Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Glasgow, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
230 PM MDT WED JUL 7 2004

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
FORECAST PATTERN STILL SHAPING UP AS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH
NORTHEAST MONTANA. ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH LYING ALONG WESTERN
EDGE OF FORECAST AREA. COLD FRONT STILL SCHEDULED TO PASS ON THROUGH
YET THIS EVENING IN GGW...AND LATER TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHEAST.
SPECIAL 18Z GGW SOUNDING NOT SHOWING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT WITH MORE TIME FOR ADDITIONAL HEATING
TODAY...STILL POSES A THREAT. SATELLITE ESTIMATED LIFTED INDEX
CONTINUES TO DROP WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND CAPE
INCREASES. BEST CONVERGENCE SEEN IN THE EAST...AND WESTERN EDGE OF
THE FORECAST AREA NOT AS UNSTABLE SO SEVERE THREAT LESS THERE. AT
ANY RATE...WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN
STILL A POSSIBILITY.

LATER TONIGHT...STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW THINGS
TO CLEAR OUT RATHER QUICKLY. HAVE TAPERED POPS AND ADJUSTED FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. BY FRIDAY...SYSTEM BECOMES STACKED AND REMAINS CENTERED
IN CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK IN AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE IN THE 70S.

FOR FRIDAY...WARMER AIR BEGINS TO WORK BACK IN AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AND LIFT NORTH. MODELS HINTING THAT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MAY RESULT IN INCREASED INSTABILITY IN THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON AND LEFT SOME LOW POPS
TO COVER THIS. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED IT EAST...BUT RELUCTANT TO REMOVE
POPS COMPLETELY. JAZ

..LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...
THE UPPER AIR TRANSITIONS INTO A PATTERN THAT IS VERY TYPICAL OF
MID-SUMMER AND USUALLY DOES TAKE PLACE THIS TIME OF YEAR. MODELS
SHOW THIS WEEKS UPPER LOW WILL SPLIT WITH ONE PART MOVING EAST OUT
OF THE AREA ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...THE OTHER PART BECOMES
STATIONARY AND WEAKENING ALONG THE OREGON COAST. THIS PUTS NE MT IN
A SW FLOW ALOFT...BUT WITH BUILDING 500 MB HEIGHTS. THERE WILL BE
WEAK SHORTWAVES AT LEAST...BUT IN THIS PATTERN AND TIME PERIOD
PREFER TO GO WITH A BROADBRUSH PATTERN OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY. EVENTUALLY...THE LOW ON THE OREGON COAST WEAKENS AND FILLS
AND IS REPLACED BY A DEEPER LOW FURTHER OFFSHORE. THIS ALLOWS THE
FLOW ALOFT TO TURN A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A
LARGE SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
EXPANDS WEST AND NORTH. MODELS ARE ALL QUITE CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN
AND WITH EACH OTHER WITH THESE IDEAS. THIS REDUCES THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT WILL PASS TO NEXT SHIFT FOR A
SECOND CLOSER LOOK BEFORE DROPPING DAY 6 AND 7 POPS.

500 MB HEIGHTS AVERAGE 580 DM...THICKNESSES IN LOW 570S WITH VERY
LITTLE CHANGE THRU THE PERIOD. THIS WILL PRODUCE HIGHS ABOUT
NORMAL...WHICH IS WELL INTO THE 80S. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE
WEAK MOST OF THE TIME FOR GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AS WELL. SIMONSEN

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
556 AM MDT WED JUL 7 2004

MTZ016>024-059>062-081200-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-DANIELS-
EASTERN ROOSEVELT-GARFIELD-MCCONE-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-
PETROLEUM-RICHLAND-SHERIDAN-SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS-WESTERN ROOSEVELT-
556 AM MDT WED JUL 7 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA

.DAY ONE...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION...REFER TO GTFSPSGGW OR WWUS85 KGGW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MTZ025>027-081200-
DAWSON-PRAIRIE-WIBAUX-
556 AM MDT WED JUL 7 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA

.DAY ONE...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION...REFER TO GTFSPSGGW OR WWUS85 KGGW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY THURSDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DNS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
651 PM MDT WED JUL 07 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 PM     HAIL             11 N VIDA               47.99N 105.49W
07/07/2004  0.25 INCH        MCCONE             MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN AND 30 MPH WIND GUSTS

&&

ST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
718 PM MDT WED JUL 07 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 N RICHEY              47.64N 105.05W
07/07/2004  0.00 INCH        DAWSON             MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            30 MPH WIND GUSTS

0648 PM     HAIL             RICHEY                  47.64N 105.07W
07/07/2004  0.25 INCH        DAWSON             MT   UNKNOWN

            0.55 INCH RAIN

&&

ST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
720 PM MDT WED JUL 07 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0719 PM     LIGHTNING        9 S LINDSAY             47.08N 105.18W
07/07/2004                   DAWSON             MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            45 MPH WIND GUSTS

&&

ST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
729 PM MDT WED JUL 07 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0719 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 N RICHEY              47.64N 105.05W
07/07/2004  0 MPH            DAWSON             MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            60 MPH WIND GUST WITH 1.50 INCH RAIN

&&

ST

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