Severe Thunderstorm Warning 159, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
905 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004

.DISCUSSION...H85 BOUNDARY NOW FIRING IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND JUST
CLIPPING OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES AT THIS TIME. THIS SHOWS UP VERY WELL
ON PROFILERS. MORE SHOWERS/STORMS SLIPPING FROM THE WEST AS A SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES. MOISTURE IS NOT BEGINNING TO SHIFT BACK INTO WESTERN
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. EXPECT THIS AREA TO INCREASE IN AERIAL
COVERAGE AS MODERATE LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP AND MORE MOISTURE BECOMES
AVAILABLE. ISOLATED HAILER POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. FOR
TOMORROW...POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING COULD LOOM LARGE
FOR EASTERN CWFA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS DRIFTED SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING
AND IS MOSTLY OUT OF FORECAST AREA. HAVE KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST SHOULD THERE BE SOME DEVELOPMENT TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT FURTHER
SOUTH DURING THE EVENING AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COOL
FRONT DEVELOPS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES.

AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST TONIGHT...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT. A LOW LEVEL JET
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PUSH WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...FURTHER ENHANCING THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
EAST ON TUESDAY...FINALLY MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

THIS FRONT WILL SETTLE IN JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THIS CONTINUES THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES ALSO PROVE INTERESTING DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH
SOUTH WINDS PUMPING IN WARM MOIST AIR. THEN AFTER THE FRONT PASSES
THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL AROUND 15 DEGREES FROM HIGHS TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...ZONAL FLOW FORECAST TO PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND.  A FEW
SHORT WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA IN FAST FLOW. ONE WAVE COMES
THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND WILL CONTINUE A SMALL CHANCE
FOR STORMS IN THE EVENING...AS IT APPEARS THAT STORMS WOULD FIRE TO
THE WEST AND MOVE TO THE EAST. QUESTION WILL BE ON THIS IS IF THERE
IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO GET STORMS THIS FAR. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS SMALL CHANCES AND WILL KEEP THEM GOING AS THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STORMS.

NEXT SYSTEM HAS A LITTLE MORE GOING FOR IT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY.  MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
AVAILABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO WORK AND WITH MORE UPPER SUPPORT...FEEL
CHANCES ARE BETTER FOR STORMS.  HAVE ADDED CHANCES FOR THE FORECAST
AREA AS FRONT COMES THROUGH IN A FAVORED DEVELOPMENT TIME.

SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL MAKE
TEMPS A QUESTION.  BEING THE LONGEST DAYS OF THE YEAR...SHOULD BE
ENOUGH SUN TO TRY TO WARM THINGS UP...BUT GIVEN NEW AIRMASS...TEMPS
SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL.  HAVE TRIMMED FORECAST HIGHS BACK
SOME...BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS AS MODELS DO NOT SEEM
TO HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON THIS YET.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

JCB/KISNER/MORITZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1116 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004

NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-151200-
BUFFALO-DAWSON-GREELEY-HALL-HAMILTON-HOWARD-MERRICK-NANCE-POLK-
SHERMAN-VALLEY-YORK-
1116 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...
BEGINNING FIRST WEST OF KEARNEY...AND THE MOVING EAST BY DAWN.
A FEW STORMS MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE...AND PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. IN GENERAL...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS BETWEEN 1 AND 5
AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO LATE
TUESDAY MORNING...AND MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

A FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY
HAZARD. IN ADDITION TO HAIL...A MOISTURE LADEN ATMOSPHERE AND
WEAK WIND FIELDS WILL PROMOTE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. SOME LOCATIONS
COULD TALLY OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. FLOODING MAY
BE A PROBLEM IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

THE REGION WILL ALSO SEE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION...LOG ONTO THE HASTINGS NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WEB-PAGE AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GID

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ072>077-082>087-151200-
ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FRANKLIN-FURNAS-GOSPER-HARLAN-JEWELL-KEARNEY-
MITCHELL-NUCKOLLS-OSBORNE-PHELPS-PHILLIPS-ROOKS-SMITH-THAYER-WEBSTER-
1116 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 4 AM...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...
WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE.
THE STORMS WILL FIRST MOVE INTO AND DEVELOP ALONG A PHILLIPSBURG
KANSAS TO ELWOOD NEBRASKA LINE. THE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST...WITH A
FEW BEING SEVERE. HEAVY RAINFALL ON AN ISOLATED BASIS IS POSSIBLE...
WITH A FEW SPOTS PICKING UP CLOSE TO ONE INCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO LATE
TUESDAY MORNING...AND MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

A FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY
HAZARD. IN ADDITION TO HAIL...A MOISTURE LADEN ATMOSPHERE AND
WEAK WIND FIELDS WILL PROMOTE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. SOME LOCATIONS
COULD TALLY OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. FLOODING MAY
BE A PROBLEM IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

THE REGION WILL ALSO SEE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION...LOG ONTO THE HASTINGS NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WEB-PAGE AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GID

NOAA/NWS/MORITZ/LAWRENCE

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