Severe Thunderstorm Warning 171, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
323 PM CDT SAT JUL 3 2004

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS KANSAS AND NEBRASKA AS OF
1845Z.  SOME CONVECTION STARTING TO FIRE IN EASTERN WYOMING AND
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTING UP THROUGH EASTERN
COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS. FRONT/DRYLINE WAS EVIDENT IN EXTREME WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AT 19Z. ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...
TWO SHORT WAVES WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA CAN BE SEEN. THE FIRST IS
IN NORTHEAST WYOMING...AND IT IS SLOWLY SWINGING TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE SECOND WAVE IS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST.
LAPS CAPE VALUES WERE RUNNING FROM NEAR 900 IN WESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA TO 3000 J/KG IN THE EAST.

EXPECT SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF WYOMING TO HELP TRIGGER
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT IN SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
STORM WILL GENERALLY BE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...SO THEY
SHOULD FEED RIGHT DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE WAVE TOMORROW WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ONCE
AGAIN.  THE SHORT WAVE SEEN IN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON IS
FORECAST BY THE ETA/GFS TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND INTO
EASTERN COLORADO BY 05/00Z.  AS WAVE MOVES THROUGH NEBRASKA...IT
WILL HELP TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW EVENING AND MOVE
TO ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT.  STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY.  EXPECT WIDE SPREAD CONVECTION ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT ON MONDAY.  NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES MAY STILL SEE
WARM CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.  THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE
IN NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN TUESDAY BEHIND SHORTWAVE TROF.  TEMPS WILL
TREND COOLER FOLLOWING FROPA...WITH DRY WX IN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
WAVE.  HEIGHTS THEN RISE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH RIDGING AHEAD OF
DEEPENING LOW OVER ALBERTA...WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING THROUGH
DAY7.  LATEST GFS SUGGESTING OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RETURN OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL JET.  CHANCES ATTM APPEAR TOO SLIM TO WARRANT MENTION
ESPECIALLY GIVEN HIGHER PROBABILITIES EARLIER IN THE WEEK FROM
OVERNIGHT MCS ACTIVITY.  EXTENDED REMAINS DRY FOR NOW AND
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF PACIFIC TROF WILL BE MONITORED.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

NELSON/FAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
653 PM CDT SAT JUL 3 2004

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-041200-
ADAMS-BUFFALO-CLAY-DAWSON-FILLMORE-FRANKLIN-FURNAS-GOSPER-GREELEY-
HALL-HAMILTON-HARLAN-HOWARD-JEWELL-KEARNEY-MERRICK-MITCHELL-NANCE-
NUCKOLLS-OSBORNE-PHELPS-PHILLIPS-POLK-ROOKS-SHERMAN-SMITH-THAYER-
VALLEY-WEBSTER-YORK-
653 PM CDT SAT JUL 3 2004

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 2 AM CDT SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA WILL ORGANIZE AND MOVE SOUTHEAST AND APPROACH THE OUTLOOK
AREA AFTER 9 PM. THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...GOLFBALL SIZE
HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THE
STORMS. INITIAL STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE EAST SOUTHEAST AROUND 20
MPH...BUT WILL ACCELERATE AS THE STORMS ORGANIZE. LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...DUE TO SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...WITH ISOLATED CHANCES FOR LARGE HAIL
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.

ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 9 PM.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION...LOG ONTO THE HASTINGS NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WEB-PAGE...

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GID (ALL LOWER CASE)

FAY/T

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
830 PM CDT SAT JUL 03 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0823 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 N BERTRAND            40.61N 99.63W
07/03/2004  70 MPH           PHELPS             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LAWRENCE