Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Grand Junction, CO

000 
WGUS75 KGJT 180849
FFSGJT
UTC037-181100-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
241 AM MDT SUN JUL 18 2004

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR SAN JUAN COUNTY UNTIL 500 AM
MDT...

AT 240 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EXTENDING FROM FRY CANYON 
NORTHWEST ALONG HIGHWAY 95...OR THE WHITE CANYON AREA. RAINFALL 
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH AN HOUR ARE LIKELY IN THESE AREAS.
THE STORMS WERE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH AND WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN IN 
THE CANYON RIMS RECREATION AREA...AND DARK CANYON. 

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO
HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO
FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

$$

TAL

000 
WGUS75 KGJT 181033
FFSGJT
UTC037-181100-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
430 AM MDT SUN JUL 18 2004

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR SAN JUAN COUNTY UNTIL 500 AM
MDT...

AT 427 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT PRODUCED THE HEAVY RAIN HAD WEAKENED AND 
MOVED NORTH...AND THAT ONLY LIGHT RAIN WAS OCCURRING OVER  
WEST-CENTRAL SAN JUAN COUNTY. HOWEVER...EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM 
EARLIER HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN THE FRY CANYON...WHITE 
CANYON...AND DARK CANYON AREAS OF WEST-CENTRAL SAN JUAN COUNTY. THIS 
INCLUDES HIGHWAY 95...WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 261 JUNCTION.

REPORT FLOODING TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY SO THAT THEY
MAY TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO CLOSE FLOODED ROADWAYS. THEY WILL
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND JUNCTION.

$$

TAL

000 
WGUS75 KGJT 181100
FFSGJT
UTC037-181130-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
500 AM MDT SUN JUL 18 2004

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR SAN JUAN COUNTY HAS
BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...

THE THREAT OF EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE 
WARNED AREA...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN 
OBSERVED...PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

$$

TAL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
245 PM MDT SAT JUL 17 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NEW MEXICO...WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING MOIST SUBTROPICAL CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
ANOTHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON IS UNDERWAY...WITH SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  A FEW CELLS ALREADY DRIFTING
OVER THE VALLEY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE BETTER SUN AND HEATING GOT THINGS GOING EARLIER
TODAY. BLANKET OF MID CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES SLOWED HEATING...
BUT STORMS ARE NOW FIRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EXPECT THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE AS A WEAK SHRTWV OVER SOUTHERN UTAH LIFTS ENE
THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. MORNING SOUNDING CONTINUES TO
INDICATE VERY MOIST CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.3 INCHES. WINDS ALOFT SUGGEST MINIMAL STORM
MOTION...GENERALLY TO THE E AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS WL RESULT IN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE STRONGER STORMS...WITH OVER 1 TO 2
INCHES POSSIBLE IN A SHORT PERIOD.  NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AGAIN
EXPECTED WITH WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS CONTG AND MINOR WAVES
RIPPLING OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RDG REMAINING PARKED
OVER NEW MEXICO. SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS WL PERSIST OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE CONVECTION WL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD. GUIDANCE
TEMPS REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  HOWEVER...PLAN ON GOING ABOVE
GUIDANCE POPS IN LATER PERIODS WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
PATTERN EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

RIDGE AXIS BUILDS SLOWLY WEST OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO
THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTH GFS AND ETA SHOWING A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER...WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AS
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.CO...NONE.
.UT...NONE.

JDC/MPM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
551 AM MDT SAT JUL 17 2004

CORRECTED DATE

COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-181145-
ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-ARCHES/GRAND FLAT-CANYONLANDS/NATURAL BRIDGES-
CENTRAL COLORADO RIVER BASIN-
CENTRAL GUNNISON AND UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER BASIN-
CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER BASIN-DEBEQUE TO SILT CORRIDOR-
EASTERN UINTA BASIN-EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-
ELKHEAD AND PARK MOUNTAINS-FLAT TOPS-
FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-
GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS-
GRAND VALLEY-LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS-LOWER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER-
ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS-SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-SOUTHEAST UTAH-
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-TAVAPUTS PLATEAU-
UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE-UPPER GUNNISON RIVER VALLEY-
UPPER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS-
551 AM MDT SAT JUL 17 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
UTAH.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF
OR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN OR URBAN
AREAS PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING...AND IN AREAS BURNED BY WILDFIRES.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ISOLATED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT...BUT SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN RAINFALL...HAIL OR WIND REPORTS.

TAL