Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
300 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2004

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.  BROAD UPR UPR WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE FCST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.  SEVERAL S/WS WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES PASSING OVER THE GRTLKS RGN TODAY INTO THURSDAY.   FIRST
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXITING SE WI THIS AFTN.  NEXT STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM MN THIS AFTN AND WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE NRN PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA TNT.  LFQ OF UPR JET INITIATING STRONGER CONVECTION OVER
NC MN BUT SO FAR NO REPORTS OF SVR WEATHER OVER MN.  AT 19Z THIS AFTN...
DPTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.  CONVECTION MAY STAY BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS THIS EVENING DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE OVER THE FCST AREA.
OVER SRN MN SFC CONVERGENCE IS WEAK ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY STILL CONTAIN SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL EARLY EVENING.

ETA AND GFS MODELS DIFFER FOR THURSDAY.  ETA DRIVES THE FRONT WELL SOUTH
ON THURSDAY FOR A DRY DAY...WHILE THE GFS STALLS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER SRN WI AND CONTS A PCPN CHC OVER AT LEAST OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  HOWEVER WITH COLD TROF ALOFT FOR
THURSDAY...INSTAB SHRAS OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE OVER NRN WI IN THE AFTN...
SO WILL CONTINUE CHC OF SHRA.  ANTICIPATE THIS CONVECTION TO BE MAINLY
THUR AFTN...BUT SOME LINGER PCPN MAY BE AROUND IN THE MORNING.
DEPENDING ON INSTAB FROM DAYTIME HEATING...ISOLD TRW POSSIBLE THUR AFTN
AS S/W VORT TRACKS OVER.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WHILE DEEP
UPPER LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL FILL AND LIFT NORTHEAST. THIS
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...
PER COORDINATION WITH MQT WILL ADD SCATTERED FROST OVER THE FAR NORTH
AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. THINK INCREASING CLOUD
COVER SHOULD PREVENT ANY FREEZE OVER THIS REGION. OTHERWISE DID ADD
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES SWINGS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF CANADA ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE
REMAINS QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THERE WERE
SOME ISSUES ABOUT CHANCES FOR RAIN ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WENT WITH A
MAJORITY OF THE OFFICES AND WENT DRY AS THERE WERE SIGNIFICANT TIMING
ISSUES INVOLVED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD APPROACH 80 DEGREES BY NEXT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

ECKBERG
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1145 AM CDT WED JUN 23 2004

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-241100-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-
LINCOLN-LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-SOUTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-
MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-
WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-MANITOWOC-
1145 AM CDT WED JUN 23 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TONIGHT.  A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT OVER THE
STATE.  THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS MORE LIKELY OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  THE MAIN
THREATS INCLUDE UP TO ONE INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BY EARLY EVENING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND LATER EVENING OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

TDH
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB