Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
200 PM CDT SUN AUG 1 2004

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY. FORECAST FOCUS ON SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

MODEL RUNS VERY DIFFERENT THIS RUN AS TIMING AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION
STILL AN ISSUE. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SEEM TO INDICATE THAT CONVECTION
MAY HAVE A HARD TIME DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO THE CWA THIS EVENING AS
INDICATED BY THE ETA MODEL. THE GFS SEEMS A BIT TOO BROAD BRUSHED WITH A
GENERAL AREA OF CONVECTION TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE CURRENT TRENDS SEEM
TO SUPPORT THE ETA MODEL SO WILL GO WITH THE ETA FOR GENERAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TIMING.

THE ETA INDICATES CONVECTION AND AN MCS FORMING ALONG WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN MINNESOTA AND POSSIBLY SPILLING OVER INTO THE WESTERN CWA
LATE TONIGHT. THEREFORE WILL LOWER PRECIPITATION FROM LIKELY TO CHANCY
TO REFLECT THE RECENT TRENDS.  THE ETA THEN BRINGS THE COMPLEX INTO THE
CWA MONDAY MORNING AND LINGERING ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE CONSENSUS OF ALL MODELS FOR PRECIPITATION
THIS PERIOD WILL HANG ONTO THE LIKELY CHANCES AS WE STAY IN THE GENERAL
VICINITY OF THE FRONT THIS PERIOD.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WITH THE ELEVATED MCS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN CWA. TIMING OF
MCS WILL BE CRUCIAL TO SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON IN
THE EASTERN CWA AND IF CONVECTION SLOWS DOWN IT CAN TAP INTO THE 1000-
2000 J/KG CAPE AND -4 LI VALUES. GOOD SHEAR AND THE PROXIMITY TO THE
FRONT COULD MEAN A FEW TORNADOES WITH MOST LIKELY THREAT BEING WIND
DAMAGE GIVEN THE HIGH WET BULB ZERO VALUES OVER 10K FT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER
UPPER MIDWEST AS TROF DEEPENS IN THE EAST.  AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE STATE BY WED.  DRY PERIOD EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  QUESTION OF FORECAST IS TUE/TUE NIGHT.
GFS HAVING PROBLEMS WITH WAVE (POSSIBLE REMNANTS OF CUT OFF CURRENTLY
OFF SFO BAY AREA).  WIND FIELD ON ETA SHOWS BOUNDARY WELL TO THE SOUTH
OF AREA ON TUE.  BELIEVE PCPN PATTERN TOO FAR NORTH ON BOTH ETA AND GFS.
 WILL KEEP CURRENT DRY FORECAST INTACT AFTER MON NIGHT.  AGAIN GFS MORE
AGGRESSIVE OF MED RANGE MODELS BRINGING COOLER AIR SOUTH WITH HIGH.
WILL DROP TEMPS SOME...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT LOWS. THOUGH...STILL EXPECT
HIGHS TO REACH TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS GIVEN SUNSHINE AND DRY
AIRMASS.

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

KURIMSKI/TE
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1215 PM CDT SUN AUG 1 2004

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-021715-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-
LINCOLN-LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-SOUTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-
MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-
WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-MANITOWOC-
1215 PM CDT SUN AUG 1 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE WARM AND VERY HUMID AIR SOUTH OF
THE FRONT WILL BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL
PROVIDE THE FUEL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE DIFFICULTY WILL BE IN
PINPOINTING EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
THE GREATEST.

STORMS COULD DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE AREA STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING TONIGHT. GIVEN THE EXTREME INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...ANY STORMS THAT AFFECT THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME COULD BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR THE STORMS TO DEVELOP INTO AN
ORGANIZED SYSTEM WHICH WOULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND THEN DIMINISH
RAPIDLY MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ENDING THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT THIS AFTERNOON...
TONIGHT...AND/OR MONDAY.

KURIMSKI
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB