Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Glasgow, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
230 PM MDT SAT JUL 3 2004

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
TODAY/S QUIET WEATHER WILL TURN WET AND STORMY TONIGHT AND LAST
OFF AND ON THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATING A STRONG SHORTWAVE SPINNING OVER WESTERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE THE ONE TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO MONTANA. LOWERING HEIGHTS ARE SPAWNING AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST. THESE STORMS ARE
SPREADING EAST AND ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE WESTERN ZONES THIS
EVENING. THIS AREA SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT...PROBABLY INTO
THE NE ZONES. HAVE INCREASED POPS ON THIS NEW THINKING. SOME STORMS THIS
EVENING COULD BE SEVERE AS WIND PROFILES LOOK FAVORABLE...BUT WILL NOT
INCLUDE THIS IN THE ZONE FORECAST WORDING.

AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
AND HELP FOCUS LIFT IN THE WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING...WITH THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS ALLOWING THE STORMS TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST.

THE INVERTED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY AS A
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSES SOWN FROM THE NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE SPINNING THROUGH THE AREA...ALLOWING
FOR SOME INSTABILITY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER UPPER LOW GRADUALLY PULLS OUT TO OUR EAST MONDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING IN. THIS SHOULD STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE WHERE
SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF BY THE EVENING. WITH THE ABUNDANT
CLOUDCOVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY FOR
THIS DAY. OF NOTE...THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR GLASGOW IS
61 DEGREES (SET IN 1993). NOTED THAT ETA AND GFS WERE DIGGING THIS
SYSTEM A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS FOR MONDAY...SO LATER
SHIFTS MAY FOLLOW SUIT WITH WEATHER AS WE DRAW CLOSER.  JAMBA

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER PATTERN THAT
WILL BE MORE ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE THAN USUAL FOR EARLY JULY.
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES ARE MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL. UPPER TROUGH
DEPARTS WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MON NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE
UPPER RIDGE BRINGING A DRY DAY FOR TUESDAY. MODELS BRING A STRONG
CLOSED UPPER LOW ESE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AND INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS...EXCEPT LAST NIGHTS CMC...WHICH IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH. LATEST
HPC DISCUSSION LIKES ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES...GIVING GOOD
CONFIDENCE TO THIS UPPER LOW. THE LEADING STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES
WED NIGHT AND HAVE RAISED POPS. WITH UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST NORTH
OF OUR AREA...AND MODELS INDICATING DOWNSLOPE DRYING FROM
WESTERLIES...WILL KEEP ALL POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY...BUT HAVE RAISED
A LITTLE AS WELL AS LOWERED TEMPS. A WEAKENING...LAGGING UPPER
TROUGH KEEPS LOW POPS INTO FRIDAY...THEN A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
BRINGS DRYING AND WARMING FOR SATURDAY. SIMONSEN

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

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