Severe Thunderstorm Warning 280, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
233 PM MDT SAT AUG 14 2004

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ARE THE EFFECTS OF THE FRONT
DEPICTED BY MODELS TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.

HAVE GONE CLOSER TO A GFS SOLUTION...BUT COMPROMISES ABOUND.

THE PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE PAST 24 HOURS AND IS EXPECTED
TO CHANGE LITTLE IN DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS WILL
LEAVE THE TRI-STATE REGION OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OPEN TO
THE INFLUENCES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
WESTERN U.S....THE LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SPURTING BITS OF
ENERGY EASTWARD TO TOP THE RIDGE...AND ADDITIONAL ENERGY KEEPING THE
LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY GENERALLY IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
MAY MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING.  SUNDAY EVENING...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAY HELP SPAWN
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL
KANSAS.  THE MODELS DEPICT THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
ON MONDAY...BUT FEEL IT MAY BE A BIT TOO FAST AND HAVE DELAYED IT
UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.  HAVE KEPT TEMPS WARMER ON MONDAY BEFORE
COOLING THEM DOWN A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY. HAVE THEN KEPT
PRECIPITATION MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MONDAY
EVENING.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE
FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS MAINLY BETWEEN 55 AND 60.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.

&&

LOCKHART

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1040 AM MDT SAT AUG 14 2004

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-151200-
CHEYENNE KS-CHEYENNE COUNTY CO-DECATUR KS-DUNDY NE-GOVE KS-GRAHAM KS-
GREELEY KS-HITCHCOCK NE-KIT CARSON COUNTY CO-LOGAN KS-NORTON KS-
RAWLINS KS-RED WILLOW NE-SHERIDAN KS-SHERMAN KS-THOMAS KS-WALLACE KS-
WICHITA KS-YUMA COUNTY CO-
1040 AM MDT SAT AUG 14 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS
OF EASTERN COLORADO AFTER 3 PM MDT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE MOST LIKELY
AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE WEST OF A LINE FROM BENKELMAN TO
GOODLAND TO LEOTI. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS
WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY AS THE WEATHER PATTERN CHANGES VERY
LITTLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WILL BE
OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO WHERE STORMS COME OFF THE FRONT RANGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MWM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
449 PM MDT SAT AUG 14 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0446 PM     HAIL             5 NNW YUMA              40.19N 102.76W
08/14/2004  1.25 INCH        YUMA               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MENTZER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
518 PM MDT SAT AUG 14 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 PM     HAIL             VERNON                  39.93N 102.32W
08/14/2004  1.75 INCH        YUMA               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MINOR FLOODING IN FIELDS.

&&

MENTZER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
529 PM MDT SAT AUG 14 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0528 PM     HAIL             4 SW VERNON             39.89N 102.37W
08/14/2004  1.75 INCH        YUMA               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MENTZER