Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
311 PM CDT TUE APR 6 2004

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO FIRE OUT WEST IN RESPONSE TO COLD-CORE UPPER
LOW NEARING...AND DOWN SOUTH DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OF MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR.  STILL COULD SEE SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN THREAT. HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND DECREASE THEM MOST AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT (KEPT THE NORTHEAST LIKELY THROUGH EARLY MORNING).

COMPLEX...PROGRESSIVE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.
CURRENT PATTERN OF PIVOTING TROUGHS ALONG 50N...ONE NEAR NOVA SCOTIA
AND THE OTHER OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...WILL EVOLVE INTO ONE
FOR TRANSPORTING ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD.  STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL
DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING OVER ALBERTA AS THE NOVA SCOTIA TROUGH
RETROGRADES AND AMPLIFIES THE NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN OVER WESTERN
CANADA DOWN THE ROCKIES INTO ARIZONA.  RAPID CYCLOGENESIS TAKES
PLACE BE FRIDAY MORNING IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND TAKES A SOUTHERN
TRACK THROUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
SUNDAY.  THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES ALONG A
STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE... THUS WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON FRIDAY.  A STRONG LATE-SEASON COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL TURN
NOTICEABLY COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH MONDAY...AND WINDS WILL
BE UP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

AS THE COLD DOME SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL START TO PIVOT EASTWARD ON SUNDAY.  THIS WILL CAUSE
LARGE SCALE OVER-RUNNING OUT WEST EARLY SUNDAY THAT SPREADS OVER THE
CWA WITH A COLD RAIN DURING THE DAY.  ONCE THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES
EAST OF THE CWA...WE WILL HAVE SEVERAL DAYS OF NICE WEATHER.
ANOTHER FRONT IS POISED TO ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEDNESDAY.

PREFERRED AVN/MRF FOR THIS FORECAST. THEY HAVE BEEN BETTER FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX   56  70  55  73 /  60  20  10   0
WACO, TX               59  75  56  76 /  40  20  10   0
PARIS, TX              56  69  52  71 /  60  40  10   0
DENTON, TX             56  69  54  73 /  60  30  10   0
MCKINNEY, TX           56  70  53  73 /  60  30  10   0
DALLAS, TX             56  72  55  73 /  60  20  10   0
TERRELL, TX            56  73  54  73 /  60  20  10   0
CORSICANA, TX          59  75  56  75 /  50  20  10   0
TEMPLE, TX             59  77  57  78 /  60  20  10   0
&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
337 PM CDT TUE APR 6 2004

TXZ091>094-100>105-115>121-129>134-141>147-156>161-062036-
BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DENTON-EASTLAND-
ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-HILL-HOOD-HUNT-
JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMPASAS-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILLS-MONTAGUE-
NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-PARKER-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-WISE-
YOUNG-
337 PM CDT TUE APR 6 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...GENERALLY SOUTHWEST OF A BONHAM...GREENVILLE...EMORY
LINE. THE MAIN RISK IS FOR LARGE HAIL...WITH A LOWER RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING
...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND EAST OF A BOWIE TO BRIDGEPORT
LINE. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA. MOREOVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

26

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
638 PM CDT TUE APR 6 2004

TXZ117-118-070030-
PARKER-TARRANT-
638 PM CDT TUE APR 6 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE FOR PARKER COUNTY...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM LOCATED WEST OF WEATHERFORD NEAR GARNER WILL
MOVE EAST NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH TOWARDS PEASTER AND WEATHERFORD BY 730
PM. THIS STORM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HAIL BETWEEN 1/2 INCH AND 3/4
INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO
ACCOMPANY THIS STORM.

07/BB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
645 PM CDT TUE APR 6 2004

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST   ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 PM     HAIL            7 W WEATHERFORD          32.76N  97.89W
04/06/2004  1.25 INCH       PARKER              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
648 PM CDT TUE APR 6 2004

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST   ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0641 PM     HAIL            6 NW WEATHERFORD         32.82N  97.84W
04/06/2004  0.88 INCH       PARKER              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

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