Severe Thunderstorm Warning 249, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
315 AM CDT SUN AUG 8 2004

.DISCUSSION...NO SIG CHANGES TO CURRENT FCST. RELATIVELY WEAK LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS LOCATED IN CNTRL SD...N CNTRL NE...AND OVR THE NRN
FRONT RANGE OF CO...WITH COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM SD LOW...BACK INTO
NWRN NE AND INTO NERN CO. WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW IN SD E INTO
MN. PRE-FRONTAL TROF FROM LOW IN SD...S THRU CNTRL NE AND INTO WRN
KS. UPR LVLS HAVE TWO AREAS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY...LEAD FROM ERN SD
INTO NERN NE...WITH SPACE PICS SHOWING SECONDARY WAVE JUST PUSHING
INTO THE DAKOTAS. SOME SW RIDGING GOING ON AHEAD OF ALL THIS INTO
ERN KS AND MS.

AS THOUGHT 24 HRS AGO...LEAD UPR WAVE AND TROF PROVIDED MEANS FOR
CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS SD AND INTO NRN NE TONIGHT WITH SRN
PORTION OF ELEVATED STORMS THAT INITIATED OVER THE HIGHLANDS OF CO
PUSHING SE AND WEAKENING QUICKLY AS STORMS TRY TO RIDE INTO UPR LVL
WARMTH. NRN BRANCH HOWEVER CONTINUES TO CHUG ALONG TO THE SSE WITH
ERN MOST SHORTWAVE...WHILE RENEWED CONVECTION IS BEGINNING AGAIN
ACROSS WRN SD IN RESPONSE TO THE COLD FRONT AND MARGINALLY STRONGER
UPR LVL WAVE. ALL IN ALL...VERY MUCH AS PLANNED.

FOR TODAY...KEEPING CURRENT THINKING FOR THE MOST PART...WITH SOME
EARLY AM TS/SHRA THRU NRN CWA...THEN A FEW MORE AND STRONGER STORMS
INITIATING ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT UNDER INFLUENCE OF SECOND
SW. NEAR TERM MDLS CONTINUE TO WANT TO SPIN UP LOW ALONG FRONT INTO
CNTRL KS LATER TODAY...AND CURRENT UPR FLOW PATTERN AND SFC PRESS
DROPS WOULD SUPPORT THIS. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...PREFERRED AREA FOR LL
CONVERGENCE AND TS INITIATION WOULD BE NEAR/ACROSS NERN CWA...MOVING
S AND EXPANDING WWD THRU THE AFTERNOON INTO BETTER OVERALL
INSTABILITY...WHERE LESS CLOUDS AND BETTER HEATING WILL BE FOUND.
LOW TO MID 60 DPTS...SFC BASED CAPES NEAR 3000 AND ML CAPES
APPROACHING 2000 WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE COULD MEAN SOME SEVERE. SFC
HEATING NEAR/AHEAD OF FRONT WILL MEAN MUCH TODAY...SO WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CWA FOR BEST POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS WHICH
RIGHT NOW CONTINUES TO LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE SERN TO SRN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

BEYOND TODAY...NO SIG CHANGES TO REST OF FCST...AS COOL DOWN
CONTINUES BEHIND FRONT THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON
TUE STILL HOLDING UNDER GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT...ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY
DRY LOWER LVLS SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN...AND
ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE FROM TOP DOWN TO GET
PRECIP AT SFC.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
415 AM CDT SUN AUG 8 2004

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-091200-
ADAMS-BUFFALO-CLAY-DAWSON-FILLMORE-FRANKLIN-FURNAS-GOSPER-GREELEY-
HALL-HAMILTON-HARLAN-HOWARD-JEWELL-KEARNEY-MERRICK-MITCHELL-NANCE-
NUCKOLLS-OSBORNE-PHELPS-PHILLIPS-POLK-ROOKS-SHERMAN-SMITH-THAYER-
VALLEY-WEBSTER-YORK-
415 AM CDT SUN AUG 8 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA...
MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY TWO THIS MORNING...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
AROUND 30 MPH. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS FROM 30
TO 35 MPH...SOME LARGE HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER HOWEVER IS NOT EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

LATER TODAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...ACTING AS THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPMENT. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281...IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
ACROSS ALL OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EXPECTED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY 2 PM. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS...AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

TUESDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS HOWEVER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

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