Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
335 PM CDT FRI APR 9 2004

.DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX CONVECTIVE STORM SET UP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
MESOSCALE MODELS NOT IN FULL AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT MESO ANALYSIS.
DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL SLIP SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORMING IN
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES JUST SOUTH OF THE
RED RIVER ARE BEING ERODED BY INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. AN AREA OF
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE RESIDES WITH THE OKLAHOMA BOUNDARY. A NEW AREA
OF WEAKER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS FORMED JUST WEST OF THE DFW
AREA...SITUATED SSW TO NNE...ACROSS MWL. CAPES ARE IN THE 1500-2000
J/KG RANGE WITHIN THIS AREA. AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM WEST TEXAS...THIS AREA MAY CRANK UP A FEW
STORMS. HOWEVER...THE OKLAHOMA BOUNDARY IS WHERE THE MOST ACTIVE MCS
WILL FORM. WE HAVE FASHIONED POPS TONIGHT FOR TH HIGHEST VALUES IN
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...AHEAD OF THE EXPECTED EAST-SOUTHEAST
MOVING MCS. POPS BECOME PROGRESSIVELY LOWER INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES.

WE HAVE PRETTY MUCH FOLLOWED MOS POPS ON SATURDAY...AND ALL THREE
VERSIONS FAVOR SOME LIMITED PRECIP NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
FINALLY...THE GFS OFFERS THAT ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
295 DEG K SURFACE WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WE HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR THIS EVENT.

MOS TEMPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED FOR FRONTAL TIMING. MOREOVER...WE HAVE
RAISED THE LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE
LOWER 40S IN THE DFW AREA. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL WIND
AND CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S.  THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
APPEARS TRANQUIL...UNTIL STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THAT A THUNDERSTORM EVENT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX   61  63  46  57 /  40  60  30  60
WACO, TX  64  74  51  59 /  30  60  30  70
PARIS, TX   56  57  43  54 /  70  60  20  40
DENTON, TX   56  58  44  55 /  50  60  20  40
MCKINNEY, TX   56  58  44  55 /  50  60  20  40
DALLAS, TX   62  63  47  57 /  40  60  30  60
TERRELL, TX   62  64  46  58 /  50  60  20  60
CORSICANA, TX   64  73  47  58 /  50  50  20  60
TEMPLE, TX   65  74  50  59 /  30  60  30  70
&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 800 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ZONES
TXC147...TXC277.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
258 PM CDT FRI APR 9 2004

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-101100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
258 PM CDT FRI APR 9 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM EAST OF WICHITA FALLS TO WEST OF BROWNWOOD MAY BE A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM
FRONT LOCATED ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND A DEVELOPING DRYLINE ACROSS WEST
TEXAS WILL ALSO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH WEST AND NORTH OF THE DALLAS FORT WORTH
METROPLEX. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE OKLAHOMA FRONT AND
ACROSS THE DRYLINE MAY EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO NORTH TEXAS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY...NEAR A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD
FRONT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF A PALESTINE TO TEMPLE LINE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN COUNTIES NEAR THE RED RIVER LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY NEEDED ACROSS
THE REST OF NORTH TEXAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 TONIGHT.

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