOW MUCH RAIN
FALLS.  FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGEST STORMS.

THE LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AT ABOUT 30 TO 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

MJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
412 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2004

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-140400-
ALLEGAN-BARRY-CALHOUN-CLARE-CLINTON-EATON-GRATIOT-INGHAM-IONIA-
ISABELLA-JACKSON-KALAMAZOO-KENT-LAKE-MASON-MECOSTA-MONTCALM-MUSKEGON-
NEWAYGO-OCEANA-OSCEOLA-OTTAWA-VAN BUREN-
412 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2004

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF LOWER MICHIGAN EFFECTIVE
UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES

IN WEST CENTRAL MICHIGAN
     MASON...LAKE...OCEANA...NEWAYGO AND MUSKEGON

IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN
     OSCEOLA...CLARE...ISABELLA...MECOSTA...MONTCALM AND GRATIOT

IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
     KENT...ALLEGAN...BARRY...KALAMAZOO...VAN BUREN AND OTTAWA

IN SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN
     IONIA...CLINTON...INGHAM...EATON...JACKSON AND CALHOUN

THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE ADJOINING COASTAL WATERS OF AFFECTED
LAKESHORE COUNTIES.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA.
REMEMBER...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 58
MPH AND/OR HAIL THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR GREATER. IF
YOU LIVE IN OR NEAR THE WATCH AREA YOU SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE
LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

MJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
421 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HAIL             DIGHTON                 44.09N 85.35W
07/13/2004  1.00 INCH        OSCEOLA            MI   BROADCAST MEDIA

            ESTIMATED SIZE LARGER THAN A PENNY BUT SMALLER THAN A
            GOLF BALL

&&

MWH