Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Hastings, NE

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
231 AM CST SAT MAR 27 2004

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUN NIGHT. INCIPIENT RAIN EVENT AND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL INITIAL FCST CHALLENGE. EJECTING LEAD PIECE OF INTENSE
LARGE SCALE SW TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST COMING INTO SW KS
ATTM W/RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF CONV CLUSTER FROM STOCKTON DOWN TO
GREAT BEND IN KS. LLJ CONTS TO RAMP IN ASSOCN/W LG SCALE HGT FALLS
SPREADING OUT INTO THE PLAINS AND UPR SPEED MAX EJECTING THRU THE
BASE OF UPR TROUGH OVR NM. SO IT APPEARS TWO DISCRETE PRECIP
MECHANISMS TAKING SHAPE TDA...FOREMOST BEING LEAD TROUGH AIDED BY
INTENSIFYING SPEED MAX AS THEY EJECT NE THIS MORNING AND SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN ALG STRONG COLD FRONT. STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT
LAST EVENING WITHIN CONTD MOIST SERLY FLOW WILL NEGATE SUFFICIENT
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION TO PROMOTE DISCERNIBLE SVR RISK...BUT PERHAPS
SOMETHING REACHING MARGINAL STATUS POSSIBLE OVR NRN KS AND FAR SRN
NE. OTHERWISE XPC TEMPERED TEMP RECOVERY.

POST FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION SURGE QUITE INTENSE THIS EVENING AND DAY
SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TIMING OF ITS ARRIVAL BUT THE APPEARANCE
NOW IS IT WILL ARRIVE TOO LATE TO POSE A PROBLEM. OTHERWISE XPC
RAPID CLEARING EARLY TONIGHT.

ON SUN...UPSTREAM SLIDER DIVING DOWN WRN SIDE OF INTENSE UPR TROUGH
QUITE COLD AND EVEN W/SCOUR OF LL MSTR PLUME...ANY BIT OF SFC
HEATING COMBINED W/FAVORABLE LEFT OVR CYCLONIC WRAP ARND MSTR BODES
WELL FOR SHOWER THREAT MIDDAY SUNDAY...OTHERWISE MUCH COOLER INTO
MON.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RIDGE REBUILDS IN THE WEST
EARLY IN THIS PERIOD AND SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS
THURSDAY. ANOTHER STRONG 5H TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST
WEDNESDAY AND BECOMES A MAJOR PLAYER IN THE WEATHER BY LATE WEEK.
TWO MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND...
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. HAVE CONTINUED DAYSHIFT TREND
OF ADJUSTING TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD...AS RTN OF SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
MAKE FOR DIFFICULT WARMING ESPECIALLY AS LL MOISTURE MAKES IT UP
HERE BY FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION IS A TOUGH ONE. WILL WAIT FOR THE
NEXT RUN OF GUIDANCE TO NARROW THE TIMING AND POTENTIAL SCOPE OF
PRECIPITATION BY LATE WEEK BUT LOOKS LIKE A STRONG SIGNAL AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NE...NONE.
.KS...NONE.

&&

T/JCB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
700 PM CST FRI MAR 26 2004

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-271200-
ADAMS-BUFFALO-CLAY-DAWSON-FILLMORE-FRANKLIN-FURNAS-GOSPER-GREELEY-
HALL-HAMILTON-HARLAN-HOWARD-JEWELL-KEARNEY-MERRICK-MITCHELL-NANCE-
NUCKOLLS-OSBORNE-PHELPS-PHILLIPS-POLK-ROOKS-SHERMAN-SMITH-THAYER-
VALLEY-WEBSTER-YORK-
700 PM CST FRI MAR 26 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST
FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA...APPROACHING SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WEST OF
HIGHWAY 183 NEAR DAWN ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE
STRONG WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH AND HAIL TO A HALF INCH IN SIZE.

TO THE SOUTH...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SHIFT NORTH TOWARD NORTHERN KANSAS
AFTER 3 AM. AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM MAY PRODUCE HAIL UP
TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER IN NORTHERN KANSAS.

IN BOTH CASES...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE ON THE
STRONG SIDE...WITH HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER THE
MAIN HAZARD. THOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

BY EARLY TO MIDDLE AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP ALONG A
COLD FRONT CUTTING ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY AREA AFFECTED WILL
BE EAST OF A YORK NEBRASKA...TO OSBORNE KANSAS LINE. ANY STORMS
WHICH DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY FORM INTO A LINE AND PUSH EAST. THE MAIN
HAZARDS WOULD BE HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER AND
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. ALL OF THE MAIN PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY
WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION SUNSET SATURDAY.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

10/MORITZ