Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
335 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. CONCERNS IN THIS TIME PERIOD
PRIMARILY PCPN CHANCES AND HYDRO CONCERNS.

MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS...W/ MAIN UPPER FEATURES AN ELONGATED TROF ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AN UPPER LOW OVER SRN CA...AND ANOTHER UPPER
LOW OVER ERN TX...W/ MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES FOUND WELL NORTH OF
FORECAST AREA. AT LOWER LEVELS...RICH 10-15C 850 DEWPOINTS EXTEND
FROM GULF COST TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. SFC FRONT AT 19Z STRETCHED FROM
NEAR KVTN TO KSNY.

SFC FRONT TO SLOWLY SAG E/SE THIS EVENING...REACHING JUST N OF THE
KS/NE BORDER BY WED AM.  EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
TONIGHT IN THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME...AND SLOWLY SINK SOUTHEAST WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. EXPECT THAT STORMS WILL INTENSIFY
AND/OR INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AS 30-40KT LLJ DEVELOPS LATER THIS
EVENING...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH S/W TROF LIFTING NE THRU NW
NM...WILL ALSO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS ACROSS NW KS/SW NE
LATE TONIGHT.  MCS EXPECTED TO HEAD EAST ALONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...REACHING WRN ZONES EARLY WED MORNING AND TRACKING ACROSS
REMAINDER OF CWA THROUGH THE DAY. STORMS MAY WEAKEN/DECREASE IN
COVERAGE FOR A TIME EARLY TOMORROW...BEFORE RE-INTENSIFYING BECOMING
MORE NUMEROUS BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN ZONES (SEE
BELOW).

IN TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SUGGESTS
MARGINAL HAIL/WIND THREAT...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH LATEST SWODY1.
SHEAR ACTUALLY IMPROVES TOMORROW AS S/W CROSSES AREA...BUT DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY A REAL QUESTION MARK GIVEN DEGREE OF CLOUD DEBRIS LIKELY
TO BE PRESENT. OF MORE CONCERN IS POTENTIAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.
PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES INCREASE TO 1 TO 1.5 INCHES W/ FFG IN WATCH
AREA AT ONE INCH OR LESS AFTER SOAKING LAST NIGHT. SEVERAL
STREAMS/RIVERS REPORTED NEAR BANKFULL THIS MORNING...WITH THE BIG
SANDY CREEK SPILLING OVER.

DESPITE CURRENT THINKING THAT THIS AREA WON/T SEE MUCH RAINFALL
TONIGHT...FFA TO STAY AS IS WITH EXPECTATION OF MCS RAKING THROUGH
THIS AREA TOMORROW.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE S THRU WED...REACHING
A LINE FROM SW TO NE KS. STORMS AGAIN LOOK TO FIRE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WED EVE...MODELS SIGNALING ANOTHER MCS TO FORM OVER WRN
KANSAS TOMORROW NIGHT TRACKING EAST ALONG/NORTH OF BOUNDARY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY 12Z ON...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT SHOT FOR RAIN AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
THE ARE GOOD H25 JET WILL SLIP NORTH...AND BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE
REGION WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION EVENT. PRECIPITATION WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN SATURDAY...AND LOWER 70S MIGHT BE TOO WARM.
IN FACT THE WHOLE WEEKEND IS LOOKING KINDA COOL FOR MID JUNE. NO
CHANGES THEREAFTER.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR
YORK...HAMILTON...CLAY...FILLMORE...NUCKOLLS...AND THAYER COUNTIES
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
KS...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR JEWELL COUNTY TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

VII/MORITZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
628 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-161200-
ADAMS-BUFFALO-CLAY-DAWSON-FILLMORE-FRANKLIN-FURNAS-GOSPER-GREELEY-
HALL-HAMILTON-HARLAN-HOWARD-JEWELL-KEARNEY-MERRICK-MITCHELL-NANCE-
NUCKOLLS-OSBORNE-PHELPS-PHILLIPS-POLK-ROOKS-SHERMAN-SMITH-THAYER-
VALLEY-WEBSTER-YORK-
628 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281...

...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR HAMILTON...YORK...CLAY...
FILLMORE...NUCKOLLS...AND THAYER COUNTIES IN NEBRASKA...AND FOR
JEWELL COUNTY IN KANSAS...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT.  THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS FROM THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
NICKELS...STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT IN WESTERN NEBRASKA
LOCATED FROM AINSWORTH TO MULLEN TO OGALLALA.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO INITIATE IN EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EAST INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA AFTER 8 PM.

ALTHOUGH THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL
AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS...THERE IS GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OF
AROUND 2 INCHES OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING
PROBLEMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AND MAY AGAIN
PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ANOTHER RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ENTERS THE FORECAST FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY..BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER DARK.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION...LOG ONTO THE HASTINGS NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WEB-PAGE AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GID

LAWRENCE/FAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1117 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     HAIL             COZAD                   40.86N 99.99W
06/15/2004  0.88 INCH        DAWSON             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HAIL WAS PEA TO NICKEL SIZED.

&&

LAWRENCE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1124 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     HEAVY RAIN       COZAD                   40.86N 99.99W
06/15/2004  2.00 INCH        DAWSON             NE   AMATEUR RADIO

            RAIN FELL IN 30 MINUTES

&&

LAWRENCE