Tornado Warning 11, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
312 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004

.SHORT TERM...OBVIOUS CONCERN IS SVR POTENTIAL THIS EVENING. OF NOTE
IS EJECTING UPR TROF COMING OUT OF ERN WY ATTM AND DVLPG CONVN ACRS
NE PANHANDLE. OTR FTR OF NOTE REMAINS W/LEFT OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AND WARM FRONT FM ABT BBW TO SUX WHICH SEEMS TO BE FVRD AREA FOR
CONV INITIATION YET LATE THIS AFTN. PROFILER NETWORK SHOWING LL
FLOW BACKING FM ERN NE BACK INTO NRN KS BUT AS YET NOT ENOUGH MASS
CVRG TO GET ANYTHING GOING HERE BUT THINGS ARE PRIMED FOR SURE.
STILL THINK LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR INITIATION N NR OLD OUTFLOW/WARM
FRONT MERGER AND THEN DVLPMNT SOMEWAYS SWD ALG WK CONVERGENCE LINE
ACRS FAR WRN PORTION OF CWA NR OR SHORTLY AFT 22Z AS UPR TROF NEARS.
MID LVL SPEED MAX IN ASSOCN/W WY TROF AND NARROW BACKED LL CHANNEL
INVOF OF WARM FRONT PROMOTES A TORNADO THREAT GIVEN EXTREME
INSTABILITY WEDGE ACRS CNTRL/SC NEB. XPC ACTIVITY WILL ORGANIZE
QUICKLY INTO SVR MCS PROPAGATING E ACRS AREA EARLY TONIGHT.

AFT THAT...TOMORROW LOOKS POTENTIALLY EVEN MORE EVENTFUL. HWVR
MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTIES STEMMING FM TONIGHTS ACTIVITY PREVENTS ANY
REAL DETAIL ESP IN TERMS OF INHERENTLY HIGH SVR RISK.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. EXTENDED RANGE MODELS IN
RELATIVELY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO UPPER PATTERN EVOLUTION
NEXT WEEK...BREAKING DOWN STUBBORN ERN PAC RIDGE...ALBEIT PERHAPS A
BIT TOO AGGRESSIVELY.

REMNANTS OF WRN CONUS TROF CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND SHEAR OUT
SUNDAY AS UPSTREAM KICKER LIFTS ENE THROUGH PAC NW/INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...THOUGH IT LOOKS TO BE WEAKENING AT THIS POINT AS WELL.
ANY SATURDAY NIGHT CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO
THE REGION AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO SFC LOW EMERGING FROM
ERN MT. NOT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE FROM SATURDAY FOR MOST
OF THE AREA...SAVE FOR KS AND EXTREME SRN NEB COUNTIES WHERE
LOWER/MID 80S WILL REPLACE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS
DRY WITH ANY PRECIP FOCUSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF FORECAST AREA ALONG
SECOND SFC FRONT AND NOSE OF LLJ.

SECOND FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY W/ COOLER TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE PLAINS.  HAVE NOT GONE WHOLE HOG ON
DEGREE OF COOLDOWN MON/TUE SUGGESTED BY MODELS JUST YET GIVEN
AFOREMENTIONED CONCERN THAT THEY MAY BE BREAKING THE ERN PAC RIDGE
DOWN TOO AGGRESSIVELY. WILL NUDGE THEM DOWNWARD AND CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS. SMALL POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING W/ FROPA
QUESTIONABLE AS ATMOSPHERE LOOKS RATHER DRY...THOUGH WITH STRENGTH
OF UPPER WAVE AND EXPECTED POTENCY OF FRONT WILL LEAVE AS IS FOR
NOW. BETTER CHANCES APPEAR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY W/ UPPER
JET MAX OVERHEAD AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS BAROCLINIC ZONE IN KS.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKED OKAY FOR NOW...W/ A GRADUAL TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY AS FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON COOL SIDE OF BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM NW TO ZONAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

EFFECTIVE JUNE 8 2004 THIS PRODUCT WILL HAVE THE ID CHANGED FROM
OMAAFDGRI...TO OMAAFDGID. FOR MORE INFORMATION CHECK OUT
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS/USE LOWER CASE LETTERS:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/PUBLIC/WMOHEADERS/CRPHASE1.HTM

T/VII

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
539 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-221200-
ADAMS-BUFFALO-CLAY-DAWSON-FILLMORE-FRANKLIN-FURNAS-GOSPER-GREELEY-
HALL-HAMILTON-HARLAN-HOWARD-JEWELL-KEARNEY-MERRICK-MITCHELL-NANCE-
NUCKOLLS-OSBORNE-PHELPS-PHILLIPS-POLK-ROOKS-SHERMAN-SMITH-THAYER-
VALLEY-WEBSTER-YORK-
539 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AND PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A LESSER RISK
ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS.

A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED NORTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA
FROM A DEVELOPING AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST
KANSAS...WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA WILL LEAD TO EXPLOSIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING.

NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF
MCCOOK NEBRASKA...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY TO THE NORTHEAST
ALONG A BEAVER CITY TO GREELEY LINE THROUGH 7 PM. STORMS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

IN ADDITION...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAINS ALONG THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM NEAR KEARNEY TO GREELEY THROUGH MID EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE AREA AND ENCOUNTERS A VERY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. THESE DAYS WILL BE FURTHER MONITORED FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

T