Tornado Warning 12, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
218 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT GIVEN ITS A HANDFUL BY ITSELF. FOREMOST
CONCERN REMAINS RELEGATED TO EJECTION OF STRONG UPR TROF OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. IMMEDIATE SVR THREAT TIED TO INCREASING LL WAA OVR WARM
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MERGER WHICH IS SLOWLY MIXING NWD THROUGH
TIME AND ALG A BLUE HILL TO SYRACUSE LINE. HIGH CLD SHIELD THINNING
THROUGH TIME BUT HAD RETARDED DESTABILIZATION SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE
MORNING AND LOOKS TO HOLD OFF INITIATION ALG BOUNDARY UNTIL 22-23Z
TIME FRAME. INCREASING MID LVL FLW IN ASSOCN/W EJECTING UPR TROF AND
ADVTN OF STEEP EML OVRTOP DEEP LL MSTR PLUME HIGHLITE TOR POTENTIAL
ESP WITHIN ENHANCED BACKED LL CHANNEL N OF BOUNDARY AND EPS NE OF
DVLPG TRIPLE POINT INTERSECTION TOWARD 00Z. SIGNIFICANT TOR
POTENTIAL A REAL RISK AND LOOKING TO BE ALG A BLUE HILL TO YORK LINE
THROUGH 02/03Z. AFT THAT...INCOMING COLD FRONT AND DEEPENING SYSTEM
PROMISE HEALTHY DOSE OF RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY I-80 CORRIDOR AND
NORTH. COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN GIVEN SIG MSTR FLUX AND
FORCING BUT MOVEMENT LOOKS QUICK ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FFA.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER SYSTEM TO PUSH THROUGH
TONIGHT AND WILL CLEAR THINGS OUT FOR SUNDAY AND SHOULD CALM THINGS
DOWN.  SOUTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK AND WILL KEEP VERY
SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE AREA.  TIMING AND STRENGTH OF WAVES
IN FLOW UNCERTAIN.  WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON TO
WEDNESDAY.

WEAK RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE ROCKIES DURING MIDWEEK AS NEXT SYSTEM
TRIES TO ORGANIZE ON WEST COAST.  MODELS ARE TRYING TO GET HANDLE ON
NEXT SYSTEM.  MODELS TEND TO SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADDING PRECIP AT THIS TIME BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
SYSTEM GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND RELATED ACTIVITIES.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

EFFECTIVE JUNE 8 2004 THIS PRODUCT WILL HAVE THE ID CHANGED FROM
OMAAFDGRI...TO OMAAFDGID. FOR MORE INFORMATION CHECK OUT
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS/USE LOWER CASE LETTERS:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/PUBLIC/WMOHEADERS/CRPHASE1.HTM

T/KISNER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
326 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004

NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-231200-
ADAMS-BUFFALO-CLAY-DAWSON-FILLMORE-FRANKLIN-FURNAS-GOSPER-GREELEY-
HALL-HAMILTON-HARLAN-HOWARD-KEARNEY-MERRICK-NANCE-NUCKOLLS-PHELPS-
POLK-SHERMAN-THAYER-VALLEY-WEBSTER-YORK-
326 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SIGNIFICANT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ALONG A WARM FRONT DRAPED
ALONG THE KANSAS...NEBRASKA BORDER BETWEEN 5 AND 6 PM AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS INTENSIFIES IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EJECTING OUT OF COLORADO. ADDITIONAL STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN
KANSAS WILL MOVE INTO AREA WEST OF HIGHWAY 183 BETWEEN 5 AND 6 PM.
EXTREME INSTABILITY AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR
STORMS TO QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH A MODERATE THREAT FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...TORNADOES...SOME
SIGNIFICANT...ARE POSSIBLE JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. AT THIS
TIME...THE GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN THE
INTERSTATE 80 AND HIGHWAY 6 CORRIDORS...AND ESPECIALLY ALONG A MINDEN
TO YORK LINE. HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO PRODUCE ARES OF FLASH FLOODING
LATER THIS EVENING AS STORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THESE
DAYS WILL BE FURTHER MONITORED FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...
HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS MINIMAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS...LAW ENFORCEMENT AND SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD MAKE
PREPARATIONS NOW FOR QUICK DEPLOYMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STAY
TUNDED FOR LATER STATEMENTS.

KSZ005>007-017>019-231200-
JEWELL-MITCHELL-OSBORNE-PHILLIPS-ROOKS-SMITH-
326 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST ACROSS ALL OF NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
WILL ALLOW A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. THESE STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER DARK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.  THESE
DAYS WILL BE FURTHER MONITORED FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...
HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS MINIMAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

T