Severe Thunderstorm Warning 75, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
355 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004

.SHORT TERM...RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AS OF 3 AM THIS MORNING...WITH
THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAINFALL NOW READY TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BASED ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD...WILL WORD OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ENDING THIS MORNING
AS DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED WELL WEST
AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO UNLESS A THUNDERSTORM POPS UP BEFORE
ZONE ISSUANCE...WILL NOT MENTION IN THE ZONES THIS MORNING.

ETA TIME CROSS SECTION WOULD SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION MAY END AS
DRIZZLE...BUT BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS
MINNESOTA...WILL JUST END PRECIPITATION AND NOT MENTION DRIZZLE. ETA
MODEL IS NOT DEPICTING THE DRY SLOT VERY WELL THAT IS OCCURING ACROSS
WESTERN IOWA AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE SKY HAS CLEARED ACROSS
THIS AREA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.

THE POOR HANDLING OF THE DRY SLOT HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON
AFTERNOON CONVECTION REDEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS I WOULD LIKE...MODELS DEPICTING
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
ETA MODEL DEPICTING CAPES IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE SINCE THE ETA IS HANDLING THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL EARLY
THIS MORNING. WET BULB HEIGHT ARE FAIRLY LOW AND LIFTED INDICES DROP
INTO THE -1 C TO -3 C RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE THE
MENTION  SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. CURRENT
THINKING IS STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH STRONG
WINDS AND HAIL AND THEN TURN INTO A WIND EVENT IF EXPECTED SETUP
OCCURS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PART
OF THE FORECAST IS POTENTIAL FOR PCPN. SAME STORY AS THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...ETA AND CANADIAN KEEP PCPN NORTHWEST OF THE CWA WITH THE NEXT SFC
LOW MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. GFS HAS QPF OVER
NORTHERN WI...BUT AMOUNTS ARE QUITE SMALL. KEPT THE CHC SPRINKLES IN FOR
NORTH-CENTRAL WI SUNDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN DRIFTS
ACROSS WI KEEPING DRY WX IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. RETURN FLOW BEGINS ON TUESDAY AND PCPN MOVES INTO THE CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND THEN OVERSPREADS THE REST OF THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS STRENGTHENS AND SLOWLY APPROACHES WI. PCPN CONTINUES THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

ECKBERG/MG
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1000 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-241700-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-
LINCOLN-LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-SOUTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-
MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-
WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-MANITOWOC-
1000 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL...
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.

STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR MARINERS WITH
SMALL CRAFT THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN AND THE
BAY OF GREEN BAY. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN BEYOND 5 NAUTICAL MILES FROM SHORE. WINDS AND WAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

KIECKBUSCH
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB