Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
330 AM CDT MON AUG 9 2004

.SHORT RANGE...SCT BUT DIMINISHING BANDS OF SHRA/TSRA PASSING OVER THE
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS PER RADAR.  MEANWHILE
SURFACE FRONT OVER FAR WRN WI...WILL PUSH THROUGH TODAY AS DEEP UPR TROF
SETTLES OVER THE REGION.  AT 07Z WESTERN WISCONSIN OBSERVING NO PCPN.
WITH COMBO OF SFC FRONT...VORT FIELD SPREADING OVER THE REGION AND TOTAL
TOTALS IN THE UPPER 40S AT LEAST...EXPECT PCPN TO REDEVELOP AFTER A LULL
THIS MORNING.  BEST TSRA COVERAGE LIKELY OVER ERN WI THIS AFTERNOON WITH
FROPA AND POTENTIAL MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.  ISOLD SVR WX THREAT OVER
ERN WI WILL DEPEND ON AMOUNT OF CLRG THIS AM FOR DESTABILIZATION.  WILL
MENTION ISOLD TSRA INTO THE EVENING OVER FAR NE WI WITH LINGERING
INSTABILITY ALOFT.  OTHERWISE EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND IN THE PCPN TNT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING PRIOR TO NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY TO SAG OVER THE STATE
LATER TUESDAY.  WILL LEAVE TSRA OUT FOR NOW...BUT DEPENDING ON ANY
BREAKS IN THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER TUESDAY AND REMAINING SURFACE
MOISTURE...ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE.  SURFACE DPTS PROGGED TO BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 50S TUESDAY.

.LONG RANGE...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND A FEW JET STREAKS
MOVING THROUGH. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WOULD BE UP NORTH. COULD GET
A FEW LOW TOP THUNDERSTORMS WITH GRAUPEL TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE PROBABLY WON/T BE MUCH OF A DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURES WITH
CLOUD COVER AND A WIND. UPPER SUPPORT MOVES EAST THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY AND SOMEWHAT COOL WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

TDH/RDM
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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1145 AM CDT MON AUG 9 2004

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-101100-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-
LINCOLN-LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-SOUTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-
MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-
WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-MANITOWOC-
1145 AM CDT MON AUG 9 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT THROUGH WISCONSIN BY EVENING. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED BEHIND THE FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID LEVEL
LOW. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE STATE INTO A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY BE SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON
TUESDAY.  CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED.  ANY BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER MAY RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE ISOLATED NON
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

MG
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