Severe Thunderstorm Warning 157, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1230 PM MDT THU JUN 24 2004

.UPDATE...

NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH...JUST BELOW SUSTAINED CRITERIA FOR AN
ADVISORY. SOME BLOWING DUST ACCOMPANYING THE HIGHER WINDS AS WELL
WITH VISIBILITY TO 5 MILES AT THE GOODLAND AIRPORT. HAVE UPDATED
WIND GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. OTHER CHANGE WAS TO ADD ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHERN 2 TIERS OF COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPED QUICKLY OVER MOUNT SUNFLOWER IN THE PAST HOUR...BUT
COLLAPSED WITHIN 20 MINUTES. OTHER STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP AS
THE FRONT MOVES INTO DESTABILIZING AIR MASS WITH STRONG SURFACE
HEATING. A BRIEF SEVERE CELL WITH DIME TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION...BUT THIS THREAT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. /JDK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
235 AM MDT THU JUN 24 2004

POP AND QPF ARE THE PROBLEMS TODAY.

GFS AND ETA NEARLY IDENTICAL AT JET LEVEL UPON 00 UTC
INITIALIZATION...BUT SUBTLE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THERMAL FIELDS.
MODELS ALL APPEAR TO UNDERESTIMATE THE VIGOR OF THE TRAILING WAVES
IN THE DISPLACED HUDSON BAY LOW...AND THIS IMPACTS THE TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL WAVES.

PREFERRED GFS TODAY BASED ON BETTER LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD
INITIALIZED AT THE BASE OF THE WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE.

COLD FRONT LOOKS TO ARRIVE A LITTLE AHEAD OF GFS SCHEDULE AND SHOULD
BE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE CONVECTION IGNITES ON IT THIS
AFTERNOON.  THINK GOODLAND FORECAST AREA BEST SCENARIO FOR PRECIP
IS FOR CONVECTION AND FOLLOWING STRATIFORM AREA TO MOVE IN LATE
TONIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST.  AMOUNT OF PRECIP WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON
JUST HOW MUCH CONVECTION FIRES ON THE FRONT DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS
AREA.

HAVE ASSUMED A SERIES OF CHANNELLED VORTS WILL PASS THROUGH IN
THE MEAN NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...ENOUGH TO KEEP AT LEAST
LIGHT PRECIP THREAT GOING OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BEGINNING
TONIGHT.

AM INCLINED TO RAISE POPS QUITE A BIT WHEN BOTH ETA AND GFS PLACE
ENERGY PASSING THROUGH...BUT WILL WAIT FOR 06 UTC RUNS BEFORE BUYING
COMPLETELY INTO THE 00 UTC MAV POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.  TREND IN MAV
POP FOR GOODLAND IN THE LAST THREE RUNS IS 37...40...AND 60.

HAVE NOT STRAYED FROM MAV FOR TEMPS...AND NO CHANGES TONIGHT BEYOND
PERIOD FIVE. /ENTWISTLE

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1036 AM MDT THU JUN 24 2004

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-251200-
CHEYENNE KS-CHEYENNE COUNTY CO-DECATUR KS-DUNDY NE-GOVE KS-GRAHAM KS-
GREELEY KS-HITCHCOCK NE-KIT CARSON COUNTY CO-LOGAN KS-NORTON KS-
RAWLINS KS-RED WILLOW NE-SHERIDAN KS-SHERMAN KS-THOMAS KS-WALLACE KS-
WICHITA KS-YUMA COUNTY CO-
1036 AM MDT THU JUN 24 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 PM MDT ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 96 IN GREELEY AND
WICHITA COUNTIES OF KANSAS. THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...TAKING ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP OUT OF THE
AREA. LIGHTNING...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY
THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

ACROSS THE REST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA...NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30
MPH WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS
OF UP TO 40 MPH. DRIVERS OF HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES...ESPECIALLY THOSE
TRAVELING ON EAST-WEST ORIENTED ROADS SUCH AS INTERSTATE 70...SHOULD
BE ALERT FOR THE GUSTY WINDS.

TONIGHT...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY
WEST OF A LINE FROM HAIGLER NEBRASKA TO LEOTI KANSAS. HOWEVER...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL AND STABLE...AND MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN WILL FALL. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THE ACTIVITY TONIGHT WILL BE
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE BACK EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR WILL SLOSH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
OVER THE WEEKEND.  SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO
THE WEST OF A LINE FROM TRIBUNE KANSAS TO YUMA COLORADO.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM EACH DAY SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN COLORADO.  ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE ON SUNDAY...MONDAY...AND TUESDAY.  PRESENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER COULD OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY THE
30TH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

JDK