Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
140 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
SEVERE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT 18Z...A
SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM A LOW CENTER IN SOUTH DAKOTA
SOUTH TO A LOW CENTER IN EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS. LAPS CAPE VALUES AT
17Z WERE ALREADY BETWEEN 2000 AND 3100 J/KG.  THE CIN VALUES WERE
STILL HIGH ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

SURFACE LOW IN WESTERN KANSAS IS FORECAST BY RUC/ETA 12Z RUNS TO
MOVE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT.  MODERATE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN
THE 0-3KM LAYER BY 00Z IN EASTERN COUNTIES...AND JUST TO THE NORTH
OF THE SURFACE LOW.  ETA HAS THE SURFACE BASED CASE INCREASING TO
2000 WEST TO 4300 J/KG EAST BY 21Z. ETA CAPE FIELD SHOWS A WRAP UP
NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL COUNTIES. BY 06Z...THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT IS
THROUGH THE CWA. SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TORANDOES
POSSIBLE.  THE EASTERN COUNTIES THOUGH WILL SEE THE HIGHEST THREAT
FOR TORNADOS WHERE EHI VALUES BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z ARE GREATER THAN 6.
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXITING THE ROCKIES THIS EVENING...BECOMES A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT...NEBRASKA WILL BE SITTING
UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. CURRENTLY IT LOOKS AS IF ANY SHORT WAVES IN THE LOW
WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY AND BEYOND. PRIMARY CONCERNS IN EXTENDED
PERIODS ARE TEMPERATURES AND SMALL PCPN CHANCES.

GFSX/ECMWF IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT W/RT TO UPPER AND SFC PATTERN IN
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. SRN EXTENT OF NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF WRAPS UP
INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY EARLY TUE...THEN SWINGS
SE TUE THRU WED. AT THE SFC...FA COMES UNDER INCREASING INFLUENCE OF
SFC HIGH PRESS THAT WILL SLIP IN FROM THE NW. BULK OF PCPN ASSOCD W/
UPPER LOW SHLD STAY NE OF FORECAST AREA...AND HAVE MAINTAINED GOING
DRY FCST.  LITTLE IN THE WAY OF TEMP DIFFERENCE XPCD TUE TO
WED...WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT INCREASE WED AS UPPER LOW HEADS E AND
UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE LATE IN THE DAY.

HEIGHT RISES CONTINUE ON THU...W/ LEE TROF DEVELOPING AND RETURN
SRLY FLOW SETTING UP...WHICH PERSISTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED. SOME POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION W/ INFLUX OF
RICHER LL MOISTURE AMID WAA REGIME THU AND FRI NIGHT...BUT AT THIS
TIME WILL LEAVE DRY FCST ALONE.

AS FOR TEMPS...DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM OPERATIONAL MEX GUIDANCE
CONSIDERING POTENTIAL PCPN AND LINGERING DAYTIME CLDS...THOUGH 850MB
VALUES MAY SUPPORT AN INCREASE FRI/SAT...WHICH OTHERWISE LOOK TO BE
GOOD MIXING DAYS.
&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

EFFECTIVE JUNE 8 2004 THIS PRODUCT WILL HAVE THE ID CHANGED FROM
OMAAFDGRI...TO OMAAFDGID. FOR MORE INFORMATION CHECK OUT
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS/USE LOWER CASE LETTERS:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/PUBLIC/WMOHEADERS/CRPHASE1.HTM

NELSON/VII

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1123 AM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-301200-
ADAMS-BUFFALO-CLAY-DAWSON-FILLMORE-FRANKLIN-FURNAS-GOSPER-GREELEY-
HALL-HAMILTON-HARLAN-HOWARD-JEWELL-KEARNEY-MERRICK-MITCHELL-NANCE-
NUCKOLLS-OSBORNE-PHELPS-PHILLIPS-POLK-ROOKS-SHERMAN-SMITH-THAYER-
VALLEY-WEBSTER-YORK-
1123 AM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

...A MAJOR OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.  A VOLATILE
WEATHER SITUATION IS EXPECTED TO UNFOLD BY EVENING AS ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT...LARGE HAIL THE
SIZE OF BASEBALLS...AND THUNDERSTORM WINDS OF 75 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ALONG A COLD FRONT AFTER
2 PM JUST WEST OF A LINE FROM ORD TO CAMBRIDGE NEBRASKA...AND ALSO
ALONG THE DRY LINE JUST TO THE WEST OF A LINE FROM PHILLIPSBURG TO
PLAINVILLE KANSAS...WHILE A STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT OF THE ROCKIES.  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REACH LOCATIONS FROM
GREELEY TO PHILLIPSBURG BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM AS THE COLD FRONT AND DRY
LINE ADVANCE.  THE BOUNDARIES WILL CLASH WITH THE MOIST AND HIGHLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE AND TRACK
NORTHEAST AROUND 35 MPH...WHILE THE ENTIRE AREA OF STORMS MOVE EAST.

A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORNADOES EXISTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ENSURE STORM SHELTERS ARE PREPARED WITH
FLASHLIGHTS...BATTERY OPERATED RADIOS AND EMERGENCY SUPPLIES.

ALSO A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM FOR STRONG SOUTH WINDS
OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND READY
FOR ACTIVATION.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GID (ALL LOWER CASE)

FAY/NELSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED LOCATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
759 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1N HOLBROOK              40.30N 100.01W
05/29/2004                   FURNAS             NE   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREES DOWN.

&&

SJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
808 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0806 PM     HAIL             HUBBELL                 40.01N 97.50W
05/29/2004  1.75 INCH        THAYER             NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

SJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
821 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0821 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ARAPAHOE                40.31N 99.90W
05/29/2004                   FURNAS             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN. REPORTED BY LAW
            ENFORCEMENT FOR FURNAS COUNTY.

&&

SJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
824 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0821 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CAMBRIDGE               40.28N 100.17W
05/29/2004                   FURNAS             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN. REPORTED BY LAW
            ENFORCEMENT.

&&

SJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
825 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0821 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HOLBROOK                40.30N 100.01W
05/29/2004                   FURNAS             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN. REPORTED BY LAW
            ENFORCEMENT.

&&

SJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
839 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0833 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GOTHENBURG              39.65N 98.85W
05/29/2004                   SMITH              KS   UTILITY COMPANY

            ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH. REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE
            AND POWER OUTAGES. PEAK WIND GUST OF 58 MPH AT NPPD
            OFFICE BEFORE WIND EQUIPMENT BROKE.

&&

SJC