Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
400 PM CDT SAT MAY 8 2004

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG TOUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EVENTUALLY SHOULD ERODE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS MOVE OUT...MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN RESPONSE TO WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DROP OFF SHARPLY AS YOU HEAD NORTH OF A
GREEN BAY TO WAUSAU LINE AND WILL MORE THAN LIKELY OCCUR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD NOT DROP OFF TO MUCH TONIGHT AS DEWPOINT HAVE
RISEN INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. BIG MODEL
DIFFERENCES EXIST SUNDAY WITH HOW THE MODELS HANDLE CONVECTION. WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE ETA SOLUTION...BUT WILL KEEP CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE DAY AS WARM FRONT HANGS JUST TO OUR SOUTH. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 6 C/KM AND THERE IS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WHILE DIURNAL HEATING MAY TRIGGER
SCATTERED ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL TAKE A BLEND BETWEEN
THE WARMER FWC GUIDANCE AND THE MET/MAV GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...MAIN CONCERNS ARE
PRECIP CHCS AND TEMPS.

EXPECT A THREAT OF SVR TSTMS SUN NGT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS
THE RGN AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO NC WI LATE SUN NGT...THEN SLOWLY DROP SE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA
ON MON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE RGN MON NGT...INTO TUES FOR A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIP CHCS.

ANOTHER SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE
TUES NGT THROUGH THU NGT TIME PERIOD...WITH A CONTINUED CHC OF
SHRA/TSRA. DRY WX WILL RETURN FRI INTO SAT.

STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD
OF THE FCST.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

ECKBERG/KIECKBUSCH
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1145 AM CDT SAT MAY 8 2004

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-091645-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-
LINCOLN-LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-SOUTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-
MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-
WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-MANITOWOC-
1145 AM CDT SAT MAY 8 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND THEN SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
A WARM FRONT MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY...COMBINED WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT...BUT AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE NEEDED
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

ECKBERG
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB