Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Grand Junction, CO

000 
WGUS75 KGJT 192025
FFSGJT
COC037-192230-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
224 PM MDT MON JUL 19 2004

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR EAGLE COUNTY UNTIL 430 PM MDT...

AT 224 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. 
DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF WITH THIS STORM 
CELL. 

SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
WARNED AREA. RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING TO OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING 
INCLUDE GYPSUM CREEK ALONG VALLEY ROAD SOUTH OF GYPSUM.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE 
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS 
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY. 
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

$$
TGJT

000 
WGUS75 KGJT 192230
FFSGJT
COC037-192245-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
430 PM MDT MON JUL 19 2004

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR EAGLE COUNTY HAS 
BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...

AT 430 PM MDT...THE HEAVY RAIN HAD COME TO AN END SOUTH OF GYPSUM 
ALONG VALLEY ROAD AND THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED. 
THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. IF 
YOU DO VENTURE OUT THIS AFTERNOON...BE AWARE OF WASHES...CREEKS AND 
STREAMS AS WATER MAY STILL BE RUNNING CLOSE TO BANKFULL.  

$$

COLTON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
356 AM MDT MON JUL 19 2004

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS OVER EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO
UNDERNEATH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LOSE SOME
AMPLITUDE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES OVER THE
TOP OF IT. THE TAIL END OF A WEAK WAVE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN IDAHO
AND WESTERN WYOMING WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST
COLORADO TODAY. MODELS INDICATE SUBSIDENCE AND SOME DRYING ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE. THIS DRYING IS REFLECTED IN A
LACK OF MODEL QPF ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS LOOKS UNREALISTIC WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING OVER THE AREA AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING...ALTHOUGH TIMING
OF THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY PLAY A ROLE IN WHEN STORMS START
DEVELOPING. WILL GO WITH MORE OF A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH RESPECT
TO AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH. DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL INITIATE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND DRIFT OVER THE
LOWER VALLEYS AS HAS BEEN OCCURRING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER TO REMAIN FAIRLY
HIGH AND STORM MOTION TO BE SLOW. SIMILAR SCENARIO FOR TUESDAY
ALTHOUGH POPS HAVE BEEN TRENDED DOWN SLIGHTLY BUT WILL STAY ABOVE
MOS GUIDANCE. PERSISTENCE TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIODS. LINDQUIST

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...H5 HEIGHT PATTERN SHOWS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH RETREATING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS PIECES OF PACIFIC ENERGY BRUSH ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND
COLORADO. BY LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE HIGH CENTER BEGINS TO
PUSH NORTH OVER UTAH/NEVADA WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SEEN EAST OF
THE UPR RIDGE AXIS. AT THIS POINT...SEE NO SIGNIFICANT DRYING
DEVELOPING THIS PERIOD. RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM PREVIOUS DAY/S
RAINFALL WILL KEEP GOOD H7-5 LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE
MUCH FROM CURRENT MAX/MIN VALUES WITH 80S AND 90S IN THE VALLEYS AND
MAINLY 70S IN THE HIGH VALLEYS/ MOUNTAINS. DJN.83

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.CO...NONE.
.UT...NONE.

TAL/DJN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
545 AM MDT MON JUL 19 2004

COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-201145-
ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-ARCHES/GRAND FLAT-CANYONLANDS/NATURAL BRIDGES-
CENTRAL COLORADO RIVER BASIN-
CENTRAL GUNNISON AND UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER BASIN-
CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER BASIN-DEBEQUE TO SILT CORRIDOR-
EASTERN UINTA BASIN-EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-
ELKHEAD AND PARK MOUNTAINS-FLAT TOPS-
FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-
GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS-
GRAND VALLEY-LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS-LOWER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER-
ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS-SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-SOUTHEAST UTAH-
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-TAVAPUTS PLATEAU-
UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE-UPPER GUNNISON RIVER VALLEY-
UPPER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS-
545 AM MDT MON JUL 19 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
UTAH.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AGAIN TODAY...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY
CAUSE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF OR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN OR URBAN AREAS PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING...AND IN AREAS
BURNED BY WILDFIRES. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SMALL
HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VALLEYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT...BUT SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN RAINFALL...HAIL OR WIND REPORTS.

TAL