Severe Thunderstorm Warning 176, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
955 PM CDT SUN JUL 4 2004

.DISCUSSION...A DEFINITE DIFFERENCE TONIGHT AS OPPOSED TO LAST NIGHT
IN TERMS OF CONV EVOLUTION THIS EVENING. GROWING CONCERN LATE THIS
EVENING IS W/MERGING SRN/NRN STREAM SW TROFS OUT WEST. NEW ETA40 500
MB HGT REFLECTION OF THIS LOOKS QUITE GOOD AND GIVEN ENHANCED BACKED
LL INFLOW INTO DVLPG LINE SEGMENTS BOTH WEST AND SOUTH ALG
W/APPRECIABLE PWS IN PLACE AND STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATE PLUME
OVERHEAD ALL SPELL TROUBLE OVR SRN NEB AND NRN KS. WILL BE UPDATING
SHORTLY FOR FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING BASICALLY ALG
AND SOUTH OF A GENEVA TO HASTINGS TO PHILLIPSBURG LINE.

&&
T
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE WAS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AS SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IN SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...A DRY LINE CAN BE SEEN IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO.  A SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS
ALSO LAYING ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...INTO EXTREME NORTHERN
NEBRASKA. CONVECTION WAS INITIATING IN THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES IN
COLORADO. LAPS 19Z ANALYSIS OF CAPE HAD VALUES UP TO 6300 J/KG ALONG
THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDERS...DECREASING TO NEAR 2300 J/KG IN
GOSPER AND FURNAS COUNTIES.   THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD HAS REMAINED
WEAK ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE IN WESTERN
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS.  UPPER LEVEL WAVE SHOULD HELP GIVE GREATER
DEFINITION TO THE STORM STRUCTURE.  LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE A
LIMITING FACTOR IN THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN OUR AREA BECAUSE
IT IS SO WEAK...IT MAY PLAY A ROLE IN KEEPING WIND POTENTIAL DOWN
AS THE GUST FRONT WILL NOT BE MAINTAINED CLOSE TO THE MAIN
CONVECTION AS IT MATURES. MID-LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE
MOVING OUT OF COLORADO...MAY HELP ORGANIZE CONVECTION INTO A MCS.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SINKING SOUTH THROUGH NEBRASKA ON MONDAY...
AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST NORTH OF IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
DROPPING DOWN INTO THE PLAINS. THE TWO SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT
FOR CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER TOMORROW.  TUESDAY THE AREA WILL BE BEHIND
THE FRONT...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY...AND RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS.  EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND NICELY TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY TO SUNDAY.  MODELS BEGINNING TO COME INTO
MORE AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED.  HEIGHTS RISE
WEDNESDAY BEHIND DEPARTING TROF WITH RIDGE AXIS BUILDING ONTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.  FLOW TRANSITIONS SOUTHWEST BY LATE THURSDAY WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS.  AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION EXISTS AND HAVE MAINTAINED OUR CURRENT LOW
POPS.  UPPER TROF DEEPENS IN MANITOBA BY FRIDAY WITH COOL FRONT
PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE DAKOTAS. MODELS TRENDING FARTHER NORTH WITH
UPPER LOW SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR HOW FAR SOUTH INITIATION POINT OF
CONVECTION WILL BE.  UPPER TROF LIFTS OUT OVER THE WEEKEND AND
RESIDUAL BOUNDARY MAY AGAIN FOCUS CONVECTION...OTHERWISE A GENERAL
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

NELSON/FAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
724 PM CDT SUN JUL 4 2004

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-051200-
ADAMS-BUFFALO-CLAY-DAWSON-FILLMORE-FRANKLIN-FURNAS-GOSPER-GREELEY-
HALL-HAMILTON-HARLAN-HOWARD-JEWELL-KEARNEY-MERRICK-MITCHELL-NANCE-
NUCKOLLS-OSBORNE-PHELPS-PHILLIPS-POLK-ROOKS-SHERMAN-SMITH-THAYER-
VALLEY-WEBSTER-YORK-
724 PM CDT SUN JUL 4 2004

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 2 AM CDT MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE THIS
EVENING AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA BETWEEN 8 AND 10 PM.
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN
DIAMETER...AND HEAVY RAINFALL THE THREATS WITH LOCALIZED
FLOODING POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE SOIL CONDITIONS REMAIN SATURATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH ISOLATED CHANCES FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.

ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION...LOG ONTO THE HASTINGS NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WEB-PAGE...

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GID (ALL LOWER CASE)

NELSON/T

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
813 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     TSTM WND GST     SHERMAN RESERVOIR DAM   41.30N 98.88W
07/03/2004  60 MPH           SHERMAN            NE   PUBLIC

            2 BOATS CAPSIZED - REPORT RECEIVED 7/4

&&

NELSON