Special Marine Warning 21, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
430 AM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004

.SHORT TERM...THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE TO TODAY/S FORECAST IS FIGURING OUT
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. STRONG UPPER SYSTEM WILL COME THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND PROVIDE GOOD UPPER SUPPORT. THE QUESTION
IS HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE WILL HAVE FROM SURFACE HEATING. TWO MAIN
AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS AT 330 AM. ONE WAS IN DULUTH AREA AND ANOTHER
OVER EASTERN IOWA. MODELS HINT THAT IN BETWEEN THERE MAY BE SOME
SUNSHINE AND DOWNWARD MOTION UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. SPC HAS SOUTHEAST CORNER IN
MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND WE AGREE WITH THAT ASSUMING WE
GET SOME SURFACE HEATING TODAY. AFTER THIS SYSTEM GOES THROUGH SOMEWHAT
COOLER AND DRIER AIR RETURNS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL LEAVE THE AREA IN A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TIMING OF WEEK DISTUBANCES DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA WILL BE DIFFICULT AT BEST BASED ON WHICH MODEL
YOU CHOOSE. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW NORMAL
READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ON THURSDAY...DECIDED TO ADD A CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS BOTH THE ETA/NGM
DEPICT SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEREFORE
WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS
DO FORECAST WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...WILL LEAVE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW AS THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY. WILL FOLLOW CLOSE TO MEXT GUIDANCE READINGS FOR
HIGHS...BUT MAY TRIM A FEW DEGREES OFF THE LOWS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTH. NO SIGNIFICANT HEAT IS IN SIGHT FOR THE REGION.

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

RDM
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
445 AM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-140945-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-
LINCOLN-LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-SOUTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-
MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-
WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-MANITOWOC-
445 AM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TODAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL.

THEN A COLD FRONT AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING AN EVEN
BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST CENTRAL
COUNTIES. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND POSSIBLY
TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

RDM
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
239 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     HAIL             2 N APPLETON            44.29N 88.40W
07/13/2004  0.75 INCH        OUTAGAMIE          WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
241 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0234 PM     HAIL             LAKEWOOD                45.29N 88.51W
07/13/2004  1.75 INCH        OCONTO             WI   PUBLIC

&&

DC