Severe Thunderstorm Warning 287, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
202 PM MDT SUN AUG 22 2004

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CHANCES OF PRECIP AGAIN TONIGHT
AND EXTENT OF WARMUP THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

AT 20Z BACKEDGE OF MID LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD WITH ASSOCIATED VORT MAX
MOVING EAST. WEST OF THE SHIELD CU ARE POPPING. WILL KEEP ANY POPS
WEST OF THE CLOUD SHIELD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BECOME SEVERE.

TONIGHT/MONDAY...FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT. VORT
MAX VISIBLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST AT 10 KTS
OR SO THE REST OF THE DAY. RUC HANDLING POSITION THE BEST AND WILL
USE IT FOR THE SHORT TERM TONIGHT PERIOD. ANY PRECIP THAT MANAGES TO
DEVELOP WILL LINGER THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO BEFORE DISSIPATING. FOR
MONDAY...MOISTURE/INSTABILITY/MODEST LAPSE RATES AND LIFT ALL POOL
OVER THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH.
GIVEN VARIOUS WEAK DISTURBANCES CAUGHT UP IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
ISOLATED STORMS APPEAR WARRANTED.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA MAKING
A MESS OF THE WIND FIELDS. OUR PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE
AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
MAY HAVE SOME PRECIP OVER THE NORTHWEST WHERE MID/UPPER MOISTURE AND
WIND SHIFT LINE PROVIDING FOCUS BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE ANXIOUTY
DOWN WITH SILENT POPS AS OMEGA FIELDS NEUTRAL OR DOWNWARD. OTHER
CONCERN LATE MONDAY NIGHT IS THE HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
COMING IN FROM THE EAST. FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN 1/3 OF
THE AREA MAINLY OVER GRAHAM AND NORTON COUNTIES. WILL NEED TO WATCH
EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA AGAIN TUESDAY AS CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY AND
LIFT DEVELOP ALONG THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. CIN IS WEAK AND
ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 90S...SIMILAR TO MONDAYS READINGS PER
ETA/GFS CHANGE AT 850MB.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...VORT MAX RACES TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT BUT NOT MUCH EXPECTED. MAY NEED TO WATCH
THIS AS WE APPROACH THIS TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE...WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO PRECIP EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 5F OR SO.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS (THURSDAY-SUNDAY)...FOR THURSDAY CURRENT AND
PREVIOUS 2 RUNS OF THE GFS ALONG WITH DGEX ADVERTISE A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF SUN TO REALIZE 850 TEMPERATURES
SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE 90S. 12Z GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE WHEN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS RUN AND LATEST
DGEX. EITHER WAY...IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER FRIDAY WITH READINGS
ALMOST 15F LOWER AT 850 THAN THURSDAYS NUMBERS. ON SATURDAY...
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL A BIT AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS
SWINGS THROUGH. WILL GO LOW/MID 80S. THEN FOR SUNDAY...MODEST
DIFFERENCES SHOW UP WITH REGARD TO WARMING TREND. LATEST GFS ABOUT
10F WARMER THAN PREVIOUS RUN WHICH KEEPS COOLER AIR OVER THE AREA.
AT POINT WILL BLEND WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AS FURTHER MODEL
RUNS WILL LIKELY WOBBLE A BIT IN THIS REGARD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.

&&

DDT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1016 AM MDT SUN AUG 22 2004

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-231200-
CHEYENNE KS-CHEYENNE CO-DECATUR KS-DUNDY NE-GOVE KS-GRAHAM KS-
GREELEY KS-HITCHCOCK NE-KIT CARSON CO-LOGAN KS-NORTON KS-RAWLINS KS-
RED WILLOW NE-SHERIDAN KS-SHERMAN KS-THOMAS KS-WALLACE KS-WICHITA KS-
YUMA CO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATWOOD...BENKELMAN...BURLINGTON...
CHEYENNE WELLS...COLBY...FLAGLER...GOODLAND...GOVE...HILL CITY...
HOXIE...LEOTI...MCCOOK...NORTON...OAKLEY...OBERLIN...QUINTER...
SHARON SPRINGS...ST. FRANCIS...TRENTON...TRIBUNE...WRAY AND YUMA
1016 AM MDT SUN AUG 22 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A DRY LINE WILL EXTEND FROM TRENTON NEBRASKA TO TRIBUNE KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT EAST OF THIS
FEATURE. THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE. THEREFORE...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 4 PM CDT (3 PM
MDT) IN THAT AREA. ALTHOUGH WIND SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...A FEW STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE DUE TO THE INSTABILITY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS NORTON...GRAHAM...AND GOVE COUNTIES. HAIL AND
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. A FEW STORMS WILL ALSO MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO AND EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS THIS
EVENING...BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON EAST OF A
LINE FROM HOXIE KANSAS TO MCCOOK NEBRASKA. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA.
AT THIS TIME...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME
SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING EAST OF TRENTON
NEBRASKA TO TRIBUNE KANSAS LINE.

MENTZER