Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
400 AM CDT SUN APR 18 2004

.DISCUSSION...FOCUS IS ON SVR POTENTIAL TDA AND TNGT. FRONT LIFTG NWD
DESPITE CONVECTION FIRING N OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. ALL MODELS NOW SHOWED
THE FRONT WORKING INTO NRN WI BY AFTN...AND THAT SEEMED REASONABLE. PREV
FCST RIGHT ON TRACK IN SHIFTING CURRENT MCS NE OF THE AREA AND HAVING A
BREAK IN THE PCPN UNTIL LATE TDA. STILL A RISK OF SVR HAIL IN THE
ELEVATED TSRA N OF THE SFC FRONT. EXPECT GUSTY SSW WINDS IN THE WARM
SECTOR...SO WENT WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AFTN INTO TNGT. WENT ABV
GUID WITH TEMPS. ONLY CONCERN WAS THAT THE WARM SECTOR WAS NOT AS CLEAN
AS THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH MORE CI AND SOME AC EXPECTED. IT WL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE STG SSWLY WINDS CAN KEEP LAKE BREEZE FM
WORKING INLAND. SUSPECT THE FLOW IS A BIT TOO SLY...AND THAT LAKESHORE
AREAS WL EXPERIENCE SOME COOLING.

WITH THE FCST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR...THE MAIN SVR THREAT WL COME LATE
THIS AFTN INTO TNGT AS THE SFC LOW HEADS FOR NW WI. THE COLD FRONT
ITSELF DOES NOT GET INTO THE NW PART OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL ARND
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWED LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
IN THAT AREA...SO EXPECT DEVELOPMENT SOONER DUE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
NR THE WARM FRONT. THINK AREAS FARTHER SE WL NEED TO WAIT FOR THE
FRONT...AND THE LOW-LEVELS WL BE STARTING TO STABILIZE BY THEN.
HOWEVER...ETA CRANKS 850 MB WINDS UP TO 80 KTS DURING THE LATE EVENING.
ALTHOUGH THAT WAS PROBABLY OVERDONE...THE OTHER MODELS STILL HAD WINDS
ARND 60 KTS. WITH SUCH STG WINDS AT LOW-LEVELS...ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES WORK INTO THE AREA COULD EASILY GENERATE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

NOT MUCH OPPORTUNITY TO LOOK AT AND ADJUST THE REST OF THE FCST. NEXT
CHC OF PCPN WL COME TUE NGT/WED AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM HEADS ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES RGN. THAT SYSTEM SHOULD BE WEAKER AND TRACK FARTHER SOUTH...
SO WENT WITH STRATIFORM PCPN.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT
WIZ005-010>013-

WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT
WIZ018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-

&&

SKOWRONSKI
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
600 AM CDT SUN APR 18 2004

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-191100-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-
LINCOLN-LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-SOUTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-
MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-
WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-MANITOWOC-
600 AM CDT SUN APR 18 2004

...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA...AND A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN UNTIL MID-MORNING. THE STORMS WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS WEST OF A
LINE FROM MARSHFIELD...TO WAUSAU...TO CRANDON...AND WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 3
PM AND 9 PM.

THE STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE TOWARD EASTERN WISCONSIN.
HOWEVER...WITH VERY STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...THE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS WELL INTO THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS.

THIS OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED AT NOON. BE SURE TO MONITOR WEATHER
FORECASTS THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

SKOWRONSKI
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
654 AM CDT SUN APR 18 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 AM     HAIL             LAC DU FLAMBEAU         45.96N 89.88W
04/18/2004  1.00 INCH        VILAS              WI   COUNTY OFFICIAL

&&

SAC/JS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
703 AM CDT SUN APR 18 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 AM     HAIL             ARBOR VITAE             45.91N 89.65W
04/18/2004  0.75 INCH        VILAS              WI   COUNTY OFFICIAL

&&

SC/JS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
708 AM CDT SUN APR 18 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 AM     HAIL             SAYNER                  46.00N 89.53W
04/18/2004  1.75 INCH        VILAS              WI   COUNTY OFFICIAL

&&

SC/JS