Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1035 AM CST THU MAR 4 2004

.UPDATE...
WE WILL UPDATE THE ZFPFTW TO INCLUDE A HEADLINE FOR TORNADO WATCH
#22...FOR THE PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NW OF A
LINE FROM K7F9-KDTO. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO
REMAINDER OF THE FIRST PERIOD FORECAST. WE WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR ALL AREAS...WITH EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE NOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS WEST TEXAS FORECASTED TO MOVE NE AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA.
WELL DEFINED MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT PUSHING INTO WESTERN ZONES MAY AID
IN THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS ACROSS THIS REGION. IF THIS OCCURS...
LONG/CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 45-55 KTS...AS WELL
AS SFC BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1400 J/KG STRONGLY FAVOR SUPERCELLS
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SQUALL LINE. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES
WILL COME WITH ANY STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
LINE...WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS A GREATER THREAT WITHIN THE
SQUALL LINE. SFC WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN INDICATED IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST...AND WILL INCREASE TO 25-35 AND GUSTY. ORIENTATION
OF ISOBARIC FORCING WILL ALLOW FOR MORE OF A SE COMPONENT TO WIND
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CHANGE THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS AS
WELL.

65/DD

&&

.UPDATE...
725 AM CST THU MAR 4 2004

UPDATING ZONES FOR WIND ADVISORY ENTIRE CWA.  STRONG WINDS HIT
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE METROPLEX DURING THE PAST TWO
HOURS.  ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE A MESOSCALE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE... I FEEL THAT THE EVENT ALONG WITH
THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND
MIDDAY JUSTIFY AN UPDATE. 75

&&

.AVIATION...
520 AM CST THU MAR 4 2004

FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE VERY ACTIVE.  MVFR CEILINGS
WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 5
MILES.  IT APPEARS THAT THE IFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE
WARM FRONT (CURRENTLY NEAR A WICHITA FALLS TO ABILENE LINE.  SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SHOULD AFFECT
ONLY WACO AND DAL...WHERE VISIBILITIES MAY TEMPORARILY FALL TO
AROUND 3 MILES.  BEST ESTIMATE ON THUNDERSTORM ARRIVAL ACROSS THE
METROPLEX IS AROUND 17Z.  STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF ALL TAF SITES
BETWEEN 20 AND 21Z.  AFTER STORMS MOVE TO THE EAST...SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 18 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 26
KNOTS.  CLOUDS WILL CLEAR AROUND 00Z AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN FROM THE
WEST.  SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AROUND 15
KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX   70  51  66  44 /  90   0   0   0
WACO, TX               71  51  71  44 /  90   0   0   0
PARIS, TX              68  52  61  39 /  90  30   0  20
DENTON, TX             69  49  63  41 /  90   0   0  20
MCKINNEY, TX           68  51  64  41 /  90   0   0  20
DALLAS, TX             70  51  66  44 /  90   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX            70  52  66  43 /  90  20   0   0
CORSICANA, TX          71  52  70  45 /  90  20   0   0
TEMPLE, TX             72  51  73  45 /  90   0   0   0
&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 559 PM CST THURSDAY FOR ZONES TXZ091>095...
TXZ100>107...TXZ115>123...TXZ129>135...TXZ141>148...TXZ156>162...
TXZ174>175.
TX...WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR ZONES
TXZ091>095...TXZ100>107...TXZ115>123...TXZ129>135...TXZ141>148...TXZ1
56>162...TXZ174>175.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1155 AM CST THU MAR 4 2004

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-051200-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
1155 AM CST WED MAR 4 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS. IN
ADDITION...TORNADO WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL BUT THE EXTREME
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH 500 PM.

A SQUALL LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SWEEP EAST AND
NORTHEAST ACROSS ALL OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE SQUALL LINE WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES COULD
OCCUR WITH THE SQUALL LINE. SHOULD ISOLATED STORMS FORM AHEAD OF THE
SQUALL LINE...THE THREAT OF LONG-LIVED...VERY DAMAGING TORNADOES
WILL INCREASE. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL END WITH PASSAGE OF
THE SQUALL LINE.

SOUTH WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
TODAY. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

26