Tornado Warning 76, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
300 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2004

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THIS EVENING IN CONVERGENT AREA ALONG SFC TROF
AXIS STRETCHING FROM KOGA TO KVTN...WHICH WILL SLOWLY SAG FURTHER
SOUTHEAST AS UPPER TROF CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  A SECOND AREA
OF FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IS ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM KOMA TO
NORTHEAST OF KONL...HOWEVER THIS BOUNDARY.  WITH HIGH DPS...SFC
BASED CAPES AVERAGING 4000-6000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF NEB.  CAP STILL
HOLDING WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NEB.  LOW
POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED WITH PROGRESSION OF SFC TROF AXIS
TONIGHT...BUT INITIAION MAY BE JUST BEYOND CWA BORDERS AND OVERALL
STORM MOTION IS SLOW.  IF STORMS DO MAKE IT INTO CWA...ISOLATED
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS/HEAVY RAIN EXISTS.

SFC BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE CWA ON TUESDAY WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE
CUTTING THRU NEB CWA.  AIRMASS REMAINS TOASTY SOUTH OF THE FRONT
WITH WARM 90S CONTINUING...BUT EASTERLY WINDS AND MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG BOUNDARY WILL HOLD MAXES DOWN TO THE NORTH.  TSTMS AGAIN
POSSIBLE LATE TUES ESPECIALLY EASTERN ZONES AS THIS AREA WILL BE ON
EASTERN EDGE OF CAP AND THERE WILL BE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY.  UPPER RIDGE AXIS RETROGRADES AND AMPLIFIES OVER THE
ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY AS TROF DEEPENS ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS AND
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.  IN NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN...SLIGHTLY BETTER POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO IMPEDE CWA
THAN AROUND THE PERIPHERY.  EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS WILL DRAW
MOISTURE IN AND CONTINUE TO HOLD BACK TEMPS.  A FEW MORE CLOUDS
EXPECTED AS WELL AS UPPER JET SLIDES SE IN NW FLOW...AND HAVE
LOWERED TEMPS FROM PREVIOUS FCST.

.LONG TERM...THU THRU MON. FEW CHANGES HERE WITH MAINLY TWEAKS HERE
AND THERE. HOWEVER...DID BEGIN TO ADD SMALL POPS INTO FCST FOR FRI
AND SAT AS RIDGE CONTINUES TO TO LOOK MORE LIKELY TO BACK OFF A BIT
AND RETRO BACK WEST...EASING CWA BACK INTO UP NW FLOW PATTERN. MDLS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT DECENT LL CONVERGENCE AREA FROM WRN PORTIONS OF
KS AND NE...ON N SIDE OF STRENGTHENING THERMAL LOW BY LATE THU.
PERPETUAL WARM FRONT BOUNDARY PROBABLY STAGNANT THRU CNTRL KS THRU
FIRST HALF OF DAY(THU) W/STRONG MID LVL RIDGING AND CAPPING GOING
ON. HOWEVER...UPSLOPE FLOW BROUGHT ON BY ELY AND SELY FLOW WILL
ENHANCE CONVERGENCE N OF SFC LOW...WITH BETTER
(SOME/INCREASING/ETC.) CHC FOR DEVELOPMENT OF TSRA BY THU NIGHT.
FRI...DITTO EXCEPT FOR SFC LOW/BOUNDARY PUSHED FURTHER S BUT
STRONGER MID LVL SW TO RIDE THRU THE NW FLOW...SO AGAIN SMALL CHC
INTO AND THRU SAT. SAT ON LOOKS TO EASE RIDGE EAST AND RETURN TO
MORE BLISTERING TEMPS BY BEGINNING OF WORK WEEK NEXT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

FAY/10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
619 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2004

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-131200-
ADAMS-BUFFALO-CLAY-DAWSON-FILLMORE-FRANKLIN-FURNAS-GOSPER-GREELEY-
HALL-HAMILTON-HARLAN-HOWARD-JEWELL-KEARNEY-MERRICK-MITCHELL-NANCE-
NUCKOLLS-OSBORNE-PHELPS-PHILLIPS-POLK-ROOKS-SHERMAN-SMITH-THAYER-
VALLEY-WEBSTER-YORK-
619 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING...MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80...AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO
NEBRASKA.  DUE TO A LARGE AMOUNT OF ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY...ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN
THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING
WINDS.  AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  IN
ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 TONIGHT.

LAWRENCE/FAY