Severe Thunderstorm Warning 277, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
240 PM MDT TUE AUG 10 2004

.DISCUSSION...ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. FOR TONIGHT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/UPPER
DIVERGENCE COUPLET WILL PRODUCE A GOOD BULLSEYE OF OMEGA MOVES FROM
EASTERN COLORADO ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
EVENING. STORMS WILL FORM ALONG A STALLED FRONT/THETA E RIDGE IN
EASTERN COLORADO. CURRENT CAPE VALUES NEAR THESE BOUNDARIES ARE
AROUND 2400 J/KG. CAPE VALUES IN THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ARE
MEAGER.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH A
FRONT STALLED OUT IN A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION FROM
EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY SERVE AS
THE DIVIDING LINE FOR HIGHER POPS SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND LOWER
NORTH. PLAN TO GO LIKELY IN THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT TAPERING TO LOW
SCATTERED POPS IN THE NORTHEAST. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH
FRIDAY BUT LITTLE OR NO FORCING OR SHORTWAVES INDICATED BY ETA FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. HOWEVER THE ETA IS HINTING AT THE IDEA OF STORMS
DEVELOPING ON MOUNTAINS AND MOVING SOUTHEAST JUST BRUSHING WESTERN
CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO AND GREELEY COUNTY KANSAS. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE SO WILL KEEP CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE THERE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER DO NOT SEE ANY FORCING FOR OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SO WILL REMOVE
POPS/WEATHER FOR 06Z-12Z. A REPEAT OF THIS COULD HAPPEN AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT DYNAMICS APPEAR TO BE FURTHER SOUTH SO WILL
LEAVE OUT POPS FOR NOW. ON FRIDAY BOTH THE GFS/ETA INDICATE ANOTHER
WAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT IT APPEARS TO AFFECT THE NORTHEAST FORECAST
AREA WHERE COOLER MORE STABLE AIR IS BEHIND THE FRONT SO WILL
DISCOUNT ANY WEAK FORCING IT PROVIDES. 850MB TEMPERATURES INDICATE A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND OF A FEW DEGREES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

DAYS 4-7...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY. TIMING OF WEAK
WAVES IN THE FLOW DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT SO WILL LEAVE FORECAST DRY
UNTIL MONDAY. MONDAY/TUESDAY A 700MB TROUGH IS ADVERTISED TO MOVE
INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS. FOR NOW WILL PLAY CONSERVATIVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH LOWS NEAR
NORMAL AROUND 60.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.

&&

FS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1052 AM MDT TUE AUG 10 2004

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-111200-
CHEYENNE KS-CHEYENNE COUNTY CO-DECATUR KS-DUNDY NE-GOVE KS-GRAHAM KS-
GREELEY KS-HITCHCOCK NE-KIT CARSON COUNTY CO-LOGAN KS-NORTON KS-
RAWLINS KS-RED WILLOW NE-SHERIDAN KS-SHERMAN KS-THOMAS KS-WALLACE KS-
WICHITA KS-YUMA COUNTY CO-
1052 AM MDT TUE AUG 10 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED TODAY...

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SOUTH OF A LINE FROM YUMA COLORADO TO GOODLAND AND RUSSELL
SPRINGS IN KANSAS. SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA...THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM BENKELMAN NEBRASKA TO GOVE
KANSAS. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH MOIST AIR...WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 DEGREES...INTO EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN
KANSAS. FULL SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON WILL CREATE A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE MODERATE RISK AREA. WIND SHEAR WILL EQUAL OR EXCEED
THAT OF YESTERDAY EVENING...AGAIN LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 80
MPH...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 2 AND 4 PM MDT ALONG THE PALMER
DIVIDE FROM JUST EAST OF DENVER TO NEAR FLAGLER COLORADO. OTHER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NORTHWARD INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...AND THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...BUT THE MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO IS FOR SEVERE STORMS IN COLORADO TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. ALL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL 2 INCHES OR GREATER IN
DIAMETER...ESPECIALLY IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA. THE HIGHEST THREAT
FOR TORNADOES WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THE EVENT...WHEN STORMS ARE MORE ISOLATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE...AS COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY AFTER 3 PM MDT..ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM YUMA COLORADO TO GOODLAND AND RUSSELL SPRINGS IN
KANSAS.

BURKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
839 PM MDT TUE AUG 10 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0836 PM     HAIL             BREWSTER                39.36N 101.38W
08/10/2004  0.88 INCH        THOMAS             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
852 PM MDT TUE AUG 10 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0851 PM     HAIL             4 W GOODLAND            39.35N 101.78W
08/10/2004  0.88 INCH        SHERMAN            KS   PUBLIC

&&

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
857 PM MDT TUE AUG 10 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     HAIL             2 S GOODLAND            39.32N 101.71W
08/10/2004  0.75 INCH        SHERMAN            KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

0855 PM     HAIL             2 S GOODLAND            39.32N 101.71W
08/10/2004  1.75 INCH        SHERMAN            KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

0855 PM     HAIL             2 S GOODLAND            39.32N 101.71W
08/10/2004  1.75 INCH        SHERMAN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
901 PM MDT TUE AUG 10 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0858 PM     HAIL             3 W GOODLAND            39.35N 101.77W
08/10/2004  1.75 INCH        SHERMAN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JOHNSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
907 PM MDT TUE AUG 10 2004

COZ090>092-110330-
CHEYENNE CO-KIT CARSON-YUMA-
907 PM MDT TUE AUG 10 2004

...TORNADO WATCH #731 HAS EXPIRED FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO...

THE SYSTEM THAT CAUSED THE TORNADO WATCH TO BE ISSUED FOR YUMA...
KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTY IN EASTERN COLORADO HAS WEAKENED AND
MOVED SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA BUT SLOWLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
NONE OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

RJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
930 PM MDT TUE AUG 10 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0922 PM     HAIL             18 SW LEVANT            39.20N 101.43W
08/10/2004  0.88 INCH        SHERMAN            KS   STORM CHASER

&&

JOHNSON