Severe Thunderstorm Warning 214, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
140 PM MDT MON JUL 5 2004

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON THE WIDESPREAD WIND POTENTIAL
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA FOLLOWED BY SOME FLOODING CONCERNS OVER THE
EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA TONIGHT.

TONIGHT/TUESDAY...WILL JACK UP THE POPS WITH CONFIDENCE OF MCS MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HEART OF THE TRI-STATE AREA. FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL ALSO BE IN EFFECT MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA WHERE
RECENT RAINS THE PAST FEW DAYS SUGGEST SOME FLOODING POTENTIAL. AM
ALSO EXPECTING A HIGHTENED THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE GIVEN PARAMETERS
RESEARCHED FROM 3 PREVIOUS WIND/DUSTSTORM EVENTS EARLIER THIS SEASON.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ON TUESDAY LEADING TO COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
ALLOWING RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE AREA. WEAK UPPER
RIDGING KEEPS STORM SYSTEMS TO OUR NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST WITH DRY
WEATHER CONTINUING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...CONTINUED DRY BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH THE
ATTEMPTED APPROACH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS THE FORECAST AREA GETS
CAUGHT BETWEEN UPPER TROUGHING TO OUR NORTHWEST AND UPPER RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED HIGH TO OUR SOUTH.

FRIDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GET CLOSE TO THE AREA AND GIVEN
UPPER PATTERN BECOME STATIONARY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF RAIN BUT EXACT POSITION WOULD DICTATE THE HIGHEST THREAT.
LITTLE CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT AND FOLLOWING LEAD OF SURROUNDING
OFFICES I WILL PULL THE SMALL POPS THAT WERE ADVERTISED. VIGOUROUS
WAVE MOVES OUT FRIDAY NIGHT SUPPORTING CURRENT AND PREVIOUS QPF
FORECAST OF THE GFS WITH AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DEPENDING ON
WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CDT TONIGHT UNTIL 6 AM CDT TUESDAY
MORNING FOR NORTON...GRAHAM...SHERIDAN...DECATUR...AND GOVE
COUNTIES.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.

&&

DDT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1040 AM MDT MON JUL 5 2004

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-061200-
CHEYENNE KS-CHEYENNE COUNTY CO-DECATUR KS-DUNDY NE-GOVE KS-GRAHAM KS-
GREELEY KS-HITCHCOCK NE-KIT CARSON COUNTY CO-LOGAN KS-NORTON KS-
RAWLINS KS-RED WILLOW NE-SHERIDAN KS-SHERMAN KS-THOMAS KS-WALLACE KS-
WICHITA KS-YUMA COUNTY CO-
1040 AM MDT MON JUL 5 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE TRI STATE AREA THIS EVENING...

SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE TRI STATE AREA. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL COMBINE TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND EASTERN COLORADO...MOVING INTO THE TRI STATE
AREA THIS EVENING. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR A RISK OF LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...WIND SHEAR WILL BE
STRONGER TONIGHT THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS AND ALLOW THE THUNDERSTORMS
TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS THEY PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS
WILL BRING A RISK OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW
TORNADOES...TO THE AREA.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS. SATURATED
GROUNDS HAS RESULTED IN THE ISSUANCE OF A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH
FLOODING EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 IN NORTHWEST KANSAS FOR TONIGHT. THE
REMAINDER OF THE TRI STATE AREA COULD ALSO SEE MINOR FLOODING AS
LOCALLY ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN WILL FALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE WEATHER SHOULD BE DRY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILING OVER THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS DISTURBANCES
ALOFT PASS OVER THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON IN EASTERN COLORADO
AND THE ENTIRE TRI STATE AREA TONIGHT.

FS/JDK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
708 PM MDT MON JUL 05 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0702 PM     TSTM WND GST     BREWSTER                39.36N 101.38W
07/05/2004  60 MPH           THOMAS             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
727 PM MDT MON JUL 05 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     TSTM WND GST     COLBY                   39.39N 101.05W
07/05/2004  71 MPH           THOMAS             KS   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

&&

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
732 PM MDT MON JUL 05 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0732 PM     TSTM WND GST     OBERLIN                 39.82N 100.53W
07/05/2004  60 MPH           DECATUR            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
752 PM MDT MON JUL 05 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     HAIL             9 SE SHARON SPRINGS     38.80N 101.63W
07/05/2004  0.75 INCH        WALLACE            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
753 PM MDT MON JUL 05 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0753 PM     TSTM WND GST     OAKLEY                  39.13N 100.85W
07/05/2004  58 MPH           LOGAN              KS   MESONET

&&

JOHNSON

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